The Detroit Tigers, 88 games in -
The Tigers are 46-42, a game and a half behind Cleveland for the lead, which those two teams continue to swap every week. The Tigers have the best pitcher in the AL right now. Well, one of the top three, in Justin Verlander. Their biggest problem is that the good news ends for the pitching right there. The Tigers starting rotation looks like this:
Verlander - 11-4, 2.26 ERA, 143.1 innings, 138/31 SO-to-BB ratio, .187 opponent average, 0.88 WHIP.
Scherzer - 9-4, 4.90 ERA, 104.2 innings, 94/38 SO-to-BB, .281 opponent average, 1.47 WHIP.
Porcello - 7-6, 4.96 ERA, 90.2 innings, 51/27 SO-to-BB, .290 opponent average, 1.46 WHIP.
Penny - 6-6, 4.50 ERA, 110.0 innings, 47/35 SO-to-BB, .281 opponent average, 1.41 WHIP.
Furbush - 1-2, 3.08 ERA, 26.1 innings, 22/10 SO-to-BB, .264 opponent average, 1.29 WHIP.
*Coke - 1-8, 4.96 ERA, 78.0 innings, 40/30 SO-to-BB, .278 opponent average, 1.49 WHIP.
Coke is asterisked because he was a starter until last week, when he was sent to the bullpen and replaced by Charlie Furbush.
Looking at this rotation, it's somewhat frightening. Furbush aside, everyone is over a 4.50 ERA except Verlander. In fact, take a look at Scherzer, heralded as a stalwart #2 - his ERA matches Coke's, but his record is better, suggesting that he's been lucky with run support. Then again, he throws more strikeouts, too. One of my major concerns with the rotation, also, is Verlander's innings. He'll hit 150 before the All-Star break. That's a lot of innings and if the Tigers do win the division, they'll need him at his best in the playoffs. But is it realistic to think the Tigers can win in the playoffs? Looking at this rotation, tell me where the reliable #2 and #3 playoff starter is. I don't see them. This is an extremely mediocre pitching lineup outside of Verlander. But, it would seem, the Tigers knew that - they fired pitching coach Rick Knapp earlier this week after they got torched by the Mets and Giants. I don't know how big of a difference one pitching coach makes to another, mid-season. But it shows that they know where the problem is and that heads will roll. Both manager Jim Leyland and GM Dave Dombrowski are in the last years of their contracts, so it's make-or-break time for the Tigers - and it seems to me that will fall on the pitching staff, especially with their everyday batting order hitting over .200 and the middle of the order - Boesch, Cabrera, V-Mart, Peralta - hitting over .300.
The Minnesota Twins, 85 games in -
The Twins are 38-47, 8 games behind the Indians for the division lead. Their winning percentage of .447 makes them the fourth-worst team in the AL (ahead of only Kansas City, Baltimore and Oakland), and only better than another three teams in the NL (the Chicago Cubs, Houston and the LA Dodgers). Yet, if you look around Twin fandom, you'd think they were in the thick of a division race.
I'll be honest. The Twins are going nowhere. In fact, I think it would be heinously negligent of their front office to not trade away some of their expiring contracts (Kubel, Cuddyer, Nathan, etc) to teams who are buying in their playoff push. If they aren't re-signing someone next year, they need to trade them off and get some value. With their minor league barren (they have, literally, called up everyone worth calling up this year), they need to restock the cabinet and bolster both their depth on the field and their bullpen.
The Twins problems begin with injury. It's no secret. Almost their entire starting lineup has spent time on the DL this season and right now that includes their two best hitters - Jason Kubel (.310, their only player batting over .300) and Denard Span (.294). Justin Morneau (.225) is on the DL at the moment too, although his bat hasn't looked like it has in the past this year - but his exit further strains the infield depth, to the point that Joe Mauer is playing first base tonight for the first time in his Major League career. Mauer, also, after an extended period of time on the DL that was never explained very well, is only batting .223.
The best player the Twins have right now is Michael Cuddyer. He's had 10 RBIs in his last five games and is batting .294. He's also costing them $10.5M/year and is a free agent after this year. They may re-sign him - at less money, though - and they may not. But they have to trade him. It won't be a popular move. Cuddyer is well-loved as a Twin and he is enthusiastic about being a Twin. He plays any position they need him to play, without complaint or hesitation. He is the most popular Twin right now. But the Twins made a popular move last year, re-signing Joe Mauer to a bloated contract that they're already having trouble swallowing, one year in. Mauer's contract, perhaps worthwhile as a catcher, is inflated beyond belief when compared to what other first basemen or DHs make in the league. His value is catcher and if he doesn't play there, despite his skill, it's a gross contract. But it was the popular thing to do. Twins fans rejoiced. The Twins front office needs to make the tough decision here. Cuddyer can play almost anywhere on the field. He's a team-first guy and he has a hot bat. His trade value will never be higher than it will be during the All-Star Break this year. They have to move him.
