Pierce's Picks - Week 12

Ahh, Thanksgiving. A hallowed time when it comes to football, particularly for Detroiters like me. For me, football is as entwined with Thanksgiving as turkey and family are. Football has happened in Detroit since 1934 and I think a lot of people don't realize what it means to us.

Last week I went 12-4, putting me at 101-59 on the year so far. Without further ado, on to the picks... Winners in gold.

Thanksgiving Day -
New England (8-2) @ Detroit (2-8)
New Orleans (7-3) @ Dallas (3-7)
Cincinnati (2-8) @ NY Jets (8-2)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Green Bay (7-3) @ Atlanta (8-2)
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Buffalo (2-8)
Carolina (1-9) @ Cleveland (3-7)
Jacksonville (6-4) @ NY Giants (6-4)
Minnesota (3-7) @ Washington (5-5)
Tennessee (5-5) @ Houston (4-6)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (6-4) @ Seattle (5-5)
Miami (5-5) @ Oakland (5-5)
Philadelphia (7-3) @ Chicago (7-3)
Tampa Bay (7-3) @ Baltimore (7-3)
St. Louis (4-6) @ Denver (3-7)

Sunday Night -
San Diego (5-5) @ Indianapolis (6-4)

Monday Night -
San Francisco (3-7) @ Arizona (3-7)

I'm biased - I'm picking Detroit and Dallas against my better judgment because I expect both teams to play better, play harder on Thanksgiving. Realistically, I expect one of them to pull the upset... but I'm not sure which.

A really remarkable slate of games this week. Lots of evenly-matched teams by record, although only two division matches - SF/ARI is almost irrelevant, except it's the NFC West, so who knows; TEN/HOU is important only because if Houston loses, they're pretty much done. I think they beat a Rusty Smith (is that his name?) led Titans team. San Diego has begun their usual mid-season resurrection and I expect it to continue against a very injured Colts team. GB/ATL is the most important game of the week to me - the winner may very well end up the #1-seed in the NFC... I like the Packers, but I don't pick against the Falcons at home. TB/BAL should be a very interesting game, as well... I'm also picking against the Vikings and Dolphins until they show me something to pick for. The Vikings may have changed coach (finally), but I still don't like Favre under center; he's been awful this year and I'm not sure how Leslie Frazier changes that.

Pierce's Picks - Week 11

Last week I went a respectable 10-4, improving me to 89-55 on the year.

We're done with bye weeks, so it's back to 16 games per week! Here we go, winners in gold as always.

Thursday Night -
Chicago (6-3) @ Miami (5-4)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (1-8) @ Cincinnati (2-7)
Detroit (2-7) @ Dallas (2-7)
Baltimore (6-3) @ Carolina (1-8)
Cleveland (3-6) @ Jacksonville (5-4)
Oakland (5-4) @ Pittsburgh (6-3)
Washington (4-5) @ Tennessee (5-4)
Arizona (3-6) @ Kansas City (5-4)
Green Bay (6-3) @ Minnesota (3-6)
Houston (4-5) @ NY Jets (7-2)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-2) @ St. Louis (4-5)
Tampa Bay (6-3) @ San Francisco (3-6)
Seattle (5-4) @ New Orleans (6-3)
Indianapolis (6-3) @ New England (7-2)

Sunday Night -
NY Giants (6-3) @ Philadelphia (6-3)

Monday Night -
Denver (3-6) @ San Diego (4-5)

