Monday, July 18th - The AL East Division Race Preview

The AL East - Business as usual.


(Standings as of July 18th)

Boston - 57-36
NY Yankees - 55-37 (1.5 GB)
Tampa Bay - 50-43 (7 GB)
Toronto - 47-49 (11.5 GB)
Baltimore - 38-54 (18.5 GB)


The AL East is, as usual, a two horse race.

Although Toronto and Tampa Bay are good clubs with solid lineups and a good thing going, as they say, they have to survive in a division with the payrolls of the Yankees and Red Sox - while this occasionally is feasible and does indeed happen, it does not appear that will be the case this year.

As some may remember, Baltimore started the season 6-0 and Boston 0-6.  There was much panic at the time.  Funny, those six games.  Right now, Baltimore is one of the worst teams in baseball with no real odds of improving.  However, I don't expect them to go on a major selling spree, either.  Quite honestly, if we see any significant baseball news with the Orioles attributed to it, I'll be shocked.

Toronto, sitting 11.5 games back, also seems unlikely to be selling or buying this season.  Despite having an All-Star starter in Ricky Romero and the league's home run leader in Jose Bautista, I expect everyone to stay put.  They have some relievers they could potentially trade, if the price is right, but I think it's more likely that they'll sit back and let develop what they have.

Tampa, at 7 games back, has a viable shot to contend and will likely continue to be a thorn in the paw of the Red Sox and Yankees.  Realistically, this year, I don't see it happening, but I don't think they're going to be major trade deadline players, either.  Tampa is a small-market team with little revenue to throw around, so they rely on their farm system to provide.  Big trades aren't their style.  If they stay healthy and play solid baseball, they could position themselves to capitalize on any long-term blunders the Yankees or Red Sox make going forward.  Their fate, though, really lies with how they do against those teams the rest of the season.

The Yankees will make this an interesting race, but their major concern right now has to be injury.  Rafael Soriano is out still, Alex Rodriguez is out til August a least, Joba Chamberlain is gone for the season and they have a number of other injuries scattered among their bench and pitching corps.  But these are the Yankees.  While they don't have a starter hitting over .300, most of their lineup is hitting over .250.  Meanwhile, they have the best ace in the league right now in C.C. Sabathia, who is chasing another Cy Young Award with his 14-4 record and 2.64 ERA.  The other starters have ERAs ranging from 3.43 to 4.15.  Only Sabatha has double-digit wins and triple-digit innings.  The Yankees' biggest weakness is their starting pitching beyond Sabathia, but as I mentioned with the Tigers yesterday - having that solid, undisputed ace is a huge boon.  The success of the Yankees depends on their health as a team not degrading any further - but I think even so, they're destined for second.

Like the Yankees, the currently leading Red Sox are being dogged by injury, particularly to their pitching.  After Carl Crawford, out with a hamstring strain, they've also temporarily lost Jon Lester, Bobby Jenks, Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett for the moment, although Beckett and Lester are not expected to miss any time (as evidenced by Beckett's start last night).  The Red Sox have power and consistency all the way down their lineup - starting with Adrian Gonzalez, who leads the team with 77 RBIs and a .342 batting average.  Beyond that, almost all of their starters are above .250, with a couple guys batting under it, in the .240 range.  The Red Sox, arguably, have a solid two-man top to the rotation, with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.  Beckett is 8-3 with a 2.12 ERA, Lester 10-4 with a 3.31 ERA.  The only starter looking particularly unreliable is John Lackey and his 6.70 ERA.  The Red Sox could pursue pitching help at the trade deadline - but may be content to stand pat, and given the production of their lineup and the reliability of the majority of the pitching staff, I think either way, we're looking at the AL East champ, even if they did start out 0-6.  What I like about the Red Sox, though, is the grit they displayed last night, holding up and holding on to take a scoreless game 16 - SIXTEEN - innings and get the win.

Around the MLB -


Detroit 4, Chi. White Sox 3 - After allowing 3 runs in the second inning, Brad Penny locked down and kept the White Sox off the board.
NY Yankees 7, Toronto 2 - Phil Hughes returned to start for the Yankees and worked six innings of two-run ball to secure the win.
Philadelphia 8, NY Mets 5 - Kyle Kendrick piched six shutout innings for the Phils, only giving up a run in the seventh before the Phillies' bullpen almost let the game slip away.
Cincinnati 3, St. Louis 1 - The Reds rallied for a run in each of the sixth, seventh and eighth innings to take the series from the Cards.
Baltimore 8, Cleveland 3 - Mitch Atkins gave up three runs in the first, but the Orioles bullpen stymied the Tribe, holding them to no more and letting four Oriole home runs take care of the rest.
Atlanta 9, Washington 8 - Freddie Freeman hit the walk-off RBI single to give the Braves the series win.
Pittsburgh 7, Houston 5 - With the 4-4 tie carrying into extra innings, it was lead-off man Alex Presley's 3 RBIs, including the eventual game-winner, that sparked the Pirates to victory.
Minnesota 4, Kansas City 3 - Jim Thome's three-run HR in the sixth gave the Twins all the late-game run support they needed for the bullpen to hold on to the victory.
Florida 7, Chi. Cubs 5 - After the Cubs plated four in the first two innings, it was six innings of the Marlins bullpen holding tight, allowing only one additional run.
Milwaukee 4, Colorado 3 - The Brewers gut out another road victory, outlasting the Rockies, who came within one run of a comeback victory in the ninth.
Oakland 9, LA Angels 1 - Gio Gonzalez threw seven shutout innings, backed up by his team's bats - who scored eight of their nine runs in the first frame.
San Francisco 4, San Diego 3 - Matt Cain and Mat Latos left a 3-3 tie when they exited in the sixth and seventh (respectively), which went into the 11th inning - when a squeeze bunt gave the Giants the run they needed.
Arizona 4, LA Dodgers 1 - Daniel Hudson collected his tenth win on the year with a one-run, five-hit complete game suffocation of the Dodgers, as well as his first career home run.
Texas 3, Seattle 1 - Matt Harrison got run support in the form of a 3-run HR in the second, which helped the Rangers roll to their 11th straight win and the Mariners to their 9th straight loss.
Boston 1, Tampa Bay 0 - Last night's epic duel went fifteen scoreless innings, with starters Josh Beckett and Jeff Niemann pitching eight innings a-piece.  Dustin Pedrioa broke the tie with an RBI single on his seventh at-bat.