Saturday, October 30, 2010

Pierce's Picks - Week 8

I was 10-4 last week, which moves me up to 64-40 on the year so far.

Winners in gold as always.

Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
Miami (3-3) @ Cincinnati (2-4)
Jacksonville (3-4) @ Dallas (1-5)
Washington (4-3) @ Detroit (1-5)
Buffalo (0-6) @ Kansas City (4-2)
Carolina (1-5) @ St. Louis (3-4)
Green Bay (4-3) @ NY Jets (5-1)
Denver (2-5) @ San Francisco (1-6)

Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
Tennessee (5-2) @ San Diego (2-5)
Tampa Bay (4-2) @ Arizona (3-3)
Minnesota (2-4) @ New England (5-1)
Seattle (4-2) @ Oakland (3-4)

Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (5-1) @ New Orleans (4-3)

Monday Night -
Houston (4-2) @ Indianapolis (4-2)

Byes: Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, NY Giants, Philadelphia

A good slate of games this week. A few must-wins scattered about, though. I believe Detroit has to beat Washington this weekend to establish any kind of credibility going forward - I believe they can, but it might be difficult as the offense adjusts to having Matthew Stafford under center again. I believe Indianapolis has to beat Houston, much like Houston had to beat them in Week 1. If Indianapolis loses another division game, that'll sink their in-division record and really hurt them when the playoff race heats up. Minnesota and San Diego look to get wins, but both are playing superior teams and I see both falling to 2-6. Cincinnati is a train wreck (who woulda thunk it, with TO and Ochocinco there...) and has to face a resilient Miami team that was victimized by the worst call of the week last week. I like Dallas to beat Jacksonville this week. Jon Kitna or not, if they can't beat Jacksonville at home this week, who can they beat going forward?

Monday, October 25, 2010

The Penultimate Weekend of October...

Let's start with the NFL.

Minnesota Vikings fans should be going after the head of Brad Childress. I've said it since I started living here - "The Tiny General", as a friend of mine refers to him, is not a good coach. He is a systematic coach. As long as the system is working, he looks fine. But when the system cracks or breaks down, he looks like he's at a total loss. At least he was fiery enough after the game to call out Favre, who is playing like a senior citizen. But let's take a look at what I thought was a critical moment in that game, moreso than all three of Favre's picks - and don't get me wrong, I love to villainize Favre at this point in his prolonged career, but he did not break this game to me. But when Childress hung it up with 20 seconds left in the 2nd quarter and 2 timeouts, I thought he gave up the game. In the immortal words of Herm Edwards - "Helloooooo! You play to win the game!" Brad Childress did not play to win the game. You do not give up at the end of the 2nd quarter, not when you have a quarterback who, senior citizen or not, still has a cannon and can throw it up to Randy Moss or Percy Harvin. When you hang it up right there and then, it tells me that you're afraid. It says you don't trust your offense. It says you're not playing to win. It says you're in damage control. Watching Pardon the Interruption today, Michael Wilbon was after Childress and said that if he ran the Vikings, Childress is in his office today and he's telling him that if he ever gives up on a drive like that, he's fired. I can't agree more. What stuns me right now is that the rest of the national media is overlooking this and instead feeding the attention-monger that is Brett Favre. Who is, by the way, as washed up as I've ever thought he is. I can't believe he's happy to be back this season at this point. If the Vikings want to win, they need to bring in T-Jack now and see what he's got, because beyond Childress's inane play-calling, Favre is making too many mistakes at critical moments.

In other coaching news, someone needs to slap Mike Singletary with some reality. I want to like him. I want to see him succeed. He was a great player and I think he could be a good coach. But he's starting to remind me of Rod Marinelli in the 2008 Lions 0-16 campaign. Every week, the same mantra to the press and every week, the same sad result on the field. For him to declare, after losing to the Carolina Panthers, that the 49ers could still make the playoffs, is a statement so steeped in denial that it just blew me away. It might be mathematically true, but that's the case for the Browns, Lions and Panthers too - but their coaches know what they're working with. And while you never want to publicly give up, you still can't pretend things are something they're not. And if you keep losing and keep coming out and saying the same thing, it tells me that you're out of ideas, you're out of tools and you're probably out of a job at the end of the season. Like Marinelli, I think Singletary will make a great LB coach (as he was in San Francisco) or, hopefully, a great defensive coordinator. But I'm starting to think the entire scope of the game, as a head coach, is too much for him to handle. On that note, anyone else laughing about the NFL giving England a game between the 49ers and Broncos next week? Which team lucked out with losing that home game this year?