Let's see. I still think it's safe to bet against the Vikings drama, especially against a rested division foe coming off a bye. The Lions are on the road, so if you need a survivor pick, Dallas looks good this week. Besides, if Jason Garrett's Cowboys are where the Lions 25-game road losing streak ends, believe me when I say Jerry Jones will not be his employer next year - I think Garrett knows it and his team wins. If the Seahawks can beat the Saints, I'll consider them legit, but I'm not really counting on it. I think the Giants come at the Eagles with everything they have after the embarrassing loss to Dallas. I'm also very interested in the Colts/Patriots game for the first time in a couple years, as both teams look good but flawed this season... this game tells us a lot about the winner. Can Atlanta beat a solid St. Louis team on the road? I still have doubts about the Falcons outside of their dome... and what about Kansas City? I think they bounce back after that Denver game and beat a mediocre Jacksonville team. Also, it's the latter half of the season, so here come the Chargers - don't let that crazy Denver win over Kansas City fool you into picking the Broncos on Monday Night. Oh, and don't be overly confident in Chicago or Miami against the other; when a new QB is under center for a team, anything can happen (the Bears will be watching film from 2008, of Kansas City, to study Tyler Thigpen). I like Chicago, but I wouldn't be surprised if Miami wins, either.

Pierce's Picks - Week 10

Last week I was 7-6, which is better than I really expected given how many blown calls I made. That puts me at 79-51 on the season.

Winners in gold as usual.

Thursday Night -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Atlanta (6-2)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Detroit (2-6) @ Buffalo (0-8)
Minnesota (3-5) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Jets (6-2) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Cincinnati (2-6) @ Indianapolis (5-3)
Tennessee (5-3) @ Miami (4-4)
Carolina (1-7) @ Tampa Bay (5-3)
Houston (4-4) @ Jacksonville (4-4)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (5-3) @ Denver (2-6)
Dallas (1-7) @ NY Giants (6-2)
Seattle (4-4) @ Arizona (3-5)
St. Louis (4-4) @ San Francisco (2-6)

Sunday Night -
New England (6-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2)

Monday Night -
Philadelphia (5-3) @ Washington (4-4)

Nice slate of primetime games, if you ask me. What a matchup to kick off Thursday Night football! I don't like to go against Atlanta at home, though, even against a team like Baltimore. I like Buffalo, who's been playing tough games week-in and week-out, to get their first win against a Detroit team who has no idea who their quarterback is. After all, the Lions gave the Rams their only win last year. I still don't believe in the Vikings. Houston and Jacksonville is a make-or-break game for both teams, I think. And, of course, we get to witness the first part of the Randy Moss Saga in Tennessee, a game I think they win. New England @ Pittsburgh might be the matchup of the week... tough call, too. New England's offense isn't what it was with Moss, and Pittsburgh should be able to clamp down on them. But can Pittsburgh play well themselves with so many offensive line injuries? Hard to say. I still like Pittsburgh more, though, overall. I don't see Jason Garrett making the Cowboys competitive in his first game as a head coach, not against the red-hot Giants.

From here on out, with Thursday Night Football going, you can expect my picks Wednesday night every week.

Pierce's Picks - Week 9

Last week, I was 8-5, giving me a 72-45 mark for the season so far.

Winners in gold as usual.

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (5-2) @ Atlanta (5-2)
Chicago (4-3) @ Buffalo (0-7)
New England (6-1) @ Cleveland (2-5)
NY Jets (5-2) @ Detroit (2-5)
Arizona (3-4) @ Minnesota (2-5)
New Orleans (5-3) @ Carolina (1-6)
Miami (4-3) @ Baltimore (5-2)
San Diego (3-5) @ Houston (4-3)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
NY Giants (5-2) @ Seattle (4-3)
Kansas City (5-2) @ Oakland (4-4)
Indianapolis (5-2) @ Philadelphia (4-3)

Sunday Night -
Dallas (1-6) @ Green Bay (5-3)

Monday Night -
Pittsburgh (5-2) @ Cincinnati (2-5)

Byes:

