Pierce's Picks - Week 16

It's been an eventful season and it's winding down. The playoff pictures are mostly clear, but there's still plenty of excitement to be had.

I went a rough 8-8 last week, taking my season mark to 142-82.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
Carolina (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)

Saturday Night -
Dallas (5-9) @ Arizona (4-10)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New England (12-2) @ Buffalo (4-10)
NY Jets (10-4) @ Chicago (10-4)
Baltimore (10-4) @ Cleveland (5-9)
San Francisco (5-9) @ St. Louis (6-8)
Detroit (4-10) @ Miami (7-7)
Washington (5-9) @ Jacksonville (8-6)
Tennessee (5-9) @ Kansas City (9-5)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Indianapolis (8-6) @ Oakland (7-7)
Houston (5-9) @ Denver (3-11)
San Diego (8-6) @ Cincinnati (3-11)
Seattle (6-8) @ Tampa Bay (8-6)
NY Giants (9-5) @ Green Bay (8-6)

Sunday Night -
Minnesota (5-9) @ Philadelphia (10-4)

Monday Night -
New Orleans (10-4) @ Atlanta (12-2)

That's a great Monday Night matchup there, but I'm not betting against the Falcons in their dome, no way. Meanwhile, I'm starting to feel bad for the Vikings - that's a nice run on national TV they've got going, at a time when the team has really just fallen to pieces. I'm amused by the NFL Network's various attempts to sell the Panthers/Steelers game... ouch. I'm not seeing a lot of upsets this week, I think most teams are plotted on their course. I do like the Jets over the Bears, though, as they regain their swagger. I also like Green Bay over the Giants with Aaron Rodgers playing. I think the Rams put the nail in the 49ers season (finally) as they march to 8-8 and the NFC West title. I also like the Lions to notch a 3rd-straight win against a Dolphins team incapable of winning on their own turf, although I admit I like them better with Drew Stanton than Shaun Hill right now, who reportedly took 1st-team reps in practice today. I like Oakland to upset the Colts, though... I don't buy the Colts and I think a team with upfront toughness like the Raiders has a legitimate shot to pound them. I'm tempted to pick Denver over Houston, as I think Tebow will gut that team to at least one win while he's starting, but... that defense is horrible and I expect the Texans to shred 'em no matter what Tebow does.

The Draft Race is on. Carolina has the inside track on the 1st overall pick and I think they'll hold onto it. It'll be interesting to see, though, if Denver and Cincinnati remain the 2/3 or if they win a game or two and let the 4-win teams have a track at the top 3.

My hat's off to Devin Hester of the Bears - 14 KR/PR TDs in 5 seasons is actually a bit misleading... he didn't score any KR/PR TDs in two of those five seasons when the Bears tried to convert him to a full-time WR (and subsequently didn't make the playoffs). So in reality, that's 14 KR/PR TDs in 3 seasons as a full-time returner. What a talent. And what humility - I saw his post-game press conference and he wanted to make sure his 10 special teams teammates got as much glory as he did. It was really something to see him get choked up when a reporter asked him how he felt about those guys. As electric as a guy like DeSean Jackson is, it's clear right there that he's got nothing on Hester in the character department. Congratulations to Hester - who will undoubtedly add much, much more to that current record total.

Pierce's Picks - Week 15

Last week was an impressive 13-3, improving my season mark to 134-74.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
San Francisco (5-8) @ San Diego (7-6)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Cleveland (5-8) @ Cincinnati (2-11)
Washington (5-8) @ Dallas (4-9)
Houston (5-8) @ Tennessee (5-8)
Jacksonville (8-5) @ Indianapolis (7-6)
Kansas City (8-5) @ St. Louis (6-7)
Buffalo (3-10) @ Miami (7-6)
Detroit (3-10) @ Tampa Bay (8-5)
Arizona (4-9) @ Carolina (1-12)
New Orleans (10-3) @ Baltimore (9-4)
Philadelphia (9-4) @ NY Giants (9-4)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Atlanta (11-2) @ Seattle (6-7)
NY Jets (9-4) @ Pittsburgh (10-3)
Denver (3-10) @ Oakland (6-7)

Sunday Night -
Green Bay (8-5) @ New England (11-2)

Monday Night -
Chicago (9-4) @ Minnesota (5-8)

Where to begin... I'd like Kansas City if Matt Cassel were healthy, but he's not, so St. Louis gets a big win there in their quest to win the worst division in football. The Jets/Steelers matchup looked good a couple weeks ago, but you have to believe the Steelers defense has a field day with the Jets. If Green Bay can't put Aaron Rodgers on the field, they don't hold a candle to the Patriots and their slim playoff hopes are snuffed out. I think the Lions have a fair shit at breaking their road losing streak against a bruised and banged-up Bucs defense, but I'm still not betting on them on the road. The Vikings look abysmal and I don't see that improving, sadly, especially not outside in the cold, as they should be Monday Night. Jacksonville against Indianapolis for the division should be a fun game, but I like the Jags to get over the hump against a Colts team missing too many parts to function efficiently. Miami plays poorly at home, Buffalo could play spoiler there. I think Dallas gets revenge for their most humiliating loss earlier this season against Washington. I think Cincinnati picks up another win because, as dysfunctional as that team is, Jake Delhomme is simply awful and I can't bet on a team playing him to win again, ever. Which is sad, because I won my first fantasy football championship with him as my quarterback. If Colt McCoy were playing, I'd like the Browns in this one, but he's not, so it's all Bengals. Big game for the NFC East this weekend too, as it comes down to this - and I like the Giants. They almost beat Philadelphia last time, if not for an unfortunate Eli Manning fumble. I think they win at home and take the division.

Also, I'm going to say it here first, my first draft prediction for 2011 - Andrew Luck of Stanford will not declare and will be quarterbacking Stanford next season.

Pierce's Picks - Week 14

Last week was 11-5, putting me at 121-71 on the season thusfar.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
Indianapolis (6-6) @ Tennessee (5-7)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Cleveland (5-7) @ Buffalo (2-10)
Green Bay (8-4) @ Detroit (2-10)
NY Giants (8-4) @ Minnesota (5-7)
Cincinnati (2-10) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Tampa Bay (7-5) @ Washington (5-7)
Atlanta (10-2) @ Carolina (1-11)
Oakland (6-6) @ Jacksonville (7-5)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (6-6) @ San Francisco (4-8)
St. Louis (6-6) @ New Orleans (9-3)
New England (10-2) @ Chicago (9-3)
Miami (6-6) @ NY Jets (9-3)
Denver (3-9) @ Arizona (3-9)
Kansas City (8-4) @ San Diego (6-6)

Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (8-4) @ Dallas (4-8)

Monday Night -
Baltimore (8-4) @ Houston (5-7)

Big win if the Patriots can beat the Bears in Soldier Field, I think. Do the Jets bounce back against Miami? I think so. Dallas is a possible trap for Philly, as are the Lions for the Packers, but I think the better team wins in both. KC/SD could be a very good game... Indy's season goes down in flames if they lose to Tennessee. St. Louis could make a statement with a win against the Saints. Lots of losing teams at home against winning teams... there will be some upsets, but it's hard to see where.

Pierce's Picks - Week 13

I gambled on my Lions last week and the other traditional Thanksgiving team, the Cowboys, last week, against my better judgment, and paid for it with two losses. As a result, I went 9-7 last week.

On the season, that means I'm 110-66.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
Houston (5-6) @ Philadelphia (7-4)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (8-3) @ Cincinnati (2-9)
Chicago (8-3) @ Detroit (2-9)
San Francisco (4-7) @ Green Bay (7-4)
Jacksonville (6-5) @ Tennessee (5-6)
Denver (3-8) @ Kansas City (7-4)
Cleveland (4-7) @ Miami (6-5)
Buffalo (2-9) @ Minnesota (4-7)
Washington (5-6) @ NY Giants (7-4)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Oakland (5-6) @ San Diego (6-5)
Atlanta (9-2) @ Tampa Bay (7-4)
Carolina (1-10) @ Seattle (5-6)
St. Louis (5-6) @ Arizona (3-8)
Dallas (3-8) @ Indianapolis (6-5)

Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (8-3) @ Baltimore (8-3)

Monday Night -
NY Jets (9-2) @ New England (9-2)

What a slate of primetime games this week. Well, not so much HOU/PHI (really, Houston's defense against Philly's offense? Go go Eagles for fantasy this week!). But that BAL/PIT and that NYJ/NE game... both of those are huge. Possibly the four best teams in the NFL there and both games will have huge impacts on those division races. Can't ask for better primetime games than that at this stage of the season. If Minnesota beats Buffalo, I'll buy into them a little right now, but Buffalo is one scrappy team and they keep pushing everyone they play to the max. I have more respect for them than the Vikings right now, so we'll see if they make good on it. I don't like the Lions to win, but the Bears should be wary of that as a trap game... I want to believe it, but that Patriots game left a really bad taste in my mouth. I could see Seattle losing to the Panthers, possibly, too. Also, Colts beware, but I expect them to play angry after the Chargers embarrassed them. Tennessee won't win another game until they have a credible QB starting again.