Great World Series coming up, folks. Giants/Rangers looks good to me. I hope the fans prove the MLB wrong and watch it. I think this is a better series than if the Phillies or Yankees made it - the Rangers look great and Cliff Lee is, hands down, the best playoff pitcher in the game right now. As for the Giants, I'm glad to see Tim Lincecum in the Series. I look forward to this matchup, which is likely to be a pitching gauntlet all the way through. That's baseball, folks. Just like good football is about defense, good baseball is about pitching. I look forward to this Series matchup and even if you're not a fan of either team, I think Cliff Lee is must-watch TV at this point. On that note, I'm predicting the Rangers in 6.

Meanwhile, in college football, another #1 fell and now Auburn has leapfrogged a few teams to get to the top spot. I have trouble seeing Auburn stay undefeated. As much as I want to see Michigan State up there, I likewise don't think they'll stay undefeated. I think the only team likely to stay on that path is Oregon, which looks like they're in another class entirely from everyone else. What makes this year interesting is that as a new titan falls every week, Boise State or TCU inch closer and closer to a BCS Championship berth, if only because there aren't enough undefeated teams left to keep them out. And good for that! Let's get one of them into the championship because then the argument ends - either they win and prove they belong, or they lose and that will hang over them for the rest of time, insofar as the BCS exists. I've got my fingers crossed that we see one of them in the BCS Championship... hoisting a trophy at the end.

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Pierce's Picks - Week 7

Last week was an outstanding 12-2!

That helps rebuild my season total to 54-36.

So let's get to this week's picks - winners in gold.

Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
Cincinnati (2-3) @ Atlanta (4-2)
Washington (3-3) @ Chicago (4-2)
Philadephia (4-2) @ Tennessee (4-2)
Jacksonville (3-3) @ Kansas City (3-2)
Pittsburgh (4-1) @ Miami (3-2)
Cleveland (1-5) @ New Orleans (4-2)
St. Louis (3-3) @ Tampa Bay (3-2)
San Francisco (1-5) @ Carolina (0-5)
Buffalo (0-5) @ Baltimore (4-2)

Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
Arizona (3-2) @ Seattle (3-2)
New England (4-1) @ San Diego (2-4)
Oakland (2-4) @ Denver (2-4)

Sunday Night -
Minnesota (2-3) @ Green Bay (3-3)

Monday Night -
NY Giants (4-2) @ Dallas (1-4)

Byes: Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, NY Jets

This is one of those weeks where it all looks pretty simple - lots of favored home teams who look like sure wins. I hate weeks like this because it means there's always a couple absurd upsets lurking. I like Dallas at home, in a must-win environment on Monday Night. I like Green Bay at home on Sunday Night. I think Denver has to beat Oakland, and should, but that game could go upset... Oakland plays some scrappy ball. St. Louis could beat the Bucs, too, but I think the Bucs are playing very solid fundamental football and that will win you games. I hear Jacksonville is starting Todd Bouman at QB, so if you need a lock this week, take Kansas City. Atlanta is back at home, so they'll win, no problem. Miami hasn't won at home yet this year (they're 0-2 at home, 3-0 on the road) and I think that trend continues against the indomitable-looking Steelers.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

The NFL's Big Hits Conundrum

I've waited a few days to update. I was going to on Monday, then on Tuesday, but decided to wait until today. I've been mulling over some thoughts as the NFL has come to the controversial decision to start suspending players who deliver big helmet-leading hits. Many players and former players are outraged. Some say it's about time. There are certainly plenty of opinions floating around about this.

I think that the bottom line about the rule change is this - how will the officials enforce it? Let's remember that it is in the rulebook that you are not supposed to lead with your helmet on a hit. However, this often goes unenforced. My biggest concern - and I think this is what most players are feeling - is how does this impact a defensive player's ability to make a play on the ball? After all, football is a game of impact and most impact is incidental. I dislike the idea of incidental conduct resulting in possible suspensions.