Denver, Jacksonville, San Francisco, St. Louis, Tennessee, Washington

I like most of the home teams this week, which means I'm going out on a limb on a few games - yes, that means I'm picking Detroit, Philadelphia, Seattle and even Buffalo this week. I like the homefield advantage Seattle has against a Giants team I haven't fully bought into yet. I think Philadelphia, fresh off their bye, can give an Indianapolis team without Dallas Clark more trouble than Houston could. If San Diego were healthier, I might like them over Houston, but as it stands, I think they're almost out of healthy receivers and Antonio Gates is supposedly out now, too. I like the momentum Detroit is building and while it is a bit of a homer pick, I think Detroit can make a statement win at home against a Jets team that looked incredibly shaky against the Packers last week. I'd love to see Tampa keep rolling, but I think Atlanta - especially at home - is the class of the NFC South and won't be beaten. The KC/Oakland game is certainly the surprise game of the week and I think I'd take whoever is home... in this case, I'm buying into the roll Oakland is on. Until the Vikings prove otherwise, I'm considering them in full implosion and unable to win a game... they need this win, but I don't think they get it. I'm also picking Buffalo for the first time all year - after gutting out close losses against some of the best teams in the AFC, I think they can - at home - beat a Chicago team that can't keep its quarterback upright, even coming off their bye.

Gonna be an interesting week if I called some of these right... definitely playing some homefield advantages and some gut hunches this week.

The Titans are the best team in the AFC South, as of today.

The Titans are now the best team in the AFC South.

Okay everyone, say it with me. The Tennessee Titans are the best team in the AFC South now and a top-5 team going forward in the NFL. If everything pans out and Randy Moss puts on a Titans jersey, he is going to do things for that team that will elevate them. Yes, I'm assuming his personality will relax a bit and he won't be a troublemaker. But I think he's looking for a good fit, a team that's going to win, and I highly doubt Jeff Fisher is going to take any crap - after all this is a guy who went to the nightclub where Kenny Britt had his little fiasco personally to investigate.

You gotta think Fisher and the Titans are grinning like the Cheshire Cat right now, because they just stole a guy who alters how other teams have to defend them. Suddenly, a safety has to pull back on Moss every play, just like they did while he was a Viking. This is going to open up tons of underneath stuff for Bo Scaife and lots of running room for Chris Johnson, as well as peel some coverage off of emerging young star Kenny Britt.

But Moss has to be happy knowing he won't get a lot of deep shots here - Vince Young is not a deep-ball quarterback and never will be. But I also think Moss has to respect that he's getting a shot here with a winning team that has a sound foundation for next year, too. This is a team with a top-10 defense, a mobile quarterback that defenses have to respect and a top-5 RB. He has a good complement in Kenny Britt. This is a good match. Moss would truly be a fool to squander this opportunity, which could very possibly be his last with a championship-caliber team. And mark my words, with Moss on their roster, the Titans are exactly that.

Oh, and remember that the Titans are on their bye this week - which gives them a week and a half to acclimate Moss to their locker room and their game plan. Brilliant move, Titans. It couldn't have worked out better for you. Unless, of course, Moss implodes for a third time this season... but I'll be honest - I think this is a good fit and I don't see it happening. Great move, should be a good fit, could make a big difference come playoff time.

That other waiver wire move...

The Bills picked up Shawne Merriman off waivers. I have to wonder how motivated he'll be to play for a winless team. But my biggest wonder is this - how good is he now? Merriman's play tapered off significantly as he took injury after injury. He hasn't had a wholly productive season in a couple years. Is he the same player? If so, and he shows up to Buffalo, then he could help give the Bills a boost for a team that's been so close in their last two losses.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota...

Sidney Rice came off the PUP list and is reportedly practicing with the team. I heard one report saying he could play as early as this weekend, but I doubt it. Make no mistake, though, the Vikings need him back. When their backup plan for Moss is Hank Baskett, they're hurting for Rice's return. But rushing him back could be detrimental in the long-run. But then again, when in the last two years have the Vikings paid heed to any sort of functional long-term plan?

While I'm at it, I'm going to tell you all what the Vikings ought to do as of yesterday, to help get this franchise straightened out, because make no mistake, they are in total disarray and I don't see a single sign telling me they're pulling out of this tailspin, because the two main problems are still there.

