Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Wednesday, July 27th - Handling controversial calls; some initial thoughts on NFL transactions.

Those pesky close calls...


Last night saw another epic game go the potentially wrong way.  In the longest game of the year to date, a 19-inning marathon, it was a questionable call at home that turned the game.

The Pirates and Braves had battled 19-innings.  Scott Proctor hit a fielder's choice.  Julio Lugo dashed home from third.  The throw went to home, where Braves catcher Mike McKenry made what looked to be the tag.  The umpire called it safe.

I watched the video a couple times.  Depending on the ump's angle, I can see where it could have looked ambiguous.  But it reminds me of the logic I took into the Armando Galarraga - if it's an ambiguous call, in a moment like that, you make the safe call, you call the out.  If a guy has a perfect game on the line and I'm 50/50 on the call, I call it out.  I just do.  You don't upset a moment like that if you're not certain.  And I feel the same about this game.  If you were 50/50 on the call, you call him out, because you're calling the game right there.

It looked to me like the tag was applied.  Lugo made a heck of a slide - no doubt.  But McKenry was pretty much on top of him before he got to the plate.  It's hard for me to see for sure that Lugo was safe - whereas there's an overwhelming sense that he's out.  I'd call the out.

But you figure, hey, the umpires are people too.  And after 19 innings, how much accuracy can you expect?  The guy probably wanted to go home.  No one wants to play baseball for six hours straight.  Not many people even can.  This is why replay really needs to play a larger role in baseball.  Not a huge role, but moments like these should, maybe, be taken off the umpires' shoulders - oh sure, they still make the calls, but let them have replay to back them up so we can avoid these firestorms.

Everyone says replay would slow the game down too much.  I disagree, not if it's executed properly.  We're not going to replay every play.  That's idiotic.  Do it look football.  Give managers two replay challenges per game - one on a fielding play (a fair/foul call, a safe/out call, a home run review, etc) and one on a pitching play (strike/ball, etc).  They get only one of each and that's it.  Use it and lose it.  I don't even think most of them would get used.  Maybe one or two per day.  But let's face it - if a rule like this was in place, we might have had a 20+ inning game last night, and MLB might have had one more perfect game rightfully recorded in its annals.  It's worth a thought.

Initial wave of NFL moves.


The Seahawks let Matt Hasselbeck walk in favor of signing Tavaris Jackson and Matt Leinart to compete with Charlie Whitehurst for the starting job.  Seahawks fans I know are in an uproar about this, but I think it's a good idea.  Hasselbeck is the past - and say what you want about Carroll, he's pushing a youth movement in Seattle.  You can't do that in full if you hang onto your old quarterback.  He's giving three young quarterbacks a fair chance to prove themselves and I think one of them will stand out.  Neither Leinart nor Jackson got fair trials with their past teams - when Jackson led the Vikings to a playoff berth, he was immediately replaced with Brett Favre; when Warner retired, Leinart apparently got on the bad side of the coaching staff and wasn't given another shot.  I think both are going to be gnashing the bit to prove themselves.  It might be a rough year or two in Seattle while Carroll's people and system falls into place fully, but I like the process so far.

The Titans are going to pick up Matt Hasselbeck.  It's going to be very interesting watching him mentor former University of Washington standout Jake Locker - especially since Locker's mobility is one of his prime attributes and Hasselbeck is... not so mobile.  I'll be interested to see what the Titans offense looks like this year with Hasselbeck under center; he's more capable than Kerry Collins was.  Will they have the passing game they've always lacked?  Still, it's a good move - Locker will need mentoring to be successful.

The Vikings are rumored to have a trade scenario in place to obtain Donovan McNabb.  This is two years too late.  He would have been a perfect fit as a mentor to Tavaris Jackson (similar styles), but I'm not sure he and Christian Ponder will find so much in common.  Why pursue Donovan McNabb if Kyle Orton is available, unless the Broncos are asking for a king's ransom for him?

The Patriots cut Tully Banta-Cain and I'm interested to see what happens to him in a weak OLB market.  He's coming off of surgery and isn't a spring chicken anymore, but he could help a team who needs a quick fix there, like the Lions.  The Cowboys let Roy Williams go, adding one last exclamation point on how badly the Lions fleeced them in that trade.  Still, if Roy will take a small contract, perhaps incentive-laden, I could see him re-emerging as a #2/#3 guy somewhere.  But that's if he has the hunger, and you've really got to wonder there.

These Brett Favre-to-Philadelphia rumors are ridiculous.  Seriously.  He and his agent have both said no, he's retired, and there's no reason to believe otherwise, for once.  Who thinks this stuff up?  Do people sit in the ESPN boardroom or some other major sports news company and come up with random stories when its slow?  It was never credible to begin with and never made any sense, either.  While I think Brett Favre did a lot to put the spotlight on himself, I think the media did a lot of that too - time to stop, please.  Leave him alone.

Around the MLB -


LA Angels 2, Cleveland 1 - Jered Weaver remains unstoppable, improving to 14-4, edging out Josh Tomlin in a pitchers' duel.
Florida 11, Washington 2 - Greg Dobbs' 5 RBIs carried the Marlins to a rout, backing a six-inning effort by Ricky Nolasco.
NY Yankees 4, Seattle 1 - CC Sabathia took his MLB-leading 15th win in a dominant victory, sending the Mariners to a 17th-straight loss.
Philadelphia 7, San Francisco 2 - Vance Worley pitched his first complete game, allowing two runs and three hits over nine, striking out five, en route to his 7th win.
Baltimore 12, Toronto 4 - J.J. Hardy's 2 HRs and 4 RBIs helped power the Orioles to a surprise rout of Brandon Morrow and the Jays, putting up 10 runs over the second through fifth innings.
Boston 13, Kansas City 9 - David Ortiz had 5 RBIs in another game showcasing offense as the Sox and Royals clobbered each other.  Neither starter lasted four innings.
NY Mets 8, Cincinnati 6 - Errors by the Reds saved their starter, Johnny Cueto, from some earned runs, but not from the loss, as they allowed six unearned runs.
Atlanta 4, Pittsburgh 3 - The longest game of the year so far, 19 innings, was won on a controversial call at home, as per above.
Minnesota 9, Texas 8 - A big character win for the Twins after getting destroyed the night before; they rallied for two runs in the ninth to clinch the victory.
Milwaukee 3, Chi. Cubs 2 - The fireworks came early in this one - all runs were scored in the first inning, with Casey McGehee's 2 RBIs ultimately providing the game winner.
Detroit 5, Chi. White Sox 4 - Verlander allowed two 2-run HRs by the Sox, but clamped down on them otherwise, earning his 14th win to stay on pace in the Cy race with CC and Weaver.
St. Louis 3, Houston 1 - Pujols and Freese provided the runs for the Cards and Jake Westbrook's solid six-inning start.  Brett Myers threw the complete game loss for the Astros.
Arizona 6, San Diego 1 - Joe Saunders took the complete game for the D-Backs, allowing only one run and six hits in stifling the Padres.
Oakland 6, Tampa Bay 1 - Brandon McCarthy earned only his third win on a remarkable start against the Rays, allowing only one run and six hits in out-dueling David Price.
LA Dodgers 3, Colorado 2 - Clayton Kershaw saw his 12th win come as he held the Rockies to two runs and eight hits over seven innings.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Tuesday, July 26th - Changing of the guard in Detroit.

The first sport I really, truly paid attention to as a fan was hockey.  I mean, yeah, I followed baseball and football and basketball.  I knew who Cecil Fielder was.  I went to Tigers games.  I knew who Barry Sanders and Wayne Fontes were.  I knew who the Bad Boys were and who that tall white guy on the Pistons was (Bill Laimbeer).  I enjoyed all those things.

But for some reason, it was hockey that captivated me first.  I remember listening to hockey games on the radio more than I watched them and being drawn to the odd collection of names.  Lidstrom?  What's a Lidstrom to a 10-year old?  Kozlov?  Konstantinov?  I didn't even know how to say that.  It became a game for me, to learn these names and apply them to the correct jersey numbers and then be able to recognize them when I caught a game on TV - knowing, for instance, that number 5 was Lidstrom.  19 was Yzerman.  I had no idea how to spell Yzerman, either.  30 was Osgood, who I always thought bore a bit of a resemblance to a neighbor boy three or four years younger than me.  33 was Draper.  18 was Maltby.  25 was McCarty.  14 was Shanahan.  13 was Kozlov.  91 was Federov.  24 was Probert.