On that note, how funny is it that this is an issue now? The most horrific hit I've ever seen landed was in 2008, when Anquan Boldin was leveled by a NY Jets safety on a helmet-to-helmet hit. The safety was trying to make a play on the ball. So was Boldin. Both were airborne. Boldin went up to catch it; the safety launched himself to get in front of Boldin and perhaps knock down the ball. Boldin, upon making the catch, was drilled from behind by another Jets player - the impact of that hit pushed him into the trajectory of the airborne safety, resulting in a the safety's helmet coming up on the underside of Boldin's jaw, breaking it. This was not his intent. He would have been fine had Boldin not been pushed into his trajectory from another hit. While a horrific impact without a doubt, it was an unintentional play with no intended malice. The player - a second string safety, as I recall - was fined $15,000, a significant amount for a backup. I felt this was undeserved.

So anyway, how come that hit didn't trigger this discussion? Kurt Warner, after that game, openly contemplated retiring then and there, he was so effected by what he saw. Where was the outcry then? The NFL has been profiting on these hits for years. The NFL has encouraged these hits for years. Why the sudden change? I don't think this week was so much worse than any other - yes, the Dunta Robinson hit on DeSean Jackson was brutal (but also incidental, it seemed to me), as were the others, but let's be realistic... they happen every week. So why now? A friend of mine and I were discussing today that hey, it seems convenient that this concern with player health happens to coincide with the push for an 18-game season. Seems very convenient... after all, 18 games will be easier to play with tougher rules on impact, right? Funny, that...

Which brings me to my next point. The NFL has proven one thing to me to this point - it's all about the money. I have no doubt in my mind at this moment that the NFL has virtually no concern for player safety and health, regardless of what they say. The NFL is pushing more games - increased risk. The NFL has been encouraging "big hits" for years. In fact, just today, the NFL was selling pictures of the Brandon Meriweather hit on Todd Heap and of the James Harrison hit on Mohammed Massaquoi on NFL.com. For anywhere from $15-$200 each. Of course, the league apologized profusely once this was noticed by the national media. But let's get real. The NFL is in it for money. End of story. And now that there's enough noise about concussions, I think they're only enforcing their rules to aid their own agenda - the increased revenue of an 18-game season. Mark my words here and now that if these rules do reduce concussion risks, which they ought to, they will use that as fodder to promote the 18-game season and use it as an argument regarding their concern for player health and how the game is now safer for more games.

And remember that the NFL could have changed this anytime with far less hoopla - by simply coming down on the officials to call more helmet-leading hit penalties. But the NFL didn't enforce that, because it was profitable. The true culture of the NFL isn't about the way the rules are written, but how they are enforced on the field by the officials. And really, that's the ultimate question about this - how will the officials enforce these rules now? There is, believe it or not, a chance that this ends up being the biggest non-story of the year, for that reason.

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Pierce's Picks - Week 6

Ouuuuuuuuuuuch. 7-7 again last week. What a brutally unpredictable season it's been so far this year!

That puts me at 42-34 so far. That's drawing closer and closer to .500...

So here we go, winners in gold as always.

Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
Seattle (2-2) @ Chicago (4-1)
Baltimore (4-1) @ New England (3-1)
Detroit (1-4) @ NY Giants (3-2)
Atlanta (4-1) @ Philadelphia (3-2)
Cleveland (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-1)
Miami (2-2) @ Green Bay (3-2)
San Diego (2-3) @ St. Louis (2-3)
New Orleans (3-2) @ Tampa Bay (3-1)
Kansas City (3-1) @ Houston (3-2)

Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
Oakland (2-3) @ San Francisco (0-5)
NY Jets (4-1) @ Denver (2-3)
Dallas (1-3) @ Minnesota (1-3)

Sunday Night -
Indianapolis (3-2) @ Washington (3-2)

Monday Night -
Tennessee (3-2) @ Jacksonville (3-2)