1) Fire Brad Childress. Now. He's sacrificed too much for the Brett Favre Experiment and the way he handled this Moss thing is just embarrassing. If you're a fan, you don't like him. If you're a player, I don't see how you can trust him. He's not fostering a good locker room.
2) Make Leslie Frazier interim head coach. This is not a talentless team, but they're certainly not playing to their talent. They can still recover some this year. Frazier is sought after every year for head coaching gigs - give him a shot here before he gets a chance to depart. He knows the players and he has the locker room. Give him a shot and if it works out, offer him the job permanently for 2011 and on.
3) Cut Brett Favre. He's not going to be there next season and, let's be honest, this season is over for the Vikings. They are not a playoff team. And if they're not winning a championship this year, there is ZERO reason for Favre to be on the field, because all he does is hold back younger players developing at the position.
4) With Favre cut, install Tavaris Jackson as QB for the rest of the season. Give him his shot. If he plays well and works out, great, continue. If not, then let your new coach get a new QB to go with him moving forward.

Make no mistake - if not now, the Vikings will be a rebuilding team next year, even if only a short-term rebuilding team. But they can do a lot of the footwork for it during the rest of this season if they accept reality now, and it'll put them in a better position to start the next year. Of course, all this would have been avoided if they had just not pursued Favre, but that's said and done now...

There are Lions on TV!

So, watching some sports shows this afternoon, I saw two Lions players on TV - I saw Matthew Stafford on Jim Rome's show and I saw Ndamukong Suh on Pardon The Interruption. Stafford looked a little intimidated - he went a long time without blinking, as far as I was watching, and didn't really show a lot of emotion or voice inflection. He is a smart kid though, you can hear it in how he talks about the game. I believe he's probably more laid back off TV, but I was hoping the kid would be a little more loose than that, especially with a guy like Rome. Suh, meanwhile, looked pretty relaxed on PTI, even laughing when they brought up his attempt to decapitate Jake Delhomme in the preseason. He gave smart responses and smiled and laughed a lot (and he blinked at a normal rate). While I like Stafford a lot, I have to say that Suh is one of the most polished rookies I've ever seen - both on the field and off of it. He just knows how to carry himself and I have a lot of respect for the young man for it... and it helps give me hope for the Lions going forward.

This is how to start November...!

Gotta start with the Vikings...

I was going to try and think of a catchy title for this, but decided not to do that to Vikings fans who read this. I'm not even sure where to begin. For those who haven't noticed, the Viking waived - that is to say, cut - Randy Moss today. When Randy said, four weeks ago, "Get your 84 jerseys out, this'll be a fun ride," I'm pretty sure this isn't what he expected (although, admittedly, this is pretty unique). Moss was somewhat critical, in his own rambling way after the 28-18 loss to his former team, the Patriots. And I doubt his sheer adoration for the Patriots (sounds like a guy who just broke up with a girl only to realize he wants her back) was probably going to sit fantastically in the locker room. But do you cut the guy? After all, Childress himself said some fairly critical back-handed things about Favre the week before. And Moss makes (er, made) the Vikings a better team - that vertical threat opened up space for Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe. Every Vikings fan I know - and I agree - has noted that Harvin seemed to really blossom with Moss in the lineup. I figured if there was anywhere Moss would be happy to play second-fiddle and help mentor young guys, it'd be back on his first team, the Vikings. I wanted to see the guy retire in purple and gold.

Someone will pick up Moss, because he makes most teams better. I think his actions recently shorten that list though - for example, I could see the Rams or Panthers being interested in a top-flight WR, but I don't see either wanting a combustible personality burdening their young quarterbacks. I think San Diego makes a lot of sense for him, as a team full of tall WRs who could use some help with Vincent Jackson unhappy and still-suspended as well as Malcolm Floyd hurt. I could see Rivers and Moss making some good music together.

So, if Moss was productive - even without catching passes, by opening up space - why was he cut by the Vikings? I've been a vocal opponent to the Brett Favre moves of the Vikings, something I think has set the long-term potential of the franchise back by at least three years, if not more, as they've neglected to develop a young quarterback behind him. But I think Brad Childress is as much of the problem. It's clear that there's ego-friction between Favre and Childress - something that only manifests tangibly when the Vikings are losing, which is more now than it was a year ago. Which makes me wonder if this was a way of Childress to lash out at an available, ready-made target. Moss spoke out against Chilly and now, suddenly, he's gone. This says to me that it is the only move, a move born of frustration and probably some anger, this lame-duck coach can make, because he's hitched himself to Favre and he knows as well as anyone else that he's subject to Favre's whims because he let Favre's whims take precedence over establishing a strong sense of authority (see: no-show for training camp, but that's okay).