Yzerman was the face of the Red Wings.  A young Canadian brought in to rejuvenate the team.  The youngest Captain in the game's history.  He grew with the team, a team that captured the heart of a city.  Two other people probably made the Red Wings what they are to me.  First was Darren McCarty and not for the reasons you'd expect.  McCarty was a grinder; a physical guy who gave our opponents bruises.  McCarty scored a goal that was my first truly memorable hockey moment, the moment that I realized what it was to have a championship hometown team.  He faked out a Flyers defenseman and then deked Ron Hextall out of his skates to score the second goal of Game 4 of the 1997 Stanley Cup Finals.  It ended up being the game-winning goal that brought the Cup to Detroit for the first time in decades.  I get chills when I go back to watch that video, which I do periodically.  I remember watching that game and jumping up in disbelief, roaring my approval, knowing, even as a 13 year-old, that I'd seen something magical.  Knowing that everyone knew that, because the Joe Louis Arena went nuts when that goal was scored and didn't calm.  The place roared the rest of the game and everyone know that the game had been iced on that play.  It was magic.  The first time I experienced that kind of sports magic.  It addicted me.

The second moment I'll always remember, another defining moment, was when Vladimir Konstantinov's limo crashed, leaving him paralyzed.  He was the right wing of the line we nicknamed "The Russian Five" - a line of all Russian men, and he was the grinder of that line.  His career ended in one night, a week (to the day) after Darren McCarty and his magical goal won the Stanley Cup.  Disbelief of a different kind rocked the city and the emotional outpouring from the fanbase for a guy who didn't even speak English was remarkable.  Vigils were held.  And although it was never spoken, everyone knew the Red Wings would repeat.  Everyone knew that the next season was for Vladimir Konstantinov.  They roared to another Cup and after Steve Yzerman lifted it high again, Konstantinov was brought out in his wheelchair, to the ice, in his jersey, to share in the festivities.  There was never any doubt that season.  I have a framed picture of the team piled on the ice with the Cup, framed on a plague that hangs in my study.

Baseball, football and basketball combined have never given me moments that measured up to those.  There was always a certain magic to the Red Wings that made them a little extra special to me.  Maybe the Lions are coming into that, as their young team grows and matures and perhaps begins to contend.  I could see them capturing magic for a year or two and making a run and having one of those special seasons that everyone remembers.  I could see that.  And I've told my wife-to-be that if it ever happens, it'll be special thing, and I'll weep if the Lions ever lift the Lombardi Trophy.  Because that kind of magic is a special and emotional thing.  It brings cities together.

As I've grown from that kid, I haven't really felt my age until lately.  We all have different markers for how we measure our age, all outside of ourselves.  One of them, for me, is my younger sister.  When I realize how old she is now, I realize I'm no spring chicken anymore.  But the other is sports.  When I see guys I grew up watching retire, I realize, hey, I'm getting older.  This isn't quite the team I grew up with anymore.  When I see legends of my childhood, icons that are embedded in my childhood memories, die, I realize.  Ernie Harwell is the voice of baseball to me.  He's gone.  That one hit me hard.  Same for Sparky, who is the face of baseball.

The Red Wings are going through a changing of the guard.  Kris Draper retired today.  Chris Osgood retired last week.  Kirk Maltby has been gone for a year.  Shanahan, Federov, Yzerman, longer.  Soon, it'll be Nick Lidstrom's turn.  All of those guys from my childhood teams will be gone.  And oh, sure, the Red Wings carry on - they have Datsyuk and Zetterberg, Jimmy Howard, Nick Kronwall, and even younger upstarts like Darren Helm.  And while they're still my team, they're not quite that team of mine anymore, which is a fact that gets reinforced every time another member retires.

Around the MLB - 


San Diego 5, Philadelphia 4 - Cliff Lee barely made it four innings as the Padres shelled him early to back Aaron Harang's ninth victory.
Cleveland 3, LA Angels 2 - After blowing a 1-0 lead in the eighth, the Indians rallied from 2-1 in the ninth when rookie Jason Kipnis' first Major League hit ended up being the walk-off winner.
NY Yankees 10, Seattle 3 - The Yankees got on the board early, backing Freddy Garcia and serving the Mariners their 16th straight loss.
Kansas City 3, Boston 1 - A rain delay turned this into a late affair and going 14 innings didn't help - but the Royals ended it then with Mike Aviles' squeeze bunt scoring the go-ahead run.
NY Mets 4, Cincinnati 2 - A four-run seventh inning was all the Mets scored, but also all they needed to top the Reds after an otherwise stellar start by Mike Leake.
Pittsburgh 3, Atlanta 1 - It was a pitchers' duel between Tim Hudson and James McDonald, but the Pirates' bullpen held tight after their starter left in the sixth.
Texas 20, Minnesota 6 - The Twins got decimated in a game that saw seven errors between both teams and the most runs scored in a game by one team yet this year.
Chi. White Sox 6, Detroit 3 - A bases-loaded jam in the fifth proved to be the turning point, as the Tigers buckled and the White Sox relievers held on for the win.
St. Louis 10, Houston 5 - Molina, Rasmus and Punto crossed the plate a combined 7 times for the Cards, providing the firepower in this one from the back end of the lineup.
Oakland 7, Tampa Bay 5 - Down 5-2 in the sixth, the A's bats got crackin', taking advantage of the Tampa bullpen and coming back for the win.
LA Dodgers 8, Colorado 5 - A rookies' duel of Rubby De La Rosa and Juan Nicasio saw De La Rosa emerge, allowing only one run in six innings.

Monday, July 25, 2011

Monday, July 25th - The NFL Lockout ends; more Twins/Tigers thoughts.

It's just about official.


The NFL Lockout that has plagued us since March is ending.  Players are signing off on the deal today and within the next couple days, should recertify as a union.  It sounds like the league year will start in early August, although ESPN is reporting rumors that transactions will be allowed as early as today or tomorrow, they just won't take full effect until the league year starts.  Players will report to camps this week.

Football is happening.

No sure word on when preseason games begin; the Hall of Fame game, which opens the preseason, was canceled last week (it would have been next Thursday).

As the 2011 NFL Season begins, prepare yourselves for these things in the next month:

1) Surprisingly no fallout from the lockout.  With no real games missed, football-starved fans will flock back to the game as per normal.

2) One of the sloppiest preseasons in history.  With little-to-no training camp to prepare rookies and free agent acquisitions for training camp, there are going to be some really hairy games out there.

3) One of the most insane free agent/trade frenzies in history.  Get ready for a barrage of trades and signings this week and next.  The free agent period that's typically 1-2 months long is being crammed into a 1-2 week period.

I've done my best not to think too much about football while it was locked out, other than keeping up on the latest major lockout news.  My thinking was, hey, if they're locked out, it virtually doesn't exist, why pay attention to the greedy people?  Well, it's over now, and I feel like I'm behind the 8-ball when it comes to fantasy football preparation.  In the coming weeks, there will be division previews, division predicitions, trade/free agent analyses and fantasy football primers.  Get ready folks, it's football season!

Tigers top the Twins again.


Got to watch three of the four Tigers/Twins games this weekend.  Missed Verlander's start (figures), but saw the other three.  Observations basically come down to this - Baker's good.  If he stays at the level he is, he's the closest thing to an ace the Twins have.  You can't really give that Tigers lineup any leeway, as Liriano learned - just took a couple walks and the damage started.  Not sure what to make of Wilson Betemit yet - he struck out a lot over the weekend, but he might be trying too hard to impress a new team.  His range isn't what Inge's is, either.

The Tigers look poised to win the division still, but that fifth starter is worrisome.  A move has to happen.

The Twins look perfectly average.  I'm going to rant and rail about it until the trade deadline, but they need to sell.  I realize there's a certain degree of expectation and pride coming in, since they expected to win this year, but they need to give it up.  They will factor into the race - they'll serve some crucial losses to the three teams ahead of them - but they won't win it.  If I'm the Twins GM right now, I'm shopping everyone with an expiring contract and seeing what we can get.  They should be setting a foundation for next season.

I actually expected the series to split, but the Tigers pitched better than I expected and the Twins played worse than I expected, in general.  I'm not sure what difference a pitching coach change makes, but since the Tigers fired Rick Knapp and promoted Jeff Jones to pitching coach, their starters have been doing better.  Then again, it's a small sample size.  Porcello's win last night made Detroit the second team to have three pitchers hit the 10-win mark so far this season (Texas was first).  I said it before and I'll say it again - Porcello is the key to this season - if he can pitch well, be reliable as that 3rd playoff starter type of guy (behind Verlander and Scherzer), they can go all the way.  I trust Porcello before I trust Penny.

