Pierce's Picks - Week 16

It's been an eventful season and it's winding down. The playoff pictures are mostly clear, but there's still plenty of excitement to be had.

I went a rough 8-8 last week, taking my season mark to 142-82.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
Carolina (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)

Saturday Night -
Dallas (5-9) @ Arizona (4-10)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New England (12-2) @ Buffalo (4-10)
NY Jets (10-4) @ Chicago (10-4)
Baltimore (10-4) @ Cleveland (5-9)
San Francisco (5-9) @ St. Louis (6-8)
Detroit (4-10) @ Miami (7-7)
Washington (5-9) @ Jacksonville (8-6)
Tennessee (5-9) @ Kansas City (9-5)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Indianapolis (8-6) @ Oakland (7-7)
Houston (5-9) @ Denver (3-11)
San Diego (8-6) @ Cincinnati (3-11)
Seattle (6-8) @ Tampa Bay (8-6)
NY Giants (9-5) @ Green Bay (8-6)

Sunday Night -
Minnesota (5-9) @ Philadelphia (10-4)

Monday Night -
New Orleans (10-4) @ Atlanta (12-2)

That's a great Monday Night matchup there, but I'm not betting against the Falcons in their dome, no way. Meanwhile, I'm starting to feel bad for the Vikings - that's a nice run on national TV they've got going, at a time when the team has really just fallen to pieces. I'm amused by the NFL Network's various attempts to sell the Panthers/Steelers game... ouch. I'm not seeing a lot of upsets this week, I think most teams are plotted on their course. I do like the Jets over the Bears, though, as they regain their swagger. I also like Green Bay over the Giants with Aaron Rodgers playing. I think the Rams put the nail in the 49ers season (finally) as they march to 8-8 and the NFC West title. I also like the Lions to notch a 3rd-straight win against a Dolphins team incapable of winning on their own turf, although I admit I like them better with Drew Stanton than Shaun Hill right now, who reportedly took 1st-team reps in practice today. I like Oakland to upset the Colts, though... I don't buy the Colts and I think a team with upfront toughness like the Raiders has a legitimate shot to pound them. I'm tempted to pick Denver over Houston, as I think Tebow will gut that team to at least one win while he's starting, but... that defense is horrible and I expect the Texans to shred 'em no matter what Tebow does.

The Draft Race is on. Carolina has the inside track on the 1st overall pick and I think they'll hold onto it. It'll be interesting to see, though, if Denver and Cincinnati remain the 2/3 or if they win a game or two and let the 4-win teams have a track at the top 3.

My hat's off to Devin Hester of the Bears - 14 KR/PR TDs in 5 seasons is actually a bit misleading... he didn't score any KR/PR TDs in two of those five seasons when the Bears tried to convert him to a full-time WR (and subsequently didn't make the playoffs). So in reality, that's 14 KR/PR TDs in 3 seasons as a full-time returner. What a talent. And what humility - I saw his post-game press conference and he wanted to make sure his 10 special teams teammates got as much glory as he did. It was really something to see him get choked up when a reporter asked him how he felt about those guys. As electric as a guy like DeSean Jackson is, it's clear right there that he's got nothing on Hester in the character department. Congratulations to Hester - who will undoubtedly add much, much more to that current record total.

Pierce's Picks - Week 15

Last week was an impressive 13-3, improving my season mark to 134-74.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
San Francisco (5-8) @ San Diego (7-6)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Cleveland (5-8) @ Cincinnati (2-11)
Washington (5-8) @ Dallas (4-9)
Houston (5-8) @ Tennessee (5-8)
Jacksonville (8-5) @ Indianapolis (7-6)
Kansas City (8-5) @ St. Louis (6-7)
Buffalo (3-10) @ Miami (7-6)
Detroit (3-10) @ Tampa Bay (8-5)
Arizona (4-9) @ Carolina (1-12)
New Orleans (10-3) @ Baltimore (9-4)
Philadelphia (9-4) @ NY Giants (9-4)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Atlanta (11-2) @ Seattle (6-7)
NY Jets (9-4) @ Pittsburgh (10-3)
Denver (3-10) @ Oakland (6-7)

Sunday Night -
Green Bay (8-5) @ New England (11-2)

Monday Night -
Chicago (9-4) @ Minnesota (5-8)