Like the Tigers, the Twins have a problem in their pitching department - the primary reason why a division push is laughable. Even if the Twins were to somehow magically win the division again, they don't have a #1 playoff starter, let alone a reliable #2 or #3. Their rotation breaks down as such:
Baker - 7-5, 3.01 ERA, 110.2 innings, 104/30 SO-to-BB, .240 opponent average, 1.17 WHIP.
Blackburn - 6-6, 4.02 ERA, 105.1 innings, 54/29 SO-to-BB, .286 opponent average, 1.41 WHIP.
Pavano - 5-6, 4.19 ERA, 116.0 innings, 49/22 SO-to-BB, .280 opponent average, 1.30 WHIP.
Duensing - 6-7, 4.25 ERA, 95.1 innings, 68/35 SO-to-BB, .280 opponent average, 1.46 WHIP.
Liriano - 5-7, 5.06 ERA, 83.2 innings, 72/45 SO-to-BB, .227 opponent average, 1.37 WHIP.
Hard to find the ace in that group, although Baker is starting to really set himself apart. Like the Tigers minus Verlander, this is an average rotation at best. Unlike the Tigers, though, who sometimes mask their starting pitching problems with their solid batting lineup, the Twins best hitter on a given night is Ben Revere or Michael Cuddyer. Too many voids in the batting order end up giving the Twins more losses.
I had an argument with a friend before the season started. He insisted that the Twins would run away with the division. I told him that was possible, but I liked the Tigers this year - that if they faltered in any place, they had young players in Triple-A ready to go. I was buoyed by the level of competition the Tigers had at spring training this year. He was buoyed by a solid 2010 campaign. He laughed and said he didn't plan to put stock in young, unproven players - that the Twins lineup was a winner as it was. I agreed, but warned him that all it would take was a few injuries; something that I felt the Tigers would nurse a lot better than the Twins. And indeed, that's what's happened - with critical injuries flying around the Twins, their lack of depth in the minors was exposed and their record suffers. When the Tigers suffered injuries, more often than not, their depth in the minors helped make it little more than a bump in the road. Perhaps a fully-restored Twins lineup can win more games. But I don't think it'll be enough to win the division, make the playoffs, or win a playoff game if the unlikely should happen. For that reason, the Twins front office needs to man-up and start selling. Not big pieces, but their expiring contracts should be going out to teams who are in the chase, so that they can restock with some prospects. It won't be a popular short-term move, but the Twins are clearly not a team that's capable of winning right now and picking up a pitcher or two and some prospects seems a good investment for next year or the year after.
Around the MLB -
Tampa Bay 12, Minnesota 5 - The Rays avoid the sweep with seven runs over the eighth and ninth innings.
Milwaukee 3, Arizona 1 - Casey McGehee's 3-run HR in the seventh was the difference maker for the Brewers.
Kansas City 4, Chi. White Sox 1 - A seven-inning, one-run start by Bruce Chen powers the Royals to a series win against the White Sox.
Detroit 5, LA Angels 4 - Miguel Cabrera's clutch 2-run HR in the seventh put the Tigers ahead and avoided a sweep in LA.
Oakland 2, Seattle 0 - Guillermo Moscoso's seven-innings of shutout baseball and Scott Sizemore's 2 RBIs provided all the A's needed to avoid a sweep.
Washington 5, Chi. Cubs 4 - The Nats pick up the sweep on a squeeze bunt in the seventh.
Houston 8, Pittsburgh 2 - Five runs in the sixth motored Houston to the win, backing up a solid start by Bud Norris.
Cleveland 5, NY Yankees 3 - Jeter got a hit, moving to 2,997, but Justin Masterson pitched eight shutout innings to hold the Yankees while the Tribe piled on runs.
Atlanta 9, Colorado 1 - Jair Jurrjens became the second pitcher to 12 wins in six innings of one-run ball.
Florida 7, Philadelphia 6 - Mike Stanton was the hero of the day for the Marlins, smashing a walk-off HR in the tenth inning.
Boston 6, Toronto 4 - Tim Wakefield got his fifth win, 198 on his career, as he works towards his own record of 200 career wins.
Texas 13, Baltimore 5 - Alexi Ogando earned his ninth win while the Rangers bats went to town on the Orioles bullpen late, scoring in all of the final four frames.
Cincinnati 9, St. Louis 8 - After letting an 8-0 lead evaporate, the Reds took it back in the 13th, on Ramon Hernandez's RBI double, and held on for the victory.
NY Mets 5, LA Dodgers 3 - The Mets back a solid seven innings by Jon Niese with five runs, all scored with two outs on the board.
San Francisco 6, San Diego 5 - After tying it in the 8th, the Giants got a walk-off victory from Nate Schierholtz's homer in the 14th.
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