Around the MLB -


Chi. White Sox 4, Cleveland 2 - Edwin Jackson and Justin Masterson dueled, but it was three unearned runs for the Sox that made the difference.  Cleveland has only beaten Chicago once so far this year.
NY Yankees 7, Oakland 5 - Bartolo Colon's strong seven-inning, two-run start pushed the Yankees along before the bullpen almost blew it.  The Yankees shelled six of their runs against Gio Gonzalez.
Florida 5, NY Mets 4 - Behind 4-3 in the eighth, Logan Morison and John Buck stood up with a homer and RBI double (respectively) to ensure a comeback victory.
LA Angels 9, Baltimore 3 - Hot prospect Mike Trout hit his first career home run to assist in the Tyler Chatwood-led rout of the Orioles.
Philadelphia 5, San Diego 3 - Roy Halladay took center stage, going eight innings and allowing three runs en route to his 12th win.
Boston 12, Seattle 8 - Tim Wakefield threw his 2,000th strikeout and obtained is 199th win, as Seattle made a new franchise record with their 15th straight loss.
Pittsburgh 4, St. Louis 3 - It was Chase d'Arnaud's walk-off sacrifice fly that closed the game for the Pirates in the 10th to help keep the NL Central knotted up.
Tampa Bay 5, Kansas City 0 - Rays rookie Alex Cobb went seven scoreless innings to record his third career victory as Ben Zobrist led the charge with 2 RBIs.
Chi. Cubs 5, Houston 4 - Jeff Baker played hero for the Cubs, with a walk-off RBI single in the 10th after the Cubs tied it in the eighth.  It was the first series sweep for the Cubs all season.
San Francisco 2, Milwaukee 1 - Madison Bumgarner and Yovani Gallardo dueled for seven-plus innings, but it was Bumgarner who took the win after only allowing Ryan Braun's solo home run.
Arizona 7, Colorado 0 - Micah Owings went five shutout innings and Zach Duke covered the other four to give the D-Backs a two-man shutdown effort.
Detroit 5, Minnesota 2 - Rick Porcello notched his 10th win of the season with a solid six-inning, two-run start as Twins starter Francisco Liriano lasted less than 3 innings after allowing four runs, mostly on walks and wild pitches.
LA Dodgers 3, Washington 1 - Chad Billingsley let a run go in the first, but regained form after that, striking out ten and only allowing the one as he led the Dodgers to the win.
Cincinnati 4, Atlanta 3 - Dontrelle Willis had a solid start for the Reds, but Drew Stubbs turned out to be the game's hero with the walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth.
Toronto 3, Texas 0 - Brett Cecil pitched the complete game and notched his first career shutout, striking out seven and outdueling Alexi Ogando in the process.



Sunday, July 24, 2011

Sunday, July 24th - The case for Chris Osgood.

A great goaltender retires.


Chris Osgood announced his retirement last week, sparking another brief round of whether or not he's deserving of the Hall of Fame.  The consensus seems to be that he'll get in, just not on the first ballot.

Chris Osgood is loved in Detroit.  Playing one of the positions of greatest scrutiny in the city, he thrived under the pressure and had the guts to bounce back from some horrible moments (an overtime goal from center ice, in the playoffs, for example).  No matter what Chris Osgood got thrown at him, he always bounced back.

The preconception was that in the late '90s, it didn't take anything to backstop the Red Wings - you just sit in net, block a couple shots, and the super-talented team in front of you won games.  It was a no-win situation for the goalie, from a PR perspective - if you were playing well, it barely counted, because the team was so good; if you played bad, then you must have been really bad, since the team was so good.  There wasn't a lot of room to stand out above and beyond the team.

The misconception of Chris Osgood's skill was also the result of when he came into the picture.  Taking over as the primary netminder after Mike Vernon backstopped a Stanley Cup win (and won a Conn Smythe), Chris Osgood's success made it seem like it didn't matter who the goaltender was.  The team was stacked, he was just along for the ride.  It didn't help that the Red Wings pursued Dominik Hasek in 2001, resulting in Osgood's departure to the New York Islanders.  After Hasek retired, the Red Wings acquired Curtis Joseph.    Hasek returned in 2005, after the lockout, and the Red Wings re-acquired Osgood - but as a backup, further reinforcing the notion that he somehow wasn't quite "good enough."  When Hasek struggled in the '07-'08 playoffs, Osgood was put in net and did what he did best - played incredible clutch playoff hockey, backstopping the Wings to another Stanley Cup.

I thought the 2008-09 season was definitive for Osgood - it was one of his best years and he was absolutely lights out in the playoffs, often keeping the Red Wings in games that their sometimes lackluster performance would have otherwise let slip away.  The Wings lost the Stanley Cup that year in seven games to the Pittsburgh Penguins, but no one argues this - had they won, Chris Osgood would have a Conn Smythe trophy alongside his fourth Stanley Cup win.  But alas, they lost, and this is fact is forgotten by many.

But what's always impressed me most about Chris Osgood was simply how he got up from his knocks.  He accepted being a backup and worked hard to improve.  When Jimmy Howard took over after 2008-09, he accepted that and served as an important mentor to Howard - a role he'll continue to hold.  Chris Osgood stepped up when he had to and was one of the best goalies in Detroit's history.  I hope to see his number retired one day and I expect to see him accepted to the Hall of Fame, in time.

His stats back a Hall of Fame claim - it's only that he was shipped out and served time as a backup that creates the misconception that he is not worthy.

Regular season - 401 wins (10th all-time), 2.49 GAA, .905 SV%, 50 shutouts.
Postseason - 74 wins (8th all-time), 2.09 GAA, .916 SV%, 6 shutouts.

Around the MLB -


Chi. Cubs 5, Houston 1 - Randy Wells pitched six innings, allowing only one run, picking up his first win since April.
Oakland 4, NY Yankees 3 - Rich Harden's solid start and homers by Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui powered the A's to end their 11-game losing streak.
Cincinnati 11, Atlanta 2 - Allowing two runs in the second, Homer Bailey clamped down the rest of the way and the bullpen held tight to allow no more.
Minnesota 4, Detroit 1 - Bolstered by a magnificent start in his return, Scott Baker held the Tigers bats silent as the Twins peppered Brad Penny for four runs.
Philadelphia 8, San Diego 6 - Cameron Maybin had another solid day, with 3 RBIs, but it wasn't enough as the Phillies savaged Chad Qualls for five runs in the seventh to rally.
Baltimore 3, LA Angels 2 - Up 2-0 after the first, the Angels let the win slip away after Adam Jones pushed the Orioles with RBIs in the fourth and fifth that made the difference.
St. Louis 9, Pittsburgh 1 - After allowing a run in the second, Jaime Garcia went the rest of the way holding the Pirates tight, allowing no more until his exit in the eighth, when the bullpen finished the job.
Florida 8, NY Mets 5 - Both starters were solid for four innings until the scoring started in earnest in the sixth, when Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison blasted HRs for the Marlins.
Boston 3, Seattle 1 - All scoring came in the seventh, when Blake Beaven let three earned runs in, giving Josh Beckett the win in this pitchers' duel and sinking the Mariners again.
Kansas City 5, Tampa Bay 4 - Alex Gordon forced extra innings in the ninth, but rookie Eric Hosmer was the game's hero with a walk-off RBI double in the tenth.
Texas 5, Toronto 4 - Credit a blown save to Jon Rauch, who gave up two in the ninth, including Michael Young's walk-off RBI single.
Arizona 12, Colorado 3 - Justin Upton and Miguel Montero caught fire for a game, providing 11 RBIs for the Diamondbacks in their rout of the Rockies.
San Francisco 4, Milwaukee 2 - After Ryan Vogelsong's two-run, five-inning start, the Giants bullpen took charge, holding the Brewers to nil the rest of the way.
LA Dodgers 7, Washington 6 - Coming back after a 6-2 deficit in the middle of the 3rd, the Dodgers tied the game in the seventh and won it on Rafael Furcal's walk-off RBI double in the ninth.

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Saturday, July 23rd - The NL West Division Race Preview

Before I get into the NL West, I'll talk briefly on the Tigers/Twins game last night, which I got to watch most of.  The Tigers looked crisp - that lineup can lay out some damage and it's in no small part due to Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila.  Peralta was solid last night and has been through the series, even if he is being thrown some hittable pitches, as the Twins broadcasters pointed out (then again, they also called Max Scherzer "Matt" all game long). Miguel Cabrera looked off though - a lot of his swings were coming late, hence his fouls.  Not sure what to make of that, could be nothing.  The Twins looked decidedly mediocre.  Nothing else to say - they played like the club I think they are - a middle-of-the-division club that'll get hot sometimes, but realistically lacks the tools to win the division.