I don't understand it, though. All it does is prove that this Vikings fiasco is soaring to new heights - this is dysfunction in high form, from which I don't think they can recover. I predicted earlier this offseason that one of two teams would collapse - either the Vikings or Jets. Looks like, so far, I was right, but this has far exceeded my expectations.

How about those Lions? And, hey, is that Rex Grossman?

It's too bad that, nationally, the Lions victory over Washington is getting more attention because of Mike Shanahan's mind-boggling move to remove a healthy Donovan McNabb for Rex Grossman than it is for the Lions playing a very good football game. But we'll start with the McNabb stuff. The true mark of a good quarterback is his ability to make a 4th-quarter comeback, or lead a 2-minute drill. That Shanahan pulled McNabb with the game on the line, in the last two minutes, speaks volumes. McNabb will not be a Redskin next year. That's what it says to me.

Meanwhile, the Lions had a dominating performance. The defensive line chalked up 6 sacks and had constant pressure on McNabb. The secondary, while still nothing great, has found a gem in cornerback Alphonso Smith, who had another interception in this game and dropped another one that would have gone for a TD. Suh continues to lead the way in the Defensive Rookie of the Year race. Meanwhile, after throwing an early pick, young Matthew Stafford bounced back and ended up with 4 TDs on the day - 3 to Calvin Johnson and 1 to Brandon Pettigrew. Also, the run game found some balance, with Kevin Smith and Jahvid Best combining for roughly 100 yards on roughly 25 carries. That's what you want to see from this team. Better yet is the ball in Stafford's hands on 4th-and-1, game on the line, slinging a dart to Calvin for his last TD of the game. This wasn't just a win, but a gut-check win that the Lions won in clutch fashion. These are the kinds of games that the Lions used to be a lock to lose. These hungry, new-look Lions won it. This is a new team that's looking down that corner and starting to turn it. You can't overlook them on your schedule anymore - on any given Sunday, I truly believe they can beat any team in the NFL.

That punter must have some really big, really brass ones...

I have mixed feelings about the Jets punter going for it on 4th and 18. Did anyone else catch Rex Ryan's post-game press conference? The punter has the authority to go for it at his own discretion when he sees a good opening, but Rex chuckled and goes "I never thought he'd do it on 4th and 18..." A good moment, there. Credit to the guy for almost making it and having the brass big ones to make that call, but wow.

As for the Jets, though, I have to argue that the Packers really just demonstrated a blueprint on how to beat them, and Clay Matthews summed it up in one sentence: "We put the ball in Sanchez's hands." It's a bad thing when a defense realizes that their chance of winning goes up if they force your franchise quarterback to have to make plays. I've thought this about Sanchez for some time - that he's a very efficient game manager type of quarterback, who is reliable to protect a lead and take care of the ball. But when the game is on the line, when he's called upon to make a play, he's not the guy I want. And sure, you can say his receivers dropped a ton of balls in that game, but it still doesn't erase the lack of clutch credit on Sanchez's resume so far. While he may be looking more and more polished up to now, it just makes me happy that the Lions took the right guy at #1 in the '09 draft - the guy who can make that game-winning, clutch play when the ball is in his hands.

Final note....

Who knew that the Chiefs/Raiders game coming up in Week 9 would end up being a game that is going to have a huge impact, potentially, on the AFC West race? Both of these teams look far more credible than either the Chargers or woeful Broncos. Kudos to both of them. Tom Cable - I am not joking here - is my vote for Coach of the Year right now. It's taken time, but he's had to go back and forth through hell and adversity to get this team where it is now and many people called for his head multiple times along the way. Good for you, Cable Guy. Good for you, Al Davis, for sticking with him.