I almost picked Minnesota over Dallas. Then a friend of mine reminded me of how the Vikings shamelessly ran up the score on Dallas in the playoffs last year... I see this game as serious retribution for the Cowboys and I see them winning it. As in life, as in sports - karma is a bitch. I want to believe in Denver at home, but I can't... I think Denver is a good team and Kyle Orton is playing out of his mind, but the Jets just look solid. I think the Patriots come off their bye without Moss and hit a win... Brady is no stranger to winning without a highlight receiver, but then again, those were in the glory days of the New England defense, too. Like Denver, I want to believe in Atlanta, but the Falcons have always been a better home team... if they're legit contenders, they win this game. I don't think they're there yet. The Giants seem to alternate good stretches with bad stretches and have won their last two decisively; I want to hope they'll drop one to the Lions, who need to end their road losing streak, but with Calvin Johnson likely out, I have trouble believing in the Honolulu Blue and Silver this week.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

October is off and running...

A busy October and it's only the 9th! The 2010-11 NHL season has begun, the MLB playoffs have begun, the 2010 NFL season is a quarter over... some big trades have gone down and we already have a Heisman frontrunner in the college football ranks. Let's take a look.

The Likely Reunion

Randy Moss made no secret at the start of the year that he was unhappy having to play for a contract in New England. Probably because he knew, having looked at how Bill Belicheck and the Patriots do business, that his services were not going to be retained after the year. Whether he became a cancer in the locker room or not, we'll never know. But something was definitely amiss for the Patriots to unload him for a 3rd-round draft pick - especially to a team they have on their schedule. But make no mistake - the Patriots think they're better off and if there's any team that can be successful spreading the ball around to a group of mostly-unknown receivers, it's the Patriots. They won a Super Bowl that way. Meanwhile, Moss becomes an immediate upgrade to a reeling Vikings team. Say what you like about the reasons why, but Favre is struggling mightily. Maybe it's age, maybe it's unfamiliarity with his receiving corps. What I see is an older quarterback who can still heave it, but needs help. Part of what made Sidney Rice so important was that he had a guy who was physically dominant and could go get the ball when he chucked it up there. No one on the current Vikings roster can do that - until now. And I imagine every quarterback feels more comfortable with a guy he knows will actively go get the ball and doesn't need it thrown between the numbers each time. And for only a 3rd-round pick? The Vikings definitely got the better part of the deal. But make no mistake - this also means Favre has no excuses now. He's got his guy - he's clamored to play with Moss for years. If he continues to struggle, it's firmly on his shoulders alone now.

The Best of the Mediocre?
Much has been noted this week about how parity reigns this year in the NFL - most teams are 2-2. There is only one undefeated. There are only four winless. Moreso than any other year recently, it is hard to pick winners. Teams that seem reliable drop easy wins. Teams that look hopeless pick up wins. I've seen several games where the dominant team somehow loses. It's been an odd start to the season, but make no mistake - it keeps things exciting. There are a lot of teams that are better than their records, I think. Many divisions are going to be wide open past the halfway mark of the season. Buckle up, folks, because this is going to be a crazier year than any of us thought. But I will tell you this - the class of the league is in the AFC. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and the NY Jets all look poised to smoke anyone in their way. As far as the NFC goes, I was high on Green Bay, but they're not impressing and, quite frankly, there's no team stepping up and crushing their competition the way the Steelers, Jets or Ravens are in the AFC.

Thank you, Atlanta Braves...
For actually giving us an MLB LDS series worth watching. Seeing the Yankees dominate the Twins yet again has been unspeakably disheartening, since this looked like the Twins' year and they should be taking advantage of homefield, well, advantage, but they didn't and now they continue to prove their postseason ineptitude against the Yankees. The Rays are similarly playing letdown baseball against a Rangers team that I, personally, don't think is better. The Phillies are dominating the Reds, but that's no surprise to me. Meanwhile, the Braves are thankfully putting on a series against the Giants - perhaps the most even matchup of the playoffs so far. Personally, if the Twins lose, I'm rooting for the Braves, because how sweet would it be to see Bobby Cox win another World Series as he walks off into the sunset? Still, right now though, I wonder if anyone can really beat the Phillies.

Can the Spartans tie up Shoelace?
The marquee college football matchup of the weekend is, unquestionably, Michigan State vs. Michigan. No, this isn't home bias on my part. Well, maybe a little. But make no mistake - Denard Robinson is the most