For you Twins fans, here's an end-of-season experiment for you - compare Mauer's end-of-season batting stats when he plays 1B vs. when he plays catcher.  Just a thought.

The Twins front office really needs to wake up and start selling.  They have the core to be competitive and win next year; they could bolster that significantly by trading some expiring contracts for prospects or help.  Imagine if the Twins picked up James Shields, for example, although I imagine the Rays want prospects, or at least a contract that has more than two months on it.  But there's no reason they should waste this season by trying to compete in a race they can't win - they need to isolate the areas they need help (an ace pitcher, relief pitching) and make trades this season to acquire them.  They're not winning the division this year, but with some savvy moves, they could again next year.

The NL West - Where the defending champs reign.


(Standings as of July 23rd)

San Francisco - 57-43
Arizona - 53-47 (4 GB)
Colorado 48-52 (9 GB)
San Diego 44-56 (13 GB)
Los Angeles 43-56 (13.5 GB)

In all honesty, a two-team race, with San Francisco appearing to have a significant edge.  Both the NL and AL West always strike me as the least exciting divisions - both tend to wrap up early, and the AL West is a four-team division anyway (and why is that, with a six-team division in the NL Central?  Couldn't Houston get moved to the AL West?  Or the NL West, then move Colorado to the AL or something).  Anyway - this is San Francisco's and Arizona's race.  Colorado is up-and-down this year and really not threatening anyone.  With rampant speculation that Ubaldo Jimenez is on the market, the Rockies appear to be sellers, indicating they know better than to challenge the Giants this year (Twins, learn a lesson here).

The Dodgers and Padres have both been in the heaviest trade rumors I've heard so far.  There's strong belief to think that Hiroki Kuroda is available, his 3.19 ERA making him as solid a starter as any on the market this season.  Kuroda would have to waive his no-trade clause, though.  I've heard Andre Ethier's name come up, too, but I'd be surprised if he goes anywhere.  If he is available, though, the Dodgers could command a high price for both players and end up with a good haul - it might be worthwhile.  The Padres appear to be trying to move Heath Bell, their stud closer, who has 28 saves and a 2.45 ERA.  Aaron Harang's name has also come up lately, he of an 8-2 record and 3.29 ERA - like Kuroda, perhaps even moreso, he'd be a welcome addition to any contender's rotation.  The Padres are in full sell mode, it would seem - trade rumors have swirled around set-up man Mike Adams and outfielder Ryan Ludwick, also.  They'll hold out for good deals, though, and could easily rake in a good haul of prospects at the deadline.

As for the Rockies, as mentioned above, Jimenez is the only player many trade rumors are swirling around.  Nine games back, they seem to be ready to sell.  They've had a down year and it's in no small part because Jimenez has struggled mightily through it.  His 6-8 record and 4.00 ERA are not indicative of the pitcher who has been nothing short of stunning in recent years.  Without Jimenez anchoring the rotation, the Rockies have fallen on hard times, but if they can get a solid package for Jimenez, given their strong batting order, they could end up in decent shape next year.

So let's talk Diamondbacks.  Kirk Gibson's team looks solid - they're searching for a fifth starter, but their top four at the moment all have ERAs under 4.00, with Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson topping 10 wins and 100 strikeouts.  Their batting order is mediocre - Justin Upton leads with a .289 and second baseman Kelly Johnson brings up the rear with a .218.  Number that can get it done with a pitching staff that holds a sub-4.00 ERA.  But I don't think it's enough to challenge the Giants this year.  I like the Diamondbacks squad, but they're a year or two off.  With their name virtually absent from any trade discussions, it makes me think they're going to stand pat, continue to develop as a team and work on their young guys, and try to position themselves for a stronger 2012 run.  If they win this division, I don't think it'll be because they go on a tear - it'll be because the Giants fall off.

The San Francisco Giants are the defending champs and are playing like it, holding a 4-game lead in the division, one that isn't likely to be relented.  They have a smattering of minor injuries plaguing them right now, leading to many position players getting extra off days to heal up or going on short stints on the DL - Miguel Tejada for an abdominal strain, Aubrey Huff with back tightness, Pablo Sandoval with sore quads and so on. A four-game lead gives them the opportunity to rest these guys as necessary and not push too hard on the injured.  It also helps that all of their position players who have seen action in 20+ games this year are batting over .200, with all of their more regular players (50+ games) batting over .230.  It should be noted that no member of the Giants team has hit more than 9 home runs yet this year, which means that like most contenders, their strength is their pitching.  Starter Jonathan Sanchez is their only injury on the pitching staff at the moment, expected to be back off the 15-day DL by the end of the month.  His is the highest ERA of the five starters - at 3.81.  Ryan Vogelsong has the best of them, with a 2.02.  Barry Zito, who has been making starts for the Giants as well, has the highest ERA on the team, at 4.78 - of their active pitchers, only he has an ERA over 4.00.  That kind of pitching staff is staggeringly good and the reason the Giants can win without smashing the ball all over.  Much like the Diamondbacks, I don't hear the Giants mentioned in many trade rumors - they're certainly not selling and seem happy with the team they have, although their clear lack is that of a big bat, so they're sometimes mentioned alongside Carlos Beltran.  This team will be in the playoffs again this year, defending their World Series title and repeating as NL West champs.

Around the MLB -


Chi. Cubs 4, Houston 2 - All it took was the fifth inning for the Cubs to notch the four runs they needed to win, backing up a Big Z's nerve-wracking, but otherwise solid, start (he loaded the bases twice with no outs).
LA Angels 6, Baltimore 1 - Ervin Santana took a no-hitter five innings and went almost-eight with only one earned run.  Vernon Wells' grand slam in the ninth sealed the game.
Chi. White Sox 3, Cleveland 0 - Carlos Quentin's three-run HR backed almost-eight fantastic shutout innings by Gavin Floyd to take the first of a crucial AL Central series.
NY Yankees 17, Oakland 7 - The Yankees only scored in four innings, but they scored seventeen times, savaging Trevor Cahill and select members of the A's bullpen.  Phil Hughes allowed all seven A's runs for the Yankees.
Philadelphia 3, San Diego 1 - Cole Hamels struck out ten and went eight innings of one-run ball on the way to his 12th victory.
St. Louis 6, Pittsburgh 4 - Chris Carpenter pitched eight innings, allowing four runs, while the Cards bats backed him up with three home runs that accounted for the five runs needed to win.
Atlanta 6, Cincinnati 4 - Dan Uggla's pinch-hit home-run in the top of the ninth ended up being the tie-breaking shot that decided the game.
NY Mets 7, Florida 6 - David Wright returned to the Mets, picking up two doubles and two RBIs and also scored what would end up the winning run in the eighth.
Boston 7, Seattle 4 - Felix Hernandez pitched well until he met with struggles in the seventh, when the Red Sox took control of the game to bolster John Lackey's seven-inning start to the win.
Texas 12, Toronto 2 - Nelson Cruz had a career night, netting 8 RBIs, while Colby Lewis held the Jays hitless for six innings as the Rangers led a decisive rout.
Detroit 8, Minnesota 2 - Jhonny Peralta continued his dominance in this series, notching 4 RBIs in this game (and 3 last night, for 7 so far on the series), hitting a triple shy of the cycle for the second straight night, to back up Max Scherzer's seven-inning, one-run start.
Kansas City 10, Tampa Bay 4 - The Royals bats came alive, tearing up Wade Davis and the Rays bullpen en route to the win after Tampa forced Luke Hochevar's exit with a 3-run sixth.
Colorado 8, Arizona 4 - The Rockies bats put up 10 hits and five runs against Daniel Hudson, giving him his first loss since May and securing Aaron Cook his first win of the season.
Washington 7, LA Dodgers 2 - Hiroki Kuroda saw another quality start turn into a loss as the Dodgers' bats let him down and the Nationals ravaged their bullpen for a four-run ninth.
Milwaukee 4, San Francisco 2 - Shaun Marcum outdueled Matt Cain after a 3-run second inning gave him some leeway after allowing a run in the first.

Friday, July 22, 2011

Friday, July 22nd - The NL Central Division Race Preview

Well, with no news other than "still in limbo" on the NFL lockout, we return to our division previews.  I'll wrap them up tomorrow, even if the NFL solves itself, and speak on that Sunday if necessary (fitting, right, talking football on Sunday?).

The NL Central - The only four-horse race in baseball.


(Standings as of July 22nd)

Pittsburgh - 51-45
Milwaukee - 53-47
St. Louis - 51-47
Cincinnati - 48-50
Chicago - 39-60
Houston - 33-65

The NL Central is going to provide the most entertaining race the rest of the way.  For starters, being the odd six-team division in the league, it's got a little more going on than the rest - as a result, it also has four teams positioned as viable contenders.