What is the NFL thinking?

I've been ruminating on this for a little while, because all in all, I'm very confused. The NFL, this year, has had a very firm stance on player safety. This has turned into the manifestation of some pretty egregious fines for men who are, for all intents and purposes, just playing the game the way they've been taught. No one has been singled out more than James Harrison of the Steelers on this matter, who was fined again this week for a great hit on Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Buffalo Bills - a hit that this writer thinks was not late, not dirty and just an example of a great pass rusher making a solid hit and trying to make a play. As I mentioned, for his efforts, he was fined.

What staggers me the most on this is that, on the same week, Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan and Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson shed their helmets and started beating on each other like they were on ice, not a field and were levied the same fine as Harrison afterwards. Richard Seymour of the Raiders punched Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers right in the face during a game and was fined similarly. What I don't understand is how the league can be so heavy-handed in doling out fines on guys who are just trying to play the game, but basically give guys who are throwing punches little more than slaps on the wrist.

I'm of the opinion that anyone who throws a punch or otherwise displays violent acts that have no part of the game of football should be fined significantly - I'm talking six figures, not five - and suspended for at least one game, if not more. I find it astounding that men brawling on the field is somehow acceptable - and the low fines being levied for it encourage it. Trust me on this - if Richard Seymour had been suspended for a full game after throwing his punch at Big Ben, I have a feeling Finnegan and Johnson might have reconsidered their little game of Punch-Out.

As for the big hits thing, well, that's gotten out of hand, too, but I'll talk about that another time. But never before in an NFL season have I seen so many flags thrown arbitrarily. Hines Ward spoke out against it this week and so has Brian Urlacher of the Bears. One of these flags is going to make a huge difference in a playoff game. I think Troy Polamalu - and Urlacher - suggested the best idea - a committee of NFL executives, personnel men and retired players who evaluate and decide on fines. As it is, these fines are handed out in a way that seems, at best, as arbitrarily as the flags being thrown.

Coaches on the Hot Seat

Ah, a favorite late-season and off-season topic - the coaching carousel - who stays, who goes. Or in this case, who will probably go. The below are all guys I think need to find new teams or step back down to coordinator:
(In no particular order)

Mike Singletary - San Francisco 49ers. Sorry Mike. I love his enthusiasm and the vigor he brings to the game, but I think it's clear he's in over his head. He reminds me of Rod Marinelli in his last season as Lions coach - out of his depth, repeating the same mantra over and over as his team continues to flounder. Marinelli is thriving as a defensive coordinator in Chicago now. I think Singletary would benefit from a similar move.

Gary Kubiak - Houston Texans. Too many years of no progress. This team continues to stay stuck at .500 or a game within it. Time to move on. This team is too talented to be .500 and be content about it and their defense is underperforming to be ranked as low as it is.

Jack Del Rio - Jacksonville Jaguars. Unless they have a huge surge to end the season and make the playoffs, virtually the same case as Kubiak. This team is almost always at .500 or one game above/below it. No progress over too much time. Move on.

John Fox - Carolina Panthers. His contract is up at the end of the year anyway, but I have to believe he's counting the days til he can walk out that door and has no desire to stay anyway.

Marvin Lewis - Cincinnati Bengals. Same as Fox, only amplified times ten or so.

Norv Turner - San Diego Chargers. Win a playoff game or else. They fired a better coach for not winning playoff games after a 14-2 season. If Turner can't find postseason success, they need to move on. His inability to get them playing good football until November is of concern, also.

Ken Whisenhunt - Arizona Cardinals. He took over a good team with good veteran leadership, but those veterans are gone now. Can he keep this team competitive without Kurt Warner? I give him another year after this one to find out, or I chalk up his success to Warner's skill at QB.

Josh McDaniels - Denver Broncos. Every coach deserves 3 years. But starting 6-0 and being a .250 team after that sort of sets an expectation early. One more year is deserved here, but if the Broncos aren't over .500 next year, I think it maybe safe to let him go.

Jim Schwartz - Detroit Lions. As above, everyone deserves 3 years. But the Lions are more talented than they have been in a long time and still lose games. I question their fundamentals, their mental toughness and their discipline. Schwartz needs to pull this team to .500 or better next year or I question his ability to remain a head coach.

Pierce's Picks - Week 12

Ahh, Thanksgiving. A hallowed time when it comes to football, particularly for Detroiters like me. For me, football is as entwined with Thanksgiving as turkey and family are. Football has happened in Detroit since 1934 and I think a lot of people don't realize what it means to us.

Last week I went 12-4, putting me at 101-59 on the year so far. Without further ado, on to the picks... Winners in gold.

Thanksgiving Day -
New England (8-2) @ Detroit (2-8)
New Orleans (7-3) @ Dallas (3-7)
Cincinnati (2-8) @ NY Jets (8-2)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Green Bay (7-3) @ Atlanta (8-2)
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Buffalo (2-8)
Carolina (1-9) @ Cleveland (3-7)
Jacksonville (6-4) @ NY Giants (6-4)
Minnesota (3-7) @ Washington (5-5)
Tennessee (5-5) @ Houston (4-6)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (6-4) @ Seattle (5-5)
Miami (5-5) @ Oakland (5-5)
Philadelphia (7-3) @ Chicago (7-3)
Tampa Bay (7-3) @ Baltimore (7-3)
St. Louis (4-6) @ Denver (3-7)

Sunday Night -
San Diego (5-5) @ Indianapolis (6-4)

Monday Night -
San Francisco (3-7) @ Arizona (3-7)

I'm biased - I'm picking Detroit and Dallas against my better judgment because I expect both teams to play better, play harder on Thanksgiving. Realistically, I expect one of them to pull the upset... but I'm not sure which.

A really remarkable slate of games this week. Lots of evenly-matched teams by record, although only two division matches - SF/ARI is almost irrelevant, except it's the NFC West, so who knows; TEN/HOU is important only because if Houston loses, they're pretty much done. I think they beat a Rusty Smith (is that his name?) led Titans team. San Diego has begun their usual mid-season resurrection and I expect it to continue against a very injured Colts team. GB/ATL is the most important game of the week to me - the winner may very well end up the #1-seed in the NFC... I like the Packers, but I don't pick against the Falcons at home. TB/BAL should be a very interesting game, as well... I'm also picking against the Vikings and Dolphins until they show me something to pick for. The Vikings may have changed coach (finally), but I still don't like Favre under center; he's been awful this year and I'm not sure how Leslie Frazier changes that.

Pierce's Picks - Week 11

Last week I went a respectable 10-4, improving me to 89-55 on the year.

We're done with bye weeks, so it's back to 16 games per week! Here we go, winners in gold as always.

Thursday Night -
Chicago (6-3) @ Miami (5-4)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (1-8) @ Cincinnati (2-7)
Detroit (2-7) @ Dallas (2-7)
Baltimore (6-3) @ Carolina (1-8)
Cleveland (3-6) @ Jacksonville (5-4)
Oakland (5-4) @ Pittsburgh (6-3)
Washington (4-5) @ Tennessee (5-4)
Arizona (3-6) @ Kansas City (5-4)
Green Bay (6-3) @ Minnesota (3-6)
Houston (4-5) @ NY Jets (7-2)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-2) @ St. Louis (4-5)
Tampa Bay (6-3) @ San Francisco (3-6)
Seattle (5-4) @ New Orleans (6-3)
Indianapolis (6-3) @ New England (7-2)

Sunday Night -
NY Giants (6-3) @ Philadelphia (6-3)

Monday Night -
Denver (3-6) @ San Diego (4-5)

Let's see. I still think it's safe to bet against the Vikings drama, especially against a rested division foe coming off a bye. The Lions are on the road, so if you need a survivor pick, Dallas looks good this week. Besides, if Jason Garrett's Cowboys are where the Lions 25-game road losing streak ends, believe me when I say Jerry Jones will not be his employer next year - I think Garrett knows it and his team wins. If the Seahawks can beat the Saints, I'll consider them legit, but I'm not really counting on it. I think the Giants come at the Eagles with everything they have after the embarrassing loss to Dallas. I'm also very interested in the Colts/Patriots game for the first time in a couple years, as both teams look good but flawed this season... this game tells us a lot about the winner. Can Atlanta beat a solid St. Louis team on the road? I still have doubts about the Falcons outside of their dome... and what about Kansas City? I think they bounce back after that Denver game and beat a mediocre Jacksonville team. Also, it's the latter half of the season, so here come the Chargers - don't let that crazy Denver win over Kansas City fool you into picking the Broncos on Monday Night. Oh, and don't be overly confident in Chicago or Miami against the other; when a new QB is under center for a team, anything can happen (the Bears will be watching film from 2008, of Kansas City, to study Tyler Thigpen). I like Chicago, but I wouldn't be surprised if Miami wins, either.