Where to begin... I'd like Kansas City if Matt Cassel were healthy, but he's not, so St. Louis gets a big win there in their quest to win the worst division in football. The Jets/Steelers matchup looked good a couple weeks ago, but you have to believe the Steelers defense has a field day with the Jets. If Green Bay can't put Aaron Rodgers on the field, they don't hold a candle to the Patriots and their slim playoff hopes are snuffed out. I think the Lions have a fair shit at breaking their road losing streak against a bruised and banged-up Bucs defense, but I'm still not betting on them on the road. The Vikings look abysmal and I don't see that improving, sadly, especially not outside in the cold, as they should be Monday Night. Jacksonville against Indianapolis for the division should be a fun game, but I like the Jags to get over the hump against a Colts team missing too many parts to function efficiently. Miami plays poorly at home, Buffalo could play spoiler there. I think Dallas gets revenge for their most humiliating loss earlier this season against Washington. I think Cincinnati picks up another win because, as dysfunctional as that team is, Jake Delhomme is simply awful and I can't bet on a team playing him to win again, ever. Which is sad, because I won my first fantasy football championship with him as my quarterback. If Colt McCoy were playing, I'd like the Browns in this one, but he's not, so it's all Bengals. Big game for the NFC East this weekend too, as it comes down to this - and I like the Giants. They almost beat Philadelphia last time, if not for an unfortunate Eli Manning fumble. I think they win at home and take the division.

Also, I'm going to say it here first, my first draft prediction for 2011 - Andrew Luck of Stanford will not declare and will be quarterbacking Stanford next season.

Pierce's Picks - Week 14

Last week was 11-5, putting me at 121-71 on the season thusfar.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
Indianapolis (6-6) @ Tennessee (5-7)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Cleveland (5-7) @ Buffalo (2-10)
Green Bay (8-4) @ Detroit (2-10)
NY Giants (8-4) @ Minnesota (5-7)
Cincinnati (2-10) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Tampa Bay (7-5) @ Washington (5-7)
Atlanta (10-2) @ Carolina (1-11)
Oakland (6-6) @ Jacksonville (7-5)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (6-6) @ San Francisco (4-8)
St. Louis (6-6) @ New Orleans (9-3)
New England (10-2) @ Chicago (9-3)
Miami (6-6) @ NY Jets (9-3)
Denver (3-9) @ Arizona (3-9)
Kansas City (8-4) @ San Diego (6-6)

Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (8-4) @ Dallas (4-8)

Monday Night -
Baltimore (8-4) @ Houston (5-7)

Big win if the Patriots can beat the Bears in Soldier Field, I think. Do the Jets bounce back against Miami? I think so. Dallas is a possible trap for Philly, as are the Lions for the Packers, but I think the better team wins in both. KC/SD could be a very good game... Indy's season goes down in flames if they lose to Tennessee. St. Louis could make a statement with a win against the Saints. Lots of losing teams at home against winning teams... there will be some upsets, but it's hard to see where.

Pierce's Picks - Week 13

I gambled on my Lions last week and the other traditional Thanksgiving team, the Cowboys, last week, against my better judgment, and paid for it with two losses. As a result, I went 9-7 last week.

On the season, that means I'm 110-66.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
Houston (5-6) @ Philadelphia (7-4)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (8-3) @ Cincinnati (2-9)
Chicago (8-3) @ Detroit (2-9)
San Francisco (4-7) @ Green Bay (7-4)
Jacksonville (6-5) @ Tennessee (5-6)
Denver (3-8) @ Kansas City (7-4)
Cleveland (4-7) @ Miami (6-5)
Buffalo (2-9) @ Minnesota (4-7)
Washington (5-6) @ NY Giants (7-4)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Oakland (5-6) @ San Diego (6-5)
Atlanta (9-2) @ Tampa Bay (7-4)
Carolina (1-10) @ Seattle (5-6)
St. Louis (5-6) @ Arizona (3-8)
Dallas (3-8) @ Indianapolis (6-5)

Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (8-3) @ Baltimore (8-3)

Monday Night -
NY Jets (9-2) @ New England (9-2)

What a slate of primetime games this week. Well, not so much HOU/PHI (really, Houston's defense against Philly's offense? Go go Eagles for fantasy this week!). But that BAL/PIT and that NYJ/NE game... both of those are huge. Possibly the four best teams in the NFL there and both games will have huge impacts on those division races. Can't ask for better primetime games than that at this stage of the season. If Minnesota beats Buffalo, I'll buy into them a little right now, but Buffalo is one scrappy team and they keep pushing everyone they play to the max. I have more respect for them than the Vikings right now, so we'll see if they make good on it. I don't like the Lions to win, but the Bears should be wary of that as a trap game... I want to believe it, but that Patriots game left a really bad taste in my mouth. I could see Seattle losing to the Panthers, possibly, too. Also, Colts beware, but I expect them to play angry after the Chargers embarrassed them. Tennessee won't win another game until they have a credible QB starting again.

What is the NFL thinking?

I've been ruminating on this for a little while, because all in all, I'm very confused. The NFL, this year, has had a very firm stance on player safety. This has turned into the manifestation of some pretty egregious fines for men who are, for all intents and purposes, just playing the game the way they've been taught. No one has been singled out more than James Harrison of the Steelers on this matter, who was fined again this week for a great hit on Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Buffalo Bills - a hit that this writer thinks was not late, not dirty and just an example of a great pass rusher making a solid hit and trying to make a play. As I mentioned, for his efforts, he was fined.

What staggers me the most on this is that, on the same week, Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan and Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson shed their helmets and started beating on each other like they were on ice, not a field and were levied the same fine as Harrison afterwards. Richard Seymour of the Raiders punched Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers right in the face during a game and was fined similarly. What I don't understand is how the league can be so heavy-handed in doling out fines on guys who are just trying to play the game, but basically give guys who are throwing punches little more than slaps on the wrist.

I'm of the opinion that anyone who throws a punch or otherwise displays violent acts that have no part of the game of football should be fined significantly - I'm talking six figures, not five - and suspended for at least one game, if not more. I find it astounding that men brawling on the field is somehow acceptable - and the low fines being levied for it encourage it. Trust me on this - if Richard Seymour had been suspended for a full game after throwing his punch at Big Ben, I have a feeling Finnegan and Johnson might have reconsidered their little game of Punch-Out.

As for the big hits thing, well, that's gotten out of hand, too, but I'll talk about that another time. But never before in an NFL season have I seen so many flags thrown arbitrarily. Hines Ward spoke out against it this week and so has Brian Urlacher of the Bears. One of these flags is going to make a huge difference in a playoff game. I think Troy Polamalu - and Urlacher - suggested the best idea - a committee of NFL executives, personnel men and retired players who evaluate and decide on fines. As it is, these fines are handed out in a way that seems, at best, as arbitrarily as the flags being thrown.

Coaches on the Hot Seat

Ah, a favorite late-season and off-season topic - the coaching carousel - who stays, who goes. Or in this case, who will probably go. The below are all guys I think need to find new teams or step back down to coordinator:
(In no particular order)

Mike Singletary - San Francisco 49ers. Sorry Mike. I love his enthusiasm and the vigor he brings to the game, but I think it's clear he's in over his head. He reminds me of Rod Marinelli in his last season as Lions coach - out of his depth, repeating the same mantra over and over as his team continues to flounder. Marinelli is thriving as a defensive coordinator in Chicago now. I think Singletary would benefit from a similar move.

Gary Kubiak - Houston Texans. Too many years of no progress. This team continues to stay stuck at .500 or a game within it. Time to move on. This team is too talented to be .500 and be content about it and their defense is underperforming to be ranked as low as it is.

Jack Del Rio - Jacksonville Jaguars. Unless they have a huge surge to end the season and make the playoffs, virtually the same case as Kubiak. This team is almost always at .500 or one game above/below it. No progress over too much time. Move on.

John Fox - Carolina Panthers. His contract is up at the end of the year anyway, but I have to believe he's counting the days til he can walk out that door and has no desire to stay anyway.

Marvin Lewis - Cincinnati Bengals. Same as Fox, only amplified times ten or so.

Norv Turner - San Diego Chargers. Win a playoff game or else. They fired a better coach for not winning playoff games after a 14-2 season. If Turner can't find postseason success, they need to move on. His inability to get them playing good football until November is of concern, also.

Ken Whisenhunt - Arizona Cardinals. He took over a good team with good veteran leadership, but those veterans are gone now. Can he keep this team competitive without Kurt Warner? I give him another year after this one to find out, or I chalk up his success to Warner's skill at QB.

Josh McDaniels - Denver Broncos. Every coach deserves 3 years. But starting 6-0 and being a .250 team after that sort of sets an expectation early. One more year is deserved here, but if the Broncos aren't over .500 next year, I think it maybe safe to let him go.

Jim Schwartz - Detroit Lions. As above, everyone deserves 3 years. But the Lions are more talented than they have been in a long time and still lose games. I question their fundamentals, their mental toughness and their discipline. Schwartz needs to pull this team to .500 or better next year or I question his ability to remain a head coach.