I'll touch briefly on the Cubs and Astros, the two teams out of the race.  The Astros are the worst team in baseball and unlikely to move much at the deadline to improve.  They don't have a lot of pieces to sell, although there's been rumors that they could offer starting pitcher Brett Myers, although his stats and his contract might suck some of the value out of him.  The Cubs have a lot more potential selling pieces - widespread speculation has surrounded Aramis Ramirez, but his no-trade clause could nix that.  Carlos Pena is another potential trade piece, and I've recently read that Carlos Zambrano might be available, but he also has a no-trade clause.  I expect Pena to move - he's a free agent after this season and would be one of the better bats on the market, it seems unlikely and unwise for the Cubs not to ship him.

Now, the contenders.

The Reds were the feel-good story of last year's NL Central, with MVP Joey Votto leading them to a surprise playoff berth.  Votto continues to impress this year, but the Reds are facing surprisingly stiffer competition, not just from the Cards and Brewers, as to be expected, but from the Pirates.  The Reds are still a solid team and I actually like them to make a late-season surge more than the Cardinals.  Johnny Cueto is the revelation of their pitching staff, improving from his 12-7, 3.64 ERA, season last year to a 6-3 record and 1.98 ERA so far this year.  Unfortunately, the rest of the starters for the Reds all have ERAs over 4.00 - Mike Leake sits at 4.11, and the other three are actually above 5.00.  This is the reason for their 4-game deficit from the top.  The pitching has to improve if the Reds are going to challenge; if it doesn't, they'll continue to slide.  I think they'll finish third in the division ahead of the Cardinals, when all is said and done (and by a slim margin), but unless that starting pitching shapes up fast, it won't be better than that.  Rumor has the Reds in the market for Ubaldo Jimenez, if the Rockies trade him, and I believe it.  He'd be a big help immediately.  If the Reds are going to contend this year, a trade for a starting pitcher to bolster that rotation is imperative.

The Cardinals were the favorite to win the division early, until staff ace Adam Wainwright was lost for the season in spring training.  A mid-summer injury to stud hitter Albert Pujols further complicated matters, but to their credit, the Cardinals are hanging on and finding help where they need it.  With five guys hitting above .300 and their everyday lineup all above .240, they're finding bats when they need them.  Lance Berkman and Pujols both have 20+ homers on the year.  Their pitching staff presents a problem, though - they're surviving without Wainwright, but it's clear that his presence is missed.  Jaime Garcia has the best ERA of their starters, at 3.11.  The rest of the staff ranges from 3.45 to 5.04.  This is a manageable situation if you have a staff ace like Wainwright, but the Cards don't this year and it's why they're one game behind, with that gap likely to grow as the division race wears on.  On the plus side, they're in good health as a team right now and if they can stay that way, it might make up the difference.  I feel like the Cards' fate is out of their hands - they have a shot to win the division if they play good and steady, but I fear their starting pitching isn't good enough to sneak past all three teams ahead of them; those teams would have to collapse to some degree to give the Cards the opportunity they need.  I don't expect the Cardinals to be trade-deadline sellers; I think they'll continue to push.  Rumors have swirled around outfielder Colby Rasmus, but unless they can get a difference-making pitcher for him, it seems unlikely.

When Wainwright went down, I got a feeling that the opinion was the Brewers would run away with the division.  They're a team built to win right now and wanting to, especially with Prince Fielder potentially leaving soon as a free agent.  If they can't hold onto the slugger once he hits the market, then their best chance to win is before that happens.  The Brewers have the most fearsome lineup in the division, in my opinion - Fielder has 22 homers, with Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun right behind him with 19 and 18, respectively.  The weakest links in their lineup are infielder Casey McGehee (.226) and Carlos Gomez (.220).  But Gomez is out indefinitely with a fracture, opening his lineup spot for one of the other outfielders - all of whom are hitting better than .220.  The Brewers' pitching staff lacks a strong single ace; the man who was supposed to fill that role sits with the worst ERA of their starters (4.74) - Zack Greinke.  The rest of the staff sits with ERAs in the 3.00s and low 4.00 range.  If the Brewers can assemble a package, I could see them bringing in another starter, but it's hard to see where they might assemble that.  I'm not hearing their name in many trade rumors, making me think they'll stand pat.  In truth, the biggest problem the Brewers face is their abysmal record on the road - as of today, they're 20-33 on the road, a .377 winning percentage.  Looking at their home record - 33-14, .702, the best in baseball, if they could pull their road record to .500 or close to it (say, .425), they should win the division and I think they will - although not without the Pirates, of all teams, giving them a serious run for it.

And so we come to those Pirates, the surprise, feel-good story of the year.  The Pirates are winning in the simplest of ways - by playing good fundamentals.  Like many surprise teams, they're doing what I've always said is key to winning - playing good fundamentals.  Strip away the flash and flair and play good, fundamental ball and I think any club in any sport will make .500.  Do it all season long and you might do better, although that comes down to your competition, too (you generally need to do better than that to beat the Yankees and Phillies, for example).  But in the NL Central, it might be enough.  The Pirates batting lineup is nothing special - the everyday lineup ranges from a high average of .280 (which belongs to the face of this team, Andrew McCutcheon) to .230.  Only McCutcheon has more than 10 home runs (14).  Like most teams that lack flash and play good fundamentals, they're winning with small-ball.  Their pitching lineup has been reliable, supporting this type of play - Jeff Karstens leads their ERA with a 2.28, and Kevin Correia leads in wins, with 11.  Correia, ironically, sports the second-highest ERA of the starters, a 4.04.  The highest is a 4.15 and the other two are in the 3.00 range.  Not bad.  Of their primary relief staff (40+ innings pitched), the highest ERA is a 3.30.  These are good numbers.  Many pundits, when a team plays good fundamentals early, expects it to wear off.  The Pirates continue to do so.  If they keep doing it, the division is in their grasp - but with Milwaukee on their heels, the Pirates have to be aware that all it'll take is one slip.  The team ERA and the resultant runs-allowed number (360) makes them hard to beat and is indicative of the kind of solid fundamentals on display this season at PNC Park.  If the Pirates look to buy at the deadline, it'll be for a big bat, to add some pop to the lineup, but I doubt their ability to put together a tempting enough package for one - at least, not without jeopardizing the future that could be built on this year.

I like the Pirates, and my heart is pulling for them, because in the big-money, haves-and-have-nots sport of baseball, we love our Cinderella teams, but I think the Brewers will find a way to edge them out at the end of the season - but one thing is for sure: this could make for the best stretch race of the year.

Around the MLB - 


San Diego 5, Florida 3 - Former Tiger prospect Cameron Maybin had a career day, going 4/5, scoring twice, stealing two bases, knocking in a run, and impressing with his glove to secure a sweep for the Padres.
St. Louis 6, NY Mets 2 - Jake Westbrook pitched eight magnificent innings of two-run ball after getting some offensive support from Albert Pujols right away in the first inning.
Toronto 7, Seattle 5 - Ricky Romero held on into the eighth for the Blue Jays, when the Jays' bats nullified the Mariners attempted eighth-inning comeback, when they tied the game at 5.
Atlanta 9, Colorado 6 - After dropping four runs in the first two innings, Tommy Hanson buckled down and the Braves surged in the third, fifth and seventh innings to split the series.
LA Angels 1, Texas 0 - Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson's epic pitchers' duel was decided by an unearned run in the second.  Wilson pitched the complete game loss, giving up two hits and striking out eight.  Weaver exited after seven, with seven hits allowed and six strikeouts.
Tampa Bay 2, NY Yankees 1 - James Shields won his rematch with C.C. Sabathia as the two dueled again.  Sabathia pitched the complete game loss, while Shields exited in the eighth allowing only one run.
Detroit 6, Minnesota 2 - Justin Verlander rolled to his 13th win, going eight innings and allowing one run, while striking out nine.  The Tigers have won ten straight against the Twins dating back to last September.
Arizona 4, Milwaukee 0 - Ian Kennedy was on a tear last night, going seven shutout innings and giving up only four hits.  Justin Upton, Miguel Montero and Kelly Johnson all homered to backup their All-Star pitcher.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Thursday, July 21st - The inevitable decision around Brandon Inge.

I'm taking a break from the division previews today in light of some news I want to discuss.  With luck, the same will happen tomorrow if the NFL lockout is lifted.  I intend to finish the division previews over the weekend, however, and if the NFL lockout is indeed lifted, begin some early NFL coverage next week mingled in with trade deadline deals in baseball.

The fall of Brandon Inge.