Pierce's Picks - Week 10

Last week I was 7-6, which is better than I really expected given how many blown calls I made. That puts me at 79-51 on the season.

Winners in gold as usual.

Thursday Night -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Atlanta (6-2)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Detroit (2-6) @ Buffalo (0-8)
Minnesota (3-5) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Jets (6-2) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Cincinnati (2-6) @ Indianapolis (5-3)
Tennessee (5-3) @ Miami (4-4)
Carolina (1-7) @ Tampa Bay (5-3)
Houston (4-4) @ Jacksonville (4-4)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (5-3) @ Denver (2-6)
Dallas (1-7) @ NY Giants (6-2)
Seattle (4-4) @ Arizona (3-5)
St. Louis (4-4) @ San Francisco (2-6)

Sunday Night -
New England (6-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2)

Monday Night -
Philadelphia (5-3) @ Washington (4-4)

Nice slate of primetime games, if you ask me. What a matchup to kick off Thursday Night football! I don't like to go against Atlanta at home, though, even against a team like Baltimore. I like Buffalo, who's been playing tough games week-in and week-out, to get their first win against a Detroit team who has no idea who their quarterback is. After all, the Lions gave the Rams their only win last year. I still don't believe in the Vikings. Houston and Jacksonville is a make-or-break game for both teams, I think. And, of course, we get to witness the first part of the Randy Moss Saga in Tennessee, a game I think they win. New England @ Pittsburgh might be the matchup of the week... tough call, too. New England's offense isn't what it was with Moss, and Pittsburgh should be able to clamp down on them. But can Pittsburgh play well themselves with so many offensive line injuries? Hard to say. I still like Pittsburgh more, though, overall. I don't see Jason Garrett making the Cowboys competitive in his first game as a head coach, not against the red-hot Giants.

From here on out, with Thursday Night Football going, you can expect my picks Wednesday night every week.

Pierce's Picks - Week 9

Last week, I was 8-5, giving me a 72-45 mark for the season so far.

Winners in gold as usual.

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (5-2) @ Atlanta (5-2)
Chicago (4-3) @ Buffalo (0-7)
New England (6-1) @ Cleveland (2-5)
NY Jets (5-2) @ Detroit (2-5)
Arizona (3-4) @ Minnesota (2-5)
New Orleans (5-3) @ Carolina (1-6)
Miami (4-3) @ Baltimore (5-2)
San Diego (3-5) @ Houston (4-3)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
NY Giants (5-2) @ Seattle (4-3)
Kansas City (5-2) @ Oakland (4-4)
Indianapolis (5-2) @ Philadelphia (4-3)

Sunday Night -
Dallas (1-6) @ Green Bay (5-3)

Monday Night -
Pittsburgh (5-2) @ Cincinnati (2-5)

Byes:

Denver, Jacksonville, San Francisco, St. Louis, Tennessee, Washington

I like most of the home teams this week, which means I'm going out on a limb on a few games - yes, that means I'm picking Detroit, Philadelphia, Seattle and even Buffalo this week. I like the homefield advantage Seattle has against a Giants team I haven't fully bought into yet. I think Philadelphia, fresh off their bye, can give an Indianapolis team without Dallas Clark more trouble than Houston could. If San Diego were healthier, I might like them over Houston, but as it stands, I think they're almost out of healthy receivers and Antonio Gates is supposedly out now, too. I like the momentum Detroit is building and while it is a bit of a homer pick, I think Detroit can make a statement win at home against a Jets team that looked incredibly shaky against the Packers last week. I'd love to see Tampa keep rolling, but I think Atlanta - especially at home - is the class of the NFC South and won't be beaten. The KC/Oakland game is certainly the surprise game of the week and I think I'd take whoever is home... in this case, I'm buying into the roll Oakland is on. Until the Vikings prove otherwise, I'm considering them in full implosion and unable to win a game... they need this win, but I don't think they get it. I'm also picking Buffalo for the first time all year - after gutting out close losses against some of the best teams in the AFC, I think they can - at home - beat a Chicago team that can't keep its quarterback upright, even coming off their bye.

Gonna be an interesting week if I called some of these right... definitely playing some homefield advantages and some gut hunches this week.

The Titans are the best team in the AFC South, as of today.

The Titans are now the best team in the AFC South.

Okay everyone, say it with me. The Tennessee Titans are the best team in the AFC South now and a top-5 team going forward in the NFL. If everything pans out and Randy Moss puts on a Titans jersey, he is going to do things for that team that will elevate them. Yes, I'm assuming his personality will relax a bit and he won't be a troublemaker. But I think he's looking for a good fit, a team that's going to win, and I highly doubt Jeff Fisher is going to take any crap - after all this is a guy who went to the nightclub where Kenny Britt had his little fiasco personally to investigate.

You gotta think Fisher and the Titans are grinning like the Cheshire Cat right now, because they just stole a guy who alters how other teams have to defend them. Suddenly, a safety has to pull back on Moss every play, just like they did while he was a Viking. This is going to open up tons of underneath stuff for Bo Scaife and lots of running room for Chris Johnson, as well as peel some coverage off of emerging young star Kenny Britt.

But Moss has to be happy knowing he won't get a lot of deep shots here - Vince Young is not a deep-ball quarterback and never will be. But I also think Moss has to respect that he's getting a shot here with a winning team that has a sound foundation for next year, too. This is a team with a top-10 defense, a mobile quarterback that defenses have to respect and a top-5 RB. He has a good complement in Kenny Britt. This is a good match. Moss would truly be a fool to squander this opportunity, which could very possibly be his last with a championship-caliber team. And mark my words, with Moss on their roster, the Titans are exactly that.

Oh, and remember that the Titans are on their bye this week - which gives them a week and a half to acclimate Moss to their locker room and their game plan. Brilliant move, Titans. It couldn't have worked out better for you. Unless, of course, Moss implodes for a third time this season... but I'll be honest - I think this is a good fit and I don't see it happening. Great move, should be a good fit, could make a big difference come playoff time.

That other waiver wire move...

The Bills picked up Shawne Merriman off waivers. I have to wonder how motivated he'll be to play for a winless team. But my biggest wonder is this - how good is he now? Merriman's play tapered off significantly as he took injury after injury. He hasn't had a wholly productive season in a couple years. Is he the same player? If so, and he shows up to Buffalo, then he could help give the Bills a boost for a team that's been so close in their last two losses.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota...

Sidney Rice came off the PUP list and is reportedly practicing with the team. I heard one report saying he could play as early as this weekend, but I doubt it. Make no mistake, though, the Vikings need him back. When their backup plan for Moss is Hank Baskett, they're hurting for Rice's return. But rushing him back could be detrimental in the long-run. But then again, when in the last two years have the Vikings paid heed to any sort of functional long-term plan?

While I'm at it, I'm going to tell you all what the Vikings ought to do as of yesterday, to help get this franchise straightened out, because make no mistake, they are in total disarray and I don't see a single sign telling me they're pulling out of this tailspin, because the two main problems are still there.

1) Fire Brad Childress. Now. He's sacrificed too much for the Brett Favre Experiment and the way he handled this Moss thing is just embarrassing. If you're a fan, you don't like him. If you're a player, I don't see how you can trust him. He's not fostering a good locker room.
2) Make Leslie Frazier interim head coach. This is not a talentless team, but they're certainly not playing to their talent. They can still recover some this year. Frazier is sought after every year for head coaching gigs - give him a shot here before he gets a chance to depart. He knows the players and he has the locker room. Give him a shot and if it works out, offer him the job permanently for 2011 and on.
3) Cut Brett Favre. He's not going to be there next season and, let's be honest, this season is over for the Vikings. They are not a playoff team. And if they're not winning a championship this year, there is ZERO reason for Favre to be on the field, because all he does is hold back younger players developing at the position.
4) With Favre cut, install Tavaris Jackson as QB for the rest of the season. Give him his shot. If he plays well and works out, great, continue. If not, then let your new coach get a new QB to go with him moving forward.

Make no mistake - if not now, the Vikings will be a rebuilding team next year, even if only a short-term rebuilding team. But they can do a lot of the footwork for it during the rest of this season if they accept reality now, and it'll put them in a better position to start the next year. Of course, all this would have been avoided if they had just not pursued Favre, but that's said and done now...

There are Lions on TV!

So, watching some sports shows this afternoon, I saw two Lions players on TV - I saw Matthew Stafford on Jim Rome's show and I saw Ndamukong Suh on Pardon The Interruption. Stafford looked a little intimidated - he went a long time without blinking, as far as I was watching, and didn't really show a lot of emotion or voice inflection. He is a smart kid though, you can hear it in how he talks about the game. I believe he's probably more laid back off TV, but I was hoping the kid would be a little more loose than that, especially with a guy like Rome. Suh, meanwhile, looked pretty relaxed on PTI, even laughing when they brought up his attempt to decapitate Jake Delhomme in the preseason. He gave smart responses and smiled and laughed a lot (and he blinked at a normal rate). While I like Stafford a lot, I have to say that Suh is one of the most polished rookies I've ever seen - both on the field and off of it. He just knows how to carry himself and I have a lot of respect for the young man for it... and it helps give me hope for the Lions going forward.

This is how to start November...!

Gotta start with the Vikings...

I was going to try and think of a catchy title for this, but decided not to do that to Vikings fans who read this. I'm not even sure where to begin. For those who haven't noticed, the Viking waived - that is to say, cut - Randy Moss today. When Randy said, four weeks ago, "Get your 84 jerseys out, this'll be a fun ride," I'm pretty sure this isn't what he expected (although, admittedly, this is pretty unique). Moss was somewhat critical, in his own rambling way after the 28-18 loss to his former team, the Patriots. And I doubt his sheer adoration for the Patriots (sounds like a guy who just broke up with a girl only to realize he wants her back) was probably going to sit fantastically in the locker room. But do you cut the guy? After all, Childress himself said some fairly critical back-handed things about Favre the week before. And Moss makes (er, made) the Vikings a better team - that vertical threat opened up space for Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe. Every Vikings fan I know - and I agree - has noted that Harvin seemed to really blossom with Moss in the lineup. I figured if there was anywhere Moss would be happy to play second-fiddle and help mentor young guys, it'd be back on his first team, the Vikings. I wanted to see the guy retire in purple and gold.

Someone will pick up Moss, because he makes most teams better. I think his actions recently shorten that list though - for example, I could see the Rams or Panthers being interested in a top-flight WR, but I don't see either wanting a combustible personality burdening their young quarterbacks. I think San Diego makes a lot of sense for him, as a team full of tall WRs who could use some help with Vincent Jackson unhappy and still-suspended as well as Malcolm Floyd hurt. I could see Rivers and Moss making some good music together.

So, if Moss was productive - even without catching passes, by opening up space - why was he cut by the Vikings? I've been a vocal opponent to the Brett Favre moves of the Vikings, something I think has set the long-term potential of the franchise back by at least three years, if not more, as they've neglected to develop a young quarterback behind him. But I think Brad Childress is as much of the problem. It's clear that there's ego-friction between Favre and Childress - something that only manifests tangibly when the Vikings are losing, which is more now than it was a year ago. Which makes me wonder if this was a way of Childress to lash out at an available, ready-made target. Moss spoke out against Chilly and now, suddenly, he's gone. This says to me that it is the only move, a move born of frustration and probably some anger, this lame-duck coach can make, because he's hitched himself to Favre and he knows as well as anyone else that he's subject to Favre's whims because he let Favre's whims take precedence over establishing a strong sense of authority (see: no-show for training camp, but that's okay).

I don't understand it, though. All it does is prove that this Vikings fiasco is soaring to new heights - this is dysfunction in high form, from which I don't think they can recover. I predicted earlier this offseason that one of two teams would collapse - either the Vikings or Jets. Looks like, so far, I was right, but this has far exceeded my expectations.

How about those Lions? And, hey, is that Rex Grossman?

It's too bad that, nationally, the Lions victory over Washington is getting more attention because of Mike Shanahan's mind-boggling move to remove a healthy Donovan McNabb for Rex Grossman than it is for the Lions playing a very good football game. But we'll start with the McNabb stuff. The true mark of a good quarterback is his ability to make a 4th-quarter comeback, or lead a 2-minute drill. That Shanahan pulled McNabb with the game on the line, in the last two minutes, speaks volumes. McNabb will not be a Redskin next year. That's what it says to me.

Meanwhile, the Lions had a dominating performance. The defensive line chalked up 6 sacks and had constant pressure on McNabb. The secondary, while still nothing great, has found a gem in cornerback Alphonso Smith, who had another interception in this game and dropped another one that would have gone for a TD. Suh continues to lead the way in the Defensive Rookie of the Year race. Meanwhile, after throwing an early pick, young Matthew Stafford bounced back and ended up with 4 TDs on the day - 3 to Calvin Johnson and 1 to Brandon Pettigrew. Also, the run game found some balance, with Kevin Smith and Jahvid Best combining for roughly 100 yards on roughly 25 carries. That's what you want to see from this team. Better yet is the ball in Stafford's hands on 4th-and-1, game on the line, slinging a dart to Calvin for his last TD of the game. This wasn't just a win, but a gut-check win that the Lions won in clutch fashion. These are the kinds of games that the Lions used to be a lock to lose. These hungry, new-look Lions won it. This is a new team that's looking down that corner and starting to turn it. You can't overlook them on your schedule anymore - on any given Sunday, I truly believe they can beat any team in the NFL.

That punter must have some really big, really brass ones...

I have mixed feelings about the Jets punter going for it on 4th and 18. Did anyone else catch Rex Ryan's post-game press conference? The punter has the authority to go for it at his own discretion when he sees a good opening, but Rex chuckled and goes "I never thought he'd do it on 4th and 18..." A good moment, there. Credit to the guy for almost making it and having the brass big ones to make that call, but wow.

As for the Jets, though, I have to argue that the Packers really just demonstrated a blueprint on how to beat them, and Clay Matthews summed it up in one sentence: "We put the ball in Sanchez's hands." It's a bad thing when a defense realizes that their chance of winning goes up if they force your franchise quarterback to have to make plays. I've thought this about Sanchez for some time - that he's a very efficient game manager type of quarterback, who is reliable to protect a lead and take care of the ball. But when the game is on the line, when he's called upon to make a play, he's not the guy I want. And sure, you can say his receivers dropped a ton of balls in that game, but it still doesn't erase the lack of clutch credit on Sanchez's resume so far. While he may be looking more and more polished up to now, it just makes me happy that the Lions took the right guy at #1 in the '09 draft - the guy who can make that game-winning, clutch play when the ball is in his hands.

Final note....

Who knew that the Chiefs/Raiders game coming up in Week 9 would end up being a game that is going to have a huge impact, potentially, on the AFC West race? Both of these teams look far more credible than either the Chargers or woeful Broncos. Kudos to both of them. Tom Cable - I am not joking here - is my vote for Coach of the Year right now. It's taken time, but he's had to go back and forth through hell and adversity to get this team where it is now and many people called for his head multiple times along the way. Good for you, Cable Guy. Good for you, Al Davis, for sticking with him.

Pierce's Picks - Week 8

I was 10-4 last week, which moves me up to 64-40 on the year so far.

Winners in gold as always.

Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
Miami (3-3) @ Cincinnati (2-4)
Jacksonville (3-4) @ Dallas (1-5)
Washington (4-3) @ Detroit (1-5)
Buffalo (0-6) @ Kansas City (4-2)
Carolina (1-5) @ St. Louis (3-4)
Green Bay (4-3) @ NY Jets (5-1)
Denver (2-5) @ San Francisco (1-6)

Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
Tennessee (5-2) @ San Diego (2-5)
Tampa Bay (4-2) @ Arizona (3-3)
Minnesota (2-4) @ New England (5-1)
Seattle (4-2) @ Oakland (3-4)

Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (5-1) @ New Orleans (4-3)

Monday Night -
Houston (4-2) @ Indianapolis (4-2)

Byes: Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, NY Giants, Philadelphia

A good slate of games this week. A few must-wins scattered about, though. I believe Detroit has to beat Washington this weekend to establish any kind of credibility going forward - I believe they can, but it might be difficult as the offense adjusts to having Matthew Stafford under center again. I believe Indianapolis has to beat Houston, much like Houston had to beat them in Week 1. If Indianapolis loses another division game, that'll sink their in-division record and really hurt them when the playoff race heats up. Minnesota and San Diego look to get wins, but both are playing superior teams and I see both falling to 2-6. Cincinnati is a train wreck (who woulda thunk it, with TO and Ochocinco there...) and has to face a resilient Miami team that was victimized by the worst call of the week last week. I like Dallas to beat Jacksonville this week. Jon Kitna or not, if they can't beat Jacksonville at home this week, who can they beat going forward?

The Penultimate Weekend of October...

Let's start with the NFL.

Minnesota Vikings fans should be going after the head of Brad Childress. I've said it since I started living here - "The Tiny General", as a friend of mine refers to him, is not a good coach. He is a systematic coach. As long as the system is working, he looks fine. But when the system cracks or breaks down, he looks like he's at a total loss. At least he was fiery enough after the game to call out Favre, who is playing like a senior citizen. But let's take a look at what I thought was a critical moment in that game, moreso than all three of Favre's picks - and don't get me wrong, I love to villainize Favre at this point in his prolonged career, but he did not break this game to me. But when Childress hung it up with 20 seconds left in the 2nd quarter and 2 timeouts, I thought he gave up the game. In the immortal words of Herm Edwards - "Helloooooo! You play to win the game!" Brad Childress did not play to win the game. You do not give up at the end of the 2nd quarter, not when you have a quarterback who, senior citizen or not, still has a cannon and can throw it up to Randy Moss or Percy Harvin. When you hang it up right there and then, it tells me that you're afraid. It says you don't trust your offense. It says you're not playing to win. It says you're in damage control. Watching Pardon the Interruption today, Michael Wilbon was after Childress and said that if he ran the Vikings, Childress is in his office today and he's telling him that if he ever gives up on a drive like that, he's fired. I can't agree more. What stuns me right now is that the rest of the national media is overlooking this and instead feeding the attention-monger that is Brett Favre. Who is, by the way, as washed up as I've ever thought he is. I can't believe he's happy to be back this season at this point. If the Vikings want to win, they need to bring in T-Jack now and see what he's got, because beyond Childress's inane play-calling, Favre is making too many mistakes at critical moments.

In other coaching news, someone needs to slap Mike Singletary with some reality. I want to like him. I want to see him succeed. He was a great player and I think he could be a good coach. But he's starting to remind me of Rod Marinelli in the 2008 Lions 0-16 campaign. Every week, the same mantra to the press and every week, the same sad result on the field. For him to declare, after losing to the Carolina Panthers, that the 49ers could still make the playoffs, is a statement so steeped in denial that it just blew me away. It might be mathematically true, but that's the case for the Browns, Lions and Panthers too - but their coaches know what they're working with. And while you never want to publicly give up, you still can't pretend things are something they're not. And if you keep losing and keep coming out and saying the same thing, it tells me that you're out of ideas, you're out of tools and you're probably out of a job at the end of the season. Like Marinelli, I think Singletary will make a great LB coach (as he was in San Francisco) or, hopefully, a great defensive coordinator. But I'm starting to think the entire scope of the game, as a head coach, is too much for him to handle. On that note, anyone else laughing about the NFL giving England a game between the 49ers and Broncos next week? Which team lucked out with losing that home game this year?

Great World Series coming up, folks. Giants/Rangers looks good to me. I hope the fans prove the MLB wrong and watch it. I think this is a better series than if the Phillies or Yankees made it - the Rangers look great and Cliff Lee is, hands down, the best playoff pitcher in the game right now. As for the Giants, I'm glad to see Tim Lincecum in the Series. I look forward to this matchup, which is likely to be a pitching gauntlet all the way through. That's baseball, folks. Just like good football is about defense, good baseball is about pitching. I look forward to this Series matchup and even if you're not a fan of either team, I think Cliff Lee is must-watch TV at this point. On that note, I'm predicting the Rangers in 6.

Meanwhile, in college football, another #1 fell and now Auburn has leapfrogged a few teams to get to the top spot. I have trouble seeing Auburn stay undefeated. As much as I want to see Michigan State up there, I likewise don't think they'll stay undefeated. I think the only team likely to stay on that path is Oregon, which looks like they're in another class entirely from everyone else. What makes this year interesting is that as a new titan falls every week, Boise State or TCU inch closer and closer to a BCS Championship berth, if only because there aren't enough undefeated teams left to keep them out. And good for that! Let's get one of them into the championship because then the argument ends - either they win and prove they belong, or they lose and that will hang over them for the rest of time, insofar as the BCS exists. I've got my fingers crossed that we see one of them in the BCS Championship... hoisting a trophy at the end.

Pierce's Picks - Week 7

Last week was an outstanding 12-2!

That helps rebuild my season total to 54-36.

So let's get to this week's picks - winners in gold.

Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
Cincinnati (2-3) @ Atlanta (4-2)
Washington (3-3) @ Chicago (4-2)
Philadephia (4-2) @ Tennessee (4-2)
Jacksonville (3-3) @ Kansas City (3-2)
Pittsburgh (4-1) @ Miami (3-2)
Cleveland (1-5) @ New Orleans (4-2)
St. Louis (3-3) @ Tampa Bay (3-2)
San Francisco (1-5) @ Carolina (0-5)
Buffalo (0-5) @ Baltimore (4-2)

Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
Arizona (3-2) @ Seattle (3-2)
New England (4-1) @ San Diego (2-4)
Oakland (2-4) @ Denver (2-4)

Sunday Night -
Minnesota (2-3) @ Green Bay (3-3)

Monday Night -
NY Giants (4-2) @ Dallas (1-4)

Byes: Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, NY Jets

This is one of those weeks where it all looks pretty simple - lots of favored home teams who look like sure wins. I hate weeks like this because it means there's always a couple absurd upsets lurking. I like Dallas at home, in a must-win environment on Monday Night. I like Green Bay at home on Sunday Night. I think Denver has to beat Oakland, and should, but that game could go upset... Oakland plays some scrappy ball. St. Louis could beat the Bucs, too, but I think the Bucs are playing very solid fundamental football and that will win you games. I hear Jacksonville is starting Todd Bouman at QB, so if you need a lock this week, take Kansas City. Atlanta is back at home, so they'll win, no problem. Miami hasn't won at home yet this year (they're 0-2 at home, 3-0 on the road) and I think that trend continues against the indomitable-looking Steelers.

The NFL's Big Hits Conundrum

I've waited a few days to update. I was going to on Monday, then on Tuesday, but decided to wait until today. I've been mulling over some thoughts as the NFL has come to the controversial decision to start suspending players who deliver big helmet-leading hits. Many players and former players are outraged. Some say it's about time. There are certainly plenty of opinions floating around about this.

I think that the bottom line about the rule change is this - how will the officials enforce it? Let's remember that it is in the rulebook that you are not supposed to lead with your helmet on a hit. However, this often goes unenforced. My biggest concern - and I think this is what most players are feeling - is how does this impact a defensive player's ability to make a play on the ball? After all, football is a game of impact and most impact is incidental. I dislike the idea of incidental conduct resulting in possible suspensions.

On that note, how funny is it that this is an issue now? The most horrific hit I've ever seen landed was in 2008, when Anquan Boldin was leveled by a NY Jets safety on a helmet-to-helmet hit. The safety was trying to make a play on the ball. So was Boldin. Both were airborne. Boldin went up to catch it; the safety launched himself to get in front of Boldin and perhaps knock down the ball. Boldin, upon making the catch, was drilled from behind by another Jets player - the impact of that hit pushed him into the trajectory of the airborne safety, resulting in a the safety's helmet coming up on the underside of Boldin's jaw, breaking it. This was not his intent. He would have been fine had Boldin not been pushed into his trajectory from another hit. While a horrific impact without a doubt, it was an unintentional play with no intended malice. The player - a second string safety, as I recall - was fined $15,000, a significant amount for a backup. I felt this was undeserved.

So anyway, how come that hit didn't trigger this discussion? Kurt Warner, after that game, openly contemplated retiring then and there, he was so effected by what he saw. Where was the outcry then? The NFL has been profiting on these hits for years. The NFL has encouraged these hits for years. Why the sudden change? I don't think this week was so much worse than any other - yes, the Dunta Robinson hit on DeSean Jackson was brutal (but also incidental, it seemed to me), as were the others, but let's be realistic... they happen every week. So why now? A friend of mine and I were discussing today that hey, it seems convenient that this concern with player health happens to coincide with the push for an 18-game season. Seems very convenient... after all, 18 games will be easier to play with tougher rules on impact, right? Funny, that...

Which brings me to my next point. The NFL has proven one thing to me to this point - it's all about the money. I have no doubt in my mind at this moment that the NFL has virtually no concern for player safety and health, regardless of what they say. The NFL is pushing more games - increased risk. The NFL has been encouraging "big hits" for years. In fact, just today, the NFL was selling pictures of the Brandon Meriweather hit on Todd Heap and of the James Harrison hit on Mohammed Massaquoi on NFL.com. For anywhere from $15-$200 each. Of course, the league apologized profusely once this was noticed by the national media. But let's get real. The NFL is in it for money. End of story. And now that there's enough noise about concussions, I think they're only enforcing their rules to aid their own agenda - the increased revenue of an 18-game season. Mark my words here and now that if these rules do reduce concussion risks, which they ought to, they will use that as fodder to promote the 18-game season and use it as an argument regarding their concern for player health and how the game is now safer for more games.

And remember that the NFL could have changed this anytime with far less hoopla - by simply coming down on the officials to call more helmet-leading hit penalties. But the NFL didn't enforce that, because it was profitable. The true culture of the NFL isn't about the way the rules are written, but how they are enforced on the field by the officials. And really, that's the ultimate question about this - how will the officials enforce these rules now? There is, believe it or not, a chance that this ends up being the biggest non-story of the year, for that reason.

Pierce's Picks - Week 6

Ouuuuuuuuuuuch. 7-7 again last week. What a brutally unpredictable season it's been so far this year!

That puts me at 42-34 so far. That's drawing closer and closer to .500...

So here we go, winners in gold as always.

Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
Seattle (2-2) @ Chicago (4-1)
Baltimore (4-1) @ New England (3-1)
Detroit (1-4) @ NY Giants (3-2)
Atlanta (4-1) @ Philadelphia (3-2)
Cleveland (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-1)
Miami (2-2) @ Green Bay (3-2)
San Diego (2-3) @ St. Louis (2-3)
New Orleans (3-2) @ Tampa Bay (3-1)
Kansas City (3-1) @ Houston (3-2)

Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
Oakland (2-3) @ San Francisco (0-5)
NY Jets (4-1) @ Denver (2-3)
Dallas (1-3) @ Minnesota (1-3)

Sunday Night -
Indianapolis (3-2) @ Washington (3-2)

Monday Night -
Tennessee (3-2) @ Jacksonville (3-2)

I almost picked Minnesota over Dallas. Then a friend of mine reminded me of how the Vikings shamelessly ran up the score on Dallas in the playoffs last year... I see this game as serious retribution for the Cowboys and I see them winning it. As in life, as in sports - karma is a bitch. I want to believe in Denver at home, but I can't... I think Denver is a good team and Kyle Orton is playing out of his mind, but the Jets just look solid. I think the Patriots come off their bye without Moss and hit a win... Brady is no stranger to winning without a highlight receiver, but then again, those were in the glory days of the New England defense, too. Like Denver, I want to believe in Atlanta, but the Falcons have always been a better home team... if they're legit contenders, they win this game. I don't think they're there yet. The Giants seem to alternate good stretches with bad stretches and have won their last two decisively; I want to hope they'll drop one to the Lions, who need to end their road losing streak, but with Calvin Johnson likely out, I have trouble believing in the Honolulu Blue and Silver this week.

October is off and running...

A busy October and it's only the 9th! The 2010-11 NHL season has begun, the MLB playoffs have begun, the 2010 NFL season is a quarter over... some big trades have gone down and we already have a Heisman frontrunner in the college football ranks. Let's take a look.

The Likely Reunion
Randy Moss made no secret at the start of the year that he was unhappy having to play for a contract in New England. Probably because he knew, having looked at how Bill Belicheck and the Patriots do business, that his services were not going to be retained after the year. Whether he became a cancer in the locker room or not, we'll never know. But something was definitely amiss for the Patriots to unload him for a 3rd-round draft pick - especially to a team they have on their schedule. But make no mistake - the Patriots think they're better off and if there's any team that can be successful spreading the ball around to a group of mostly-unknown receivers, it's the Patriots. They won a Super Bowl that way. Meanwhile, Moss becomes an immediate upgrade to a reeling Vikings team. Say what you like about the reasons why, but Favre is struggling mightily. Maybe it's age, maybe it's unfamiliarity with his receiving corps. What I see is an older quarterback who can still heave it, but needs help. Part of what made Sidney Rice so important was that he had a guy who was physically dominant and could go get the ball when he chucked it up there. No one on the current Vikings roster can do that - until now. And I imagine every quarterback feels more comfortable with a guy he knows will actively go get the ball and doesn't need it thrown between the numbers each time. And for only a 3rd-round pick? The Vikings definitely got the better part of the deal. But make no mistake - this also means Favre has no excuses now. He's got his guy - he's clamored to play with Moss for years. If he continues to struggle, it's firmly on his shoulders alone now.

The Best of the Mediocre?
Much has been noted this week about how parity reigns this year in the NFL - most teams are 2-2. There is only one undefeated. There are only four winless. Moreso than any other year recently, it is hard to pick winners. Teams that seem reliable drop easy wins. Teams that look hopeless pick up wins. I've seen several games where the dominant team somehow loses. It's been an odd start to the season, but make no mistake - it keeps things exciting. There are a lot of teams that are better than their records, I think. Many divisions are going to be wide open past the halfway mark of the season. Buckle up, folks, because this is going to be a crazier year than any of us thought. But I will tell you this - the class of the league is in the AFC. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and the NY Jets all look poised to smoke anyone in their way. As far as the NFC goes, I was high on Green Bay, but they're not impressing and, quite frankly, there's no team stepping up and crushing their competition the way the Steelers, Jets or Ravens are in the AFC.

Thank you, Atlanta Braves...
For actually giving us an MLB LDS series worth watching. Seeing the Yankees dominate the Twins yet again has been unspeakably disheartening, since this looked like the Twins' year and they should be taking advantage of homefield, well, advantage, but they didn't and now they continue to prove their postseason ineptitude against the Yankees. The Rays are similarly playing letdown baseball against a Rangers team that I, personally, don't think is better. The Phillies are dominating the Reds, but that's no surprise to me. Meanwhile, the Braves are thankfully putting on a series against the Giants - perhaps the most even matchup of the playoffs so far. Personally, if the Twins lose, I'm rooting for the Braves, because how sweet would it be to see Bobby Cox win another World Series as he walks off into the sunset? Still, right now though, I wonder if anyone can really beat the Phillies.

Can the Spartans tie up Shoelace?
The marquee college football matchup of the weekend is, unquestionably, Michigan State vs. Michigan. No, this isn't home bias on my part. Well, maybe a little. But make no mistake - Denard Robinson is the most electric player in college football right now, but he also hasn't faced a serious defense yet. He will today against Michigan State. Until now, he's separated himself by leaps and bounds from the rest of the pack insofar as the Heisman race goes - he's accomplishing feats that are simply unbelievable. But the question remains, can he do it against a credible defensive unit? While this game isn't likely to have huge bearing on who plays in the BCS Championship in January, it will be an entertaining matchup between two unbeatens in an in-state rivalry game and it is a huge benchmark game for Denard "Shoelace" Robinson. If he can light up the Spartan defense, I say the Heisman race ends today.

And the NHL season begins...
And it already seems like a season to remember. In the first night of play, we had the first fight of the year, in which Steve MacIntyre of the Oilers knocked out Raitis Ivanans of the Flames with a blow that, reportedly, might have resulted in some brain damage (Ivanans had to be helped off the ice). In the second night of play, the Atlanta Thrashers' goalie, Ondrej Pavelec collapsed unexpectedly while play was stopped at the other end of the ice. Meanwhile, on Friday, the Red Wings notched a most dominant win, 4-0 against the Anaheim Ducks. In a most remarkable way to start the year, the Wings see Jimmy Howard notch a shutout in the first game of the year, see hometown newcomer Mike Modano score a goal on his first shot in the Red and White, and see one of their best players - Pavel Datsyuk - record a Gordie Howe Hat Trick (goal, assist, fight), a rather unlikely event for a man who's won four straight Lady Byng Trophies (for sportsmanship). As coach Mike Babcock and fellow star Henrik Zetterburg joked after the game, it probably won't be a fifth straight this year now. I've said it since the Wings signed Modano - the magic is with this team this year and Friday night's win to open the season has not changed my mind. Lord Stanley's Cup is coming back to Detroit in 2011.

Pierce's Picks - Week 5

I didn't have time last week to do a Recap, so I'll just leave it at this - I was a rough 7-7 again last week.

That puts me at 35-27 for the season.

Gold remains the color used to denote winners.

Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
Jacksonville (2-2) @ Buffalo (0-4)
Tampa Bay (2-1) @ Cincinnati (2-2)
Atlanta (3-1) @ Cleveland (1-3)
St. Louis (2-2) @ Detroit (0-4)
Kansas City (3-0) @ Indianapolis (2-2)
Green Bay (3-1) @ Washington (2-2)
Chicago (3-1) @ Carolina (0-4)
Denver (2-2) @ Baltimore (3-1)
NY Giants (2-2) @ Houston (3-1)

Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
New Orleans (3-1) @ Arizona (2-2)
San Diego (2-2) @ Oakland (1-3)
Tennessee (2-2) @ Dallas (1-2)

Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (2-2) @ San Francisco (0-4)

Monday Night -
Minnesota (1-2) @ NY Jets (3-1)

Byes -
Miami, New England, Pittsburgh, Seattle

So a couple words on my picks - I like Carolina to get an unlikely win against the Todd Collins Show; I don't like Chicago and I like them less without Cutler. I think San Francisco can beat the Kolb-led Eagles. Randy Moss adds a lot to the Vikings, but not enough to beat a team that's better at every position. If Kansas City were hosting Indianapolis, I'd be all over picking them to win... on that note, if you look at ESPN's Eliminator Challenge, 28% of participants are locked into the Colts beating the last unbeaten team... I'm not that confident in that pick, not by a longshot. I think Cincy is overrated and Tampa is underrated, plus I think most teams play with a boost coming out of their bye. The Lions have to win this week at home or I think all of their offseason momentum evaporates and it just becomes another ho-hum year of struggling to be mediocre.

Pierce's Picks - Week 4

Last week was a rough 7-9.

On the season, I'm at 28-20.

We'll keep with the gold color for marking winners.

Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
San Francisco (0-3) @ Atlanta (2-1)
NY Jets (2-1) @ Buffalo (0-3)
Cincinnati (2-1) @ Cleveland (0-3)
Detroit (0-3) @ Green Bay (2-1)
Denver (1-2) @ Tennessee (2-1)
Seattle (2-1) @ St. Louis (1-2)
Carolina (0-3) @ New Orleans (2-1)
Baltimore (2-1) @ Pittsburgh (3-0)

Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
Indianapolis (2-1) @ Jacksonville (1-2)
Houston (2-1) @ Oakland (1-2)
Arizona (2-1) @ San Diego (1-2)
Washington (1-2) @ Philadelphia (2-1)

Sunday Night -
Chicago (3-0) @ NY Giants (1-2)

Monday Night -
New England (2-1) @ Miami (2-1)

Byes -
Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota, Tampa Bay

I like to think this might be the week my Lions get an unlikely victory that shocks the world, but that's probably not happening and I'm not betting on it. If Pittsburgh can beat Baltimore and start 4-0 without Big Ben, that team earns my vote of confidence as the most dominant team in the NFL through the first quarter of the season. The Bears might go 4-0 also, but they're winning with luck as much as anything, although the weakness of their schedule going forward might propel them even higher yet. A lot of teams like the 49ers, Seahawks, Giants and Broncos could use victories this week to help even out their records or regain some semblance of respect, but I have trouble thinking it's going to happen.

NFL Week 3 - Recap

Long in coming; apologies for the delay. It's been a hectic week outside of the sports world for me. So, without further ado, my delayed recap of Week 3 action...

Kansas City 31, San Francisco 10
Yeouch. What else is there to say? San Francisco got torched in this one and it's set in motion the wheels of panic, as suddenly it looks like Mike Singletary is out of his depth as a head coach. I'm a fan of Singletary's, but I have to wonder. This game begs the question - is Kansas City really this good, or is San Francisco just this bad? Nonetheless, the Chiefs are 3-0 and you can't knock that. They're explosive on offense, stout on defense and play in a weak division. That's a recipe for success.
Pierce's Pick - SF

Baltimore 24, Cleveland 17
Joe Flacco and the Ravens finally have the explosive week on offense we've all been expecting, but that it waited until the Browns is a concern. We'll see how the Ravens play against the Steelers this week. Meanwhile, the Browns are bad, but they did hang in this game on the scoreboard.
Pierce's Pick - BAL

Dallas 27, Houston 13
The Cowboys found much needed life in this one, which was a much needed win that keeps them afloat. Houston loses a game they barely had any place in. I'm still high on the Texans, but credit to the Cowboys for manning out a win when they needed it most. And who knew Roy Williams could still play? Go figure.
Pierce's Pick - HOU

Minnesota 24, Detroit 10
The anemic Lions offense, as well as a handful of bad penalties at worse times gave the Vikings the win and saved their season early. I still think the Vikings are struggling at best; barring a couple big plays and foibles by the Lions, the Vikes could easily be 0-3. The Lions look awful on offense. They clearly need Matthew Stafford back. Losing Jahvid Best in the first half clearly crippled any explosiveness they might have had, too. As long as Calvin Johnson remains invisible for long spans at a time, the Lions will have trouble winning. The Viking defense is the best part of their team right now - their offense isn't impressing, either.
Pierce's Pick - DET

New England 38, Buffalo 30
How did Buffalo stay in this one? Apparently Ryan Fitzpatrick showed the coaching staff enough that Trent Edwards got shown the door afterwards. The Bills are still awful, but it speaks volumes about the inexperienced Patriots defense that the Bills hung up 30 on them. Still, the Patriots are clicking on offense and that can make them hard to beat.
Pierce's Pick - NE

Atlanta 27, New Orleans 24
This had the feeling of a trap game for me - only because Atlanta had to win it to make a statement in the division. A loss here more or less asserts the Saints' dominance in the NFC South. Garrett Hartley missed a couple FGs in Week 1 against Minnesota - the Saints clearly are concerned after he missed a 32-yard game winner in this one, so they brought John Carney back. Can't argue with that, but they should keep Hartley nonetheless - remember that Dallas cut Nick Folk similarly and he's fine in New York now. But some veteran insurance never hurts; second-year players, kickers or not, should be allowed their growing pains.
Pierce's Pick - NO

Tennessee 29, NY Giants 10
The Giants look bad. Tennessee went nuts on them and they responded as a team out of control. A week after Brandon Jacobs threw his helmet into the stands in Indianapolis, Tom Coughlin had to hope his team would buckle down and maintain some extra discipline. It didn't happen and now it appears as though the Giants are unraveling. Fast.
Pierce's Pick - TEN

Pittsburgh 38, Tampa Bay 13
Tampa is a good, rebuilding team, but they're just that. Meanwhile, whoever is at quarterback, the Steelers are clearly contenders - perhaps the strongest team in the AFC. Charlie Batch becomes the feel-good story of the week as a result and I leave Mike Wallace on my fantasy bench the week he goes off. The Steeler defense is as good as its ever been. This is a team to fear.
Pierce's Pick - PIT

Cincinnati 20, Carolina 7
The Jimmy Clausen era has started and it wasn't pretty. The Panthers look lost and, as I pointed out last week, remain unable to run the ball. Until that changes, this team will be winless and toothless.
Pierce's Pick - CIN

Philadelphia 28, Jacksonville 3
Another strong performance by Michael Vick has early MVP whispers circulating, which is perhaps as ludicrous as anything. But credit Vick for playing very well so far. But his real test comes when he plays teams that aren't Detroit or Jacksonville. The Jags also appear to be toothless; another loss is no surprise to me as I continue to think, as I do every year, that this has to be the final year of the Jack Del Rio era there.
Pierce's Pick - PHI

St. Louis 30, Washington 16
The Rams are showing spunk now, something that doesn't surprise me after how close their recent contests came. This is a team with leadership on offense and defense now and as they assemble more talent and continuity, they'll continue to improve. Much like the Kansas City/San Francisco game, this might tell us more about how bad the Redskins are than about how good the Rams may or may not be.
Pierce's Pick - WAS

Indianapolis 27, Denver 13
This was a fun game to watch - Kyle Orton is playing very well in Denver this year and honestly, as I watched this game, I had to remind myself throughout that Denver wasn't winning. They seemed to outplay the Colts except in clutch situations. I still like the Broncos in a weak division. The Colts are still the Colts though. Anyone can make a play for Peyton and they'll win if the other team doesn't capitalize on every opportunity.
Pierce's Pick - IND

Arizona 24, Oakland 23
How come nobody like Bruce Gradkowski? When he was in Tampa for awhile, he played well enough - although obviously needing time to develop. Whenever he plays in Oakland, the team rallies, but then coaching eventually benches him again. It's odd. The Cardinals win, but this closeness of this contest speaks to how much they've lost in the past year. They're a mediocre team at best.
Pierce's Pick - ARI

Seattle 27, San Diego 20
This is a game the Chargers should have won but did not. Credit to the Seahawks for some fantastic special teams play and let this game remind us that you should never, ever doubt the Seahawks at home. It'll be interesting to see if the Chargers shake out of their September swoon like usual or not this year. The division is weak, but I like both the Chiefs and the Broncos more than the Chargers. Likewise, the Seahawks are making their bid at rising to the top of an otherwise weak division.
Pierce's Pick - SD

NY Jets 31, Miami 23
It's hard to really not like the Jets right now. The Dolphins look good, too, but this was a big statement game for the Jets to say that they want this division. The Dolphins have a habit of owning their division competition at home, but not this time. A close, gritty game. Speaking of aged running backs, it looks like Ricky Williams lost his magic from last year and LT took it. Also, the Wildcat is closer to death than it was a year ago. It seems like every Wildcat down I see, by any team, is a wasted down. Last year that didn't include Miami, but this year it seems less effective for them, as well. I've also questioned how much it's stunted Chad Henne's growth.
Pierce's Pick - MIA

Chicago 20, Green Bay 17
Chicago is the luckiest team in the NFL right now, after a ridiculous rule gave them a win over Detroit and the Packers pretty much handed them this one. I missed the game, but in watching highlights, it looked like the Bears did everything possible to lose but the Packers just wouldn't let them. I still think the Packers are the class of the NFC, but they won't be if they have another game like this one. I have to think that the luck of the Bears will run out, but they do have a schedule favorable enough that they could contend going forward. It'll be interesting to find out as the season unfolds.
Pierce's Pick - GB

Pierce's Picks 2010 - Week 3

Last week, I managed to go 10-6, although for some reason I felt like I did much worse. Seemed like the games I was confident about were off and the ones I was shaky on panned out. Go figure.

That puts me at 21-11 on the season, which isn't too shabby so far.

I've been told that bold is a little hard to discern with white text on black background, so we'll mix it up this week and put the winning team in gold and see how that works. After all, gold is the color of the Saints and they are the reigning champions, so it seems fitting to pick winners in one of the Saints' colors, yes? Let me know!

I'm also including the win/loss records for teams starting this week.

Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
San Francisco (0-2) @ Kansas City (2-0)
Cleveland (0-2) @ Baltimore (1-1)
Dallas (0-2) @ Houston (2-0)
Detroit (0-2) @ Minnesota (0-2)
Buffalo (0-2) @ New England (1-1)
Atlanta (1-1) @ New Orleans (2-0)
Tennessee (1-1) @ NY Giants (1-1)
Pittsburgh (2-0) @ Tampa Bay (2-0)
Cincinnati (1-1) @ Carolina (0-2)

Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
Philadelphia (1-1) @ Jacksonville (1-1)
Washington (1-1) @ St. Louis (0-2)
Indianapolis (1-1) @ Denver (1-1)
Oakland (1-1) @ Arizona (1-1)
San Diego (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1)

Sunday Night -
NY Jets (1-1) @ Miami (2-0)

Monday Night -
Green Bay (2-0) @ Chicago (2-0)

A couple notes on these picks: Yes, I really do think Denver might beat Indianapolis at Mile High. I like the way the Broncos are playing and I think they can be legit. I'm low on the Colts this year, part Superbowl loser hangover, part because they're getting older and a bit slower. Yes, I really do think Detroit beats Minnesota. The Vikings are playing slow, uninspired football and I believe that's a bad recipe against a team that is playing hard and is very hungry for a victory. They'll throw the kitchen sink at Favre and he will eat some turf on Sunday.

Oh, and I'm picking 9 away teams to win. That obviously is not going to work, but what can I say, I have to go with the picks I'm feeling, right?

NFL Week 2 - Recap

Atlanta 41, Arizona 7
Is this a surprise to anyone here? The Cardinals are lost and floundering without Kurt Warner, meanwhile the Falcons are one of the best home teams in the league. I wonder how the Cardinals would be doing with Matt Leinart...
Pierce's Pick - ARI.

Cincinnati 15, Baltimore 10
Another ugly game for the Ravens, and this time they didn't come out on top. These two teams made significant upgrades to their passing corps, but neither one can really get anything convincing going yet. I still think both are strong playoff contenders, but another poor performance from either and I might have to revise that statement. It's worth remembering, though, that the Bengals were rock-solid against their AFC North rivals last year and they've continued that into 2010 now.
Pierce's Pick - BAL.

Kansas City 16, Cleveland 14
The Browns are still bad. Kansas City might actually be developing some potential, though. But if I were a Browns fan, I might be taking a look at the 2011 Draft already, because there aren't many teams that look as lost as they do.
Pierce's Pick - KC.

Chicago 27, Dallas 20
And in Week 2, the Cowboys are in free fall. Ouch. How did the Bears win this when the 'Boys supposedly dominated their offensive line? Jay Cutler must have learned how to effectively run for his life lately - in fact, he moved quite well against the Lions. Good for him. Jerry Jones can't be happy at this point. Dallas has a tough game against Houston next, too, so 0-3 isn't unrealistic. Hard to recover from that.
Pierce's Pick - DAL.

Philadelphia 35, Detroit 32
A high-scoring affair, although I wonder about Detroit's attempted comeback here - was it legitimate, or did the Eagles defense go slack in what looked like garbage time? Either way, it's a thin line between 2-0 and 0-2 for the hungry Lions, who may yet surprise this season. Michael Vick looked sharp, I won't lie. The Eagles do have a better chance to win with him under center right now. If nothing else, in two games, the Lions have proven to have hit home-runs with both 1st-round draft picks this year.
Pierce's Pick - DET.

Green Bay 34, Buffalo 7
Buffalo officially enters the 2011 Draft Bowl with Cleveland. No surprise here as the Packers roll over them. If anything, I was surprised the Pack ended up having to kick two field goals. Not much else to say here other than the obvious - Green Bay is good; Buffalo is bad.
Pierce's Pick - GB.

Pittsburgh 19, Tennessee 11
The Steelers are 2-0 without Big Ben and likely to go 3-1 or better by his return. They're getting it done however they need to and managed to contain Chris Johnson. I'm not sure if anyone has noticed yet, but the Steelers are looking like they're a team on a mission this season and they're only going to get better once their starting QB returns to the lineup. As for Tennessee, what else is new - stop Chris Johnson, stop the Titans.
Pierce's Pick - TEN.

Miami 14, Minnesota 10
Another ugly loss for the Vikings who, like the Cowboys, may be approaching free-fall status. Suddenly they find themselves playing a critical game at home in Week 3 against the other 0-2 NFC North team and it is a game they could lose. The Dolphins, meanwhile, still bear the stamp of Parcells and Sparano - a gritty team that wins however it needs to when it needs to. Their defense is playing lights-out football and if you disregard those two unusual fumbles by Ronnie & Ricky, the Vikings really had no chance in this game.
Pierce's Pick - MIN.

Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 7
Carolina is bad. Tampa Bay might be for real. I don't expect contention this year, but it's clear that the youth movement in Tampa Bay is building something legitimate. Josh Freeman has a better record as a starter than his 2010 1st-round QB counterparts. Perhaps it is, after all, better to let a rookie learn from the sideline for at least half a season at first. Imagine that. Like the Titans, this game also proves that if the Panthers can't run the ball, they have no shot at winning a football game (or even being competitive; the Titans can at least be competitive if they can't run).
Pierce's Pick - TB.

Denver 31, Seattle 14
Never overestimate the Seahawks when they post a big win at home. Like Atlanta, Seattle is one of the better home teams in the league. On that note, it is not unusual for mediocre road teams to struggle mightily in Mile High Stadium. That being said, this result was as predictable as they come to me this week. Nevermind that Denver actually is a good football team and Seattle is, at best, a mediocre one.
Pierce's Pick - DEN.

Oakland 16, St. Louis 14
The Rams seem to be competing and, given the young talent they've been drafting, I can see them turning a corner later this season and winning 4 games or more. But not yet. Oakland isn't very good though, as the QB carousel continues to turn there. But mark my words, if this game was in November or December, Team Bradford posts a win.
Pierce's Pick - OAK.

NY Jets 28, New England 14
One game this week that truly surprised me. The Jets recover from that tough loss with a statement win against the Patriots. The Pats looked positively shell-shocked at times in this game as the Sanchize rolled his Jets down the field time and time again. But it's too early to make a decision on these two teams and their fates this year quite yet. Both are talented teams and I expect the AFC East race to remain tight between them and the Dolphins all year. But if you're the Jets, you definitely needed this win more than the Patriots. Credit to them for getting it.
Pierce's Pick - NE.

San Diego 38, Jacksonville 13
Ouch. I didn't see this one, but I wasn't surprised to see the Chargers bounce back against the Jags after their stunning loss to a division rival on national television. David Garrard looked awful. The Jags are a team on the cusp almost every year and, right now, this year looks no different to me. They'll win some, lose some, surprise and disappoint and remain on the outside looking in yet again. I've predicted such year after year and it amazes me that Jack Del Rio still coaches there - I like the guy as a coach, but he just can't get this team over the hump.
Pierce's Pick - SD.

Houston 30, Washington 27
A few people have talked about the grit Houston showed in this game, but I have to wonder how it came to that point at all. They were in Washington sure, and credit to them for a great comeback, but that was Washington's game to give away after the half. I want to buy into the Texans - another team perpetually on the cusp - but I need to see a solid performance against Dallas to believe they're for real. A tough loss for the Redskins, but this is clearly a much better team than it was last year and they can walk away with that, at least. Besides, they ought to still be warm from that bizarre victory over Dallas a week ago.
Pierce's Pick - HOU.

Indianapolis 38, NY Giants 14
Elder brothers never let their younger brothers beat them in front of a crowd. Any sibling knows this. Try and try as the younger may, it's just not something that the elder will allow. It's almost impossible. I had no doubt the Colts would win this one; but I didn't expect it to be so lopsided and I certainly didn't expect Brandon Jacobs to throw his helmet into the stands. I still think the Giants are a solid team this year, though.
Pierce's Pick - IND.

New Orleans 25, San Francisco 22
Why was this game so close? The Saints offense appears to be sputtering or, at least, has been figured out by the two coaches they've played so far. Nonetheless, they can still run it on you and beat you with screen passes. The 49ers showed a lot of grit in this game and should come away from it prouder than they left Seattle. This game actually raised more questions about the Saints than the 49ers for me. That is not a team that looks like it will repeat, to me.
Pierce's Pick - NO.