One of the things that I am most fond of in sports, across all leagues, is when a guy is a career player for one team.  Often times, these are our stars - Barry Sanders, Joe Sakic, Derek Jeter, and so on.  They're guys that the front office can't afford to let go, because of their skill and because of the public outcry that would follow.  That's how the Twins got hamstrung into giving Joe Mauer the richest contract ever for a catcher.  Sports are, after all, a business.  But that's why it warms my heart a little more when a lesser player spends a career there.  A guy like Kris Draper or Jeff Backus.  Or Brandon Inge.

Brandon Inge has been a drain on the Tigers this season.  But he's also the longest-tenured Tiger and has played his career in Detroit - more than that, he doesn't want to go anywhere else.  In light of that, when the Tigers traded a couple Single-A prospects for Royals third basemen Wilson Betemit, and told Brandon Inge he would be waived, a strange thing happened.  Inge and his agent spoke and Inge reiterated his desire to remain a Tiger.  The organization, also, is fond of him, with owner Mike Illitch even stating his desire that Inge remain with them.  So the Tigers offered Inge a minor-league assignment.  Inge accepted it.

It's very rare to see a starting player take a minor-league assignment, rather than be waived or traded.  On one hand, Inge is a 34-year old third baseman with a career batting average around .234 and this year .177.  His struggles are well known this year and the Tigers gave him ample time to figure it out - which he was unable to do.  He was the gaping hole in the Tigers' lineup that a division contender cannot afford to have.

To his credit, Brandon Inge understands this.  He gets the business side of things and, as the Detroit media is reporting, in his own words, if he were GM, he says he'd have done the same thing.  But Inge wants to be a Tiger, loves being a Tiger.  And so he goes to Toledo, to play in the minors.  And Inge himself says that he'll earn his job and he'll be back.

Brandon Inge is, at the moment, the most polarizing athlete in Detroit.  We always have one or two guys that fans are split on, that produce a love-hate relationship among the fanbase.  Matthew Stafford's shoulder is a close second, but most of us like the kid and think he'll be just dandy if he can stay healthy (I think he'll be elite if he can stay healthy).  And the Red Wings are a pretty solid team, with a goaltender we are comfortable relying on, and there seems to be a certain level of apathy towards the Pistons, who are a mess anyway.  So with no one really stoking the fires, it's just Inge that fans are split on.  He gives us reasons to love him - his determination and grit, his working man's attitude, his defensive glove, his occasional spurts of exceptional power at the plate.  And he gives us reasons to hate him - strikes out too much, tries too hard and makes errors, low batting average.  I'm a Brandon Inge fan.  I think he fits the Detroit mold well.  Athletes who come in with that working man's "I'll earn this job" attitude always tend to win me over.  I can always root for them, as I root for Brandon Inge to figure things out and return.  Another athlete like that is Kyle Orton, who I think is a fairly talented NFL quarterback who never expects more than he earns.  We need more of those guys.

Brandon Inge doesn't need the fanbase to dump on him.  He knows the situation and he's been very gracious and accepting of the decisions made.  I doubt anything a fan says is any worse than Inge has already thought himself, besides.  He isn't clinging to his starting job - or even a bench role - on the Tigers.  He's taking his demotion in stride, pledging to figure himself out and return as good as before, all the while staying with the team he loves.  Isn't that what sports is about?  Isn't that what the best sports stories are about?  Isn't this a guy that, love or hate, we should all be rooting for?

Around the MLB - 


Boston 4, Baltimore 0 - Andrew Miller made a dominating start for almost-six innings as Jacoby Ellsbury's two solo shots helped power the Sox.
Cincinnati 3, Pittsburgh 1 - Johnny Cueto's six innings of one-run ball was better than Jeff Karstens offered in this pitchers' duel.
Minnesota 7, Cleveland 5 - Danny Valencia was Mr. Clutch again, with the go-ahead RBIs in the eighth to help the Twins split the series after losing the first two.
Houston 3, Washington 2 - In extra innings, Jason Michaels hit the walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the eleventh to give the Astros the series win.
Philadelphia 9, Chi. Cubs 1 - Vance Worley continues to be spectacular, throwing eight innings of one-run, four-hit ball, taking his record to 6-1 and his ERA to 2.02.
LA Dodgers 1, San Francisco 0 - Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum participated in this duel, but it was Kershaw's eight shutout innings that dropped the Giants after Lincecum gave up a solo home run.
Oakland 7, Detroit 5 - After a solid first-career start for Tigers rookie Duane Below, the bullpen gave up four runs to let the game slip away.
Toronto 11, Seattle 6 - Brandon Morrow pitched a strong start and every Jays hitter got on base as they routed the Mariners.
NY Yankees 4, Tampa Bay 0 - Freddy Garcia's almost-seven inning shutout start was enough for the Yankees' bullpen to hold as Curtis Granderson provided firepower with a first-inning home run.
San Diego 14, Florida 3 - Ricky Nolasco had a forgettable night for the Marlins, as the Padres recorded 9 hits and 9 runs on him over less than two full innings.
NY Mets 6, St. Louis 5 - It took until the tenth inning for the Mets, when Angel Pagan hit his first career walk-off home run after they had tied it in the eighth.
Kansas City 2, Chi. White Sox 1 - Bruce Chen and John Danks dueled it out in this game, which went into extra innings, until a wild pitch by Sergio Santos brought home the winning run.
Colorado 3, Atlanta 2 - Tied in the bottom of the ninth, Carlos Gonzalez laced the walk-off RBI single to lift the Rockies, who hadn't scored since the first.
Milwaukee 5, Arizona 2 - Up 2-0 in the eighth, then tied 2-2 in the tenth, the Brewers bats came out to reclaim the lead for good, putting up 3 runs in the top of the tenth.
LA Angels 9, Texas 8 - Down by five runs, the Angels roared to life in the sixth, savaging Derek Holland for four runs and his replacement for two, securing a lead they held the rest of the game.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Wednesday, July 20th - The NL East Division Race Preview.

The NL East - Stacked from top to bottom.


(Standings as of July 20th)

Philadelphia - 60-36
Atlanta 57-40 (3.5 GB)
New York - 48-48 (12 GB)
Washington - 48-49 (12.5 GB)
Florida - 47-50 (13.5 GB)

Welcome to the most competitive division in baseball.  The AL East has nothing - NOTHING - on this division, where it's weakest member is three games below .500 and would be a division race contender in the AL and NL Central divisions.  It's almost kind of sad - all five clubs are objectively good teams, but realistically, this is Philadelphia's and Atlanta's race.

We'll start by looking at the three bottom teams in this division.  It's safe to say that none will be pushing for the division pennant, unless a minor miracle happens.  And, as you may have guessed, that puts all three teams in place to be sellers as the trade deadline nears.  The Marlins, at the bottom, really don't have much to sell off other than some relief pitching, though - and this is going to be a market stacked with relief pitchers, so they may stand pat.  The Nationals, as well, are a young up-and-coming team and unlikely to sell off any parts.  The Mets are in the most interesting position of most teams in baseball, in terms of selling - they have multiple names they could potentially put out there, including starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey, outfielder Carlos Beltran, third-baseman David Wright and shortstop Jose Reyes.  Beltran appears the most likely to move, with an expiring contract and the potential to be the best bat in the market.  Reyes would be a true free agent prize, but rumor from ESPN and SI is that he won't accept a trade without a contract and his price will be quite high - he's also extremely popular as a Met, so they may want to keep him as the franchise's face.  Wright's name continues to be mentioned, as a bat and an infield boost for teams in need of that, but his injury and the Mets not saying much on that front leaves me thinking he'll also be staying.  But Beltran is more than likely on the move, soon.

So, onto the contenders.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the consensus pick to win it all since the season started and they've not disappointed in that.  They are the best team in baseball.  They've stayed relatively healthy, with their only serious injuries at the moment being to Brad Lidge, who is rehabbing a rotator cuff, and Roy Oswalt's bulging discs.  Their batting lineup won't wow you - their batting leaders are All-Star Shane Victorino (.299) and Placido Polanco (.274).  But all of their position players are hitting over .225, leaving no glaring holes in their lineup, either.  No, the strength of the Phillies is in their pitching - their starting rotation is simply the best in baseball and, better yet, they have six viable starters when healthy.  Oswalt's injury gave way to more innings for Vance Worley - who has stepped up to the spotlight with a 5-1 record and a 2.15 ERA, the best among the team's starters.  Oswalt has the highest ERA among the starters, with 3.79.  Only Kyle Kendrick joins Oswalt as a starter with an ERA over 3.00.  This pitching staff is as good as advertised - better, actually, because of the rise of a rookie like Worley.  The Phillies can play small-ball off the bats because you aren't going to score much on them.  Despite their abundance of starting pitching and the lack of it on the trade market, don't expect them to trade away any pieces - with Oswalt's health in question, they'll hold onto what they have.  I'll be surprised if they make any moves at the trade deadline.

So what do the Braves have to do to catch up to their rival?  To start, get Chipper Jones and Jason Heyward back in the lineup and off the DL.  Like the Phillies and many other contenders, the Braves have all their position players hitting over .225, roughly.  Three of their everyday starters are hitting above .275, with Brian McCann leading the way with a .313 average.  The Braves have three solid starters in Jair Jurrjens (12-3, 2.26 ERA), Tommy Hanson (10-5, 2.73 ERA) and Tim Hudson (9-6, 3.44 ERA).  Derek Lowe and Brandon Beachy round out a respectable rotation.  Of further note is the stalwart Braves bullpen - with their primary relievers all pitching sub-4.00 ERA baseball.  This is a team built to contend with the Phillies, as they offer much of the same - solid pitching and respectable hitting.  The Braves offer the slightly better batting order, while the Phillies offer the slightly better pitching lineup.  Much like the Phillies, the Braves aren't likely to be wheelin' and dealin' at the trade deadline - their team doesn't have any gaping holes that have to be filled to continue to push the race.

So - who wins?  I say the Phillies, because I take pitching over hitting.  But it's going to come down to two things - health and head-to-head series.  So if you're a true baseball fan, mark your calendar for when these two teams play each other, because those games will make or break the division for them (although, let's be honest, the loser's consolation prize will be the NL Wild Card, anyway).

Around the MLB -


Baltimore 6, Boston 2 - Jeremy Guthrie's strong seven innings held the Red Sox, while the Orioles took advantage of Kyle Weiland in his first start, docking him for three runs before adding three more on the bullpen.
Pittsburgh 1, Cincinnati 0 - James McDonald dominated the Reds for almost-seven innings, while the Pirates bullpen took care of the rest.
Detroit 8, Oakland 3 - Carlos Guillen hit his first HR in the year as the Tigers steamrolled the A's to give Rick Porcello his 9th win.
Toronto 6, Seattle 5 - A walk-off sacrifice fly by John McDonald scored Rajai Davis in the 14th and handed the Mariners their tenth straight loss.
Tampa Bay 3, NY Yankees 2 - A key fly ball got lost in the Trop's lights, resulting in a 2-run seventh inning that put the Rays on top for good.
San Diego 4, Florida 0 - Tim Stauffer keyed up a six-inning shutout start for the Padres, while the bullpen took care of the rest.
NY Mets 4, St. Louis 2 - Dillon Gee allowed 2 runs over seven innings, while the top of the order provided the baserunners the Mets scored.
Phillies 4, Chi. Cubs 2 - Matt Garza went seven shutout innings before the Cubs' bullpen collapsed, with Sean Marshall blowing the save and the win.
Houston 7, Washington 6 - Both teams dinged eleven hits, but it was Houston's bullpen that came up big in the eighth and ninth, holding the Nats off.
Kansas City 4, Chi. White Sox 2 - After two runs in the first, Royals' rookie Danny Duffy held them scoreless the rest of the way, letting the bullpen get the finish while the offense took care of the rest.
Minnesota 2, Cleveland 1 - Down 1-0 in the ninth, Danny Valencia laced a walk-off, two-RBI single to spoil Justin Masterson's dominant, almost-eight inning start.
Colorado 12, Atlanta 3 - Ubaldo Jimenez continues to find his old form, limiting the Braves to 2 runs over almost-seven innings.
Milwaukee 11, Arizona 3 - The Brewers crushed three home runs in a five-run first inning, providing all the firepower needed for Yovani Gallardo to pitch the victory.
Texas 7, LA Angels 0 - Alexi Ogando shutdown the Angels over eight innings, giving the Rangers their 11th straight win and putting more distance between them and the Angels.
San Francisco 5, LA Dodgers 3 - Madison Bumgarner allowed three in the third, but that was all the Dodgers got as the Giants cruised the rest of the way.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Tuesday, July 19th - The AL West Division Race Preview.

The AL West - Becoming clearer by the week.


(Standings as of July 19th)

Texas - 55-41
Los Angeles - 51-45 (4 GB)
Seattle - 43-52 (11.5 GB)
Oakland - 42-54 (13 GB)

I'm going to speak briefly on Oakland and Seattle before moving on to the obvious division frontrunners.

I don't know what to make of Oakland.  I haven't since... I want to say it was 2008 or 2009, when they were sitting fine around .500 at the All-Star Break, with a good little team developing, then had a mid-season fire sale and blew it up.  They haven't been the same since then and they still aren't competitive.  They'll look to sell at the trade deadline and may be able to get Josh Willingham dealt; the only other major trade bait they have are pitchers Trevor Cahill or Gio Gonzalez, neither of whom I assume will be moving.

As for Seattle, well, they've been a baseball dystopia for awhile now, ever since their $100-million, 100-loss season.  The Griffey episode last year only further reinforced how this mighty franchise has fallen.  However, I like what the Mariners have done lately - with Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda, they have a great 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, assuming they can hold onto both.  Justin Smoak appears to have been worth acquiring, also.  They're a young team, but I like the direction they're going in - but it'll take time and some luck to develop.  They don't have a lot of trade deadline options, but one to consider is offloading Eric Bedard.  In a market strained for starting pitching, when several teams will desire it, they have a shot to make a trade there which could be of great value.  I've heard rumors surrounding Brandon League, too, but in a market with lots of relievers available, I doubt they'll want to move him.

Both the Mariners and A's have pieces in place - solid young pitchers, some good position players.  But neither is particularly competitive in the long-term sense yet.  I like the Mariners more going forward, but as I hinted at above, the development of young players is always a matter of time, patience and luck - everyone predicted great things for him after Rick Porcello's stellar rookie year in Detroit, but he's struggled since, for example.

So, onto the contenders.

The Rangers are in a good place.  They're currently on an 11-game winning streak, much of which game in-division (sinking the Mariners and the A's).  The Rangers are doing what teams need to do to win divisions, and they're built for it - sustain success and win.  They aren't always pretty, but they can go win games.  The key to this is their solid starting rotation.  C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and Alexi Ogando all have pitched 100+ innings already and three of them (Wilson, Lewis, Harrison) are posting an ERA of 3.11 or below.  Only Lewis and Holland are above a 4.00 ERA - not bad.  While that might not always make for a lot of flash, it makes for a lot of wins.  The Rangers bats are adequate - Michael Young is hitting .321 and Josh Hamilton is at .294.  One key number is that among all of their position players - bench players included - no one is hitting below .233.  Only three men are hitting below .250.  That kind of depth leads to division titles.  It also pays off when a player like Julio Borbon goes out indefinitely - his ankle surgery may cause him to miss the rest of the season; while that does strain their OF corps, it also makes Endy Chavez and his .342 average (through 32 games) an everyday starter.  Provided no fluke injuries to any crucial players, pitchers in particular - and even then, it might not matter - if the Rangers keep playing the way they have, I think they lock up the division by September.  The Rangers are also in the fortunate place of not having any pressing needs as they go into the trade deadline.  They can upgrade their reliever corps, but it's not a burning necessity - which means that if they do deal, they'll make sure to get good value for it; and they are in the enviable position of having prospects and bench players to deal.

As for the Angels, they also are in relatively good health.  Relievers Fernando Rodney and Francisco Rodriguez are on the 15-day DL, but both are over 4.00 ERA and, at the very least, Rodney should be back soon.  Center-fielder Peter Bourjos is also injured with a hamstring issue, but likely to be back soon, too.  We can't start going further into the Angels, though, without saying Jered Weaver.  Just as the Tigers rely on Verlander, so do the Angels rely on Weaver, who has an impressive 1.90 ERA at this point in the year.  Beyond that, the Angels have Dan Haren's 10 wins and 2.75 ERA showing more reliability down the starting rotation.  Starters Ervin Santana and Tyler Chatwood also are posting ERAs below 4.00.  The Angels do not lack for pitching talent.  Rather, it's their bats that might be holding them back.  The Angels have only seven position players batting .250 or above and only nine batting over .225.  While those nine are their typical starters, it illustrates a lack of depth across the board that plays out when someone goes down with injury (like Bourjos).  With Texas unlikely to be slowed by any injuries because of their depth, the Angels might have to make a deal to get another bat or two to help capitalize on the quality starts they so frequently get from guys like Weaver and Haren.

While I think the Angels keep it interesting, I find it hard to think last year's American League champions won't hang onto the top spot the rest of the way.

Around the MLB -


Cleveland 5, Minnesota 2 - In his first start of 2011, David Huff held the Twins to nothing but five hits across seven stellar innings.
Cleveland 6, Minnesota 3 - In Game 2 of a sweltering doubleheader, Scott Diamond made his MLB debut for the Twins, allowing three runs in six innings and some change before the Indians beat on the Twins bullpen for more.
Boston 15, Baltimore 10 - The Baltimore bullpen let a 7-7 tie slip away in the eighth inning, when the Red Sox bats lit up for eight more.  Of note, despite 25 runs being scored in this game, only 4 HRs were hit.
Pittsburgh 2, Cincinnati 0 - After a pair of rain delays, the Pirates bullpen continued what Charlie Morton started, stifling the Reds and securing a shutout victory.
Florida 4, NY Mets 1 - The Marlins continue to roll, this time behind Clay Hensley's return and holds by relievers Michael Dunn and Edward Mujica.
NY Yankees 5, Tampa Bay 4 - Tied 4-4 in the ninth, it was a walked-in run in the top of the inning that ultimately sealed the game.
Chi. Cubs 6, Philadelphia 1 - Roy Halladay gave up three runs before leaving in the fifth, as the Cubs scored in four different innings to back Rodrigo Lopez's seven-inning start.
Washington 5, Houston 2 - After a 2-2 tie, the Nats entered the ninth and got the go-ahead RBI single they needed from Ryan Zimmerman, holding up Jason Marquis' impressive start.
Chi. White Sox 5, Kansas City 2 - Mark Buehrle's two-run ball over seven innings and a throwing error that led to runs put the White Sox over the top.
Atlanta 7, Colorado 4 - Derek Lowe's strong seven-inning start and steady bullpen secured the win as Freddie Freeman knocked in 3 RBIs and scored twice himself.
Arizona 3, Milwaukee 0 - Josh Collmenter dominated the Brewers for eight shutout innings, allowing only three hits.
San Francisco 5, LA Dodgers 0 - Ryan Vogelsong went seven scoreless for the Giants and dropped his ERA to 2.02 in the process as the Dodgers were stifled for only seven hits, with none off the bullpen in the final two frames.



Monday, July 18, 2011

Monday, July 18th - The AL East Division Race Preview

The AL East - Business as usual.


(Standings as of July 18th)

Boston - 57-36
NY Yankees - 55-37 (1.5 GB)
Tampa Bay - 50-43 (7 GB)
Toronto - 47-49 (11.5 GB)
Baltimore - 38-54 (18.5 GB)


The AL East is, as usual, a two horse race.

Although Toronto and Tampa Bay are good clubs with solid lineups and a good thing going, as they say, they have to survive in a division with the payrolls of the Yankees and Red Sox - while this occasionally is feasible and does indeed happen, it does not appear that will be the case this year.

As some may remember, Baltimore started the season 6-0 and Boston 0-6.  There was much panic at the time.  Funny, those six games.  Right now, Baltimore is one of the worst teams in baseball with no real odds of improving.  However, I don't expect them to go on a major selling spree, either.  Quite honestly, if we see any significant baseball news with the Orioles attributed to it, I'll be shocked.

Toronto, sitting 11.5 games back, also seems unlikely to be selling or buying this season.  Despite having an All-Star starter in Ricky Romero and the league's home run leader in Jose Bautista, I expect everyone to stay put.  They have some relievers they could potentially trade, if the price is right, but I think it's more likely that they'll sit back and let develop what they have.

Tampa, at 7 games back, has a viable shot to contend and will likely continue to be a thorn in the paw of the Red Sox and Yankees.  Realistically, this year, I don't see it happening, but I don't think they're going to be major trade deadline players, either.  Tampa is a small-market team with little revenue to throw around, so they rely on their farm system to provide.  Big trades aren't their style.  If they stay healthy and play solid baseball, they could position themselves to capitalize on any long-term blunders the Yankees or Red Sox make going forward.  Their fate, though, really lies with how they do against those teams the rest of the season.

The Yankees will make this an interesting race, but their major concern right now has to be injury.  Rafael Soriano is out still, Alex Rodriguez is out til August a least, Joba Chamberlain is gone for the season and they have a number of other injuries scattered among their bench and pitching corps.  But these are the Yankees.  While they don't have a starter hitting over .300, most of their lineup is hitting over .250.  Meanwhile, they have the best ace in the league right now in C.C. Sabathia, who is chasing another Cy Young Award with his 14-4 record and 2.64 ERA.  The other starters have ERAs ranging from 3.43 to 4.15.  Only Sabatha has double-digit wins and triple-digit innings.  The Yankees' biggest weakness is their starting pitching beyond Sabathia, but as I mentioned with the Tigers yesterday - having that solid, undisputed ace is a huge boon.  The success of the Yankees depends on their health as a team not degrading any further - but I think even so, they're destined for second.

Like the Yankees, the currently leading Red Sox are being dogged by injury, particularly to their pitching.  After Carl Crawford, out with a hamstring strain, they've also temporarily lost Jon Lester, Bobby Jenks, Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett for the moment, although Beckett and Lester are not expected to miss any time (as evidenced by Beckett's start last night).  The Red Sox have power and consistency all the way down their lineup - starting with Adrian Gonzalez, who leads the team with 77 RBIs and a .342 batting average.  Beyond that, almost all of their starters are above .250, with a couple guys batting under it, in the .240 range.  The Red Sox, arguably, have a solid two-man top to the rotation, with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.  Beckett is 8-3 with a 2.12 ERA, Lester 10-4 with a 3.31 ERA.  The only starter looking particularly unreliable is John Lackey and his 6.70 ERA.  The Red Sox could pursue pitching help at the trade deadline - but may be content to stand pat, and given the production of their lineup and the reliability of the majority of the pitching staff, I think either way, we're looking at the AL East champ, even if they did start out 0-6.  What I like about the Red Sox, though, is the grit they displayed last night, holding up and holding on to take a scoreless game 16 - SIXTEEN - innings and get the win.

Around the MLB -


Detroit 4, Chi. White Sox 3 - After allowing 3 runs in the second inning, Brad Penny locked down and kept the White Sox off the board.
NY Yankees 7, Toronto 2 - Phil Hughes returned to start for the Yankees and worked six innings of two-run ball to secure the win.
Philadelphia 8, NY Mets 5 - Kyle Kendrick piched six shutout innings for the Phils, only giving up a run in the seventh before the Phillies' bullpen almost let the game slip away.
Cincinnati 3, St. Louis 1 - The Reds rallied for a run in each of the sixth, seventh and eighth innings to take the series from the Cards.
Baltimore 8, Cleveland 3 - Mitch Atkins gave up three runs in the first, but the Orioles bullpen stymied the Tribe, holding them to no more and letting four Oriole home runs take care of the rest.
Atlanta 9, Washington 8 - Freddie Freeman hit the walk-off RBI single to give the Braves the series win.
Pittsburgh 7, Houston 5 - With the 4-4 tie carrying into extra innings, it was lead-off man Alex Presley's 3 RBIs, including the eventual game-winner, that sparked the Pirates to victory.
Minnesota 4, Kansas City 3 - Jim Thome's three-run HR in the sixth gave the Twins all the late-game run support they needed for the bullpen to hold on to the victory.
Florida 7, Chi. Cubs 5 - After the Cubs plated four in the first two innings, it was six innings of the Marlins bullpen holding tight, allowing only one additional run.
Milwaukee 4, Colorado 3 - The Brewers gut out another road victory, outlasting the Rockies, who came within one run of a comeback victory in the ninth.
Oakland 9, LA Angels 1 - Gio Gonzalez threw seven shutout innings, backed up by his team's bats - who scored eight of their nine runs in the first frame.
San Francisco 4, San Diego 3 - Matt Cain and Mat Latos left a 3-3 tie when they exited in the sixth and seventh (respectively), which went into the 11th inning - when a squeeze bunt gave the Giants the run they needed.
Arizona 4, LA Dodgers 1 - Daniel Hudson collected his tenth win on the year with a one-run, five-hit complete game suffocation of the Dodgers, as well as his first career home run.
Texas 3, Seattle 1 - Matt Harrison got run support in the form of a 3-run HR in the second, which helped the Rangers roll to their 11th straight win and the Mariners to their 9th straight loss.
Boston 1, Tampa Bay 0 - Last night's epic duel went fifteen scoreless innings, with starters Josh Beckett and Jeff Niemann pitching eight innings a-piece.  Dustin Pedrioa broke the tie with an RBI single on his seventh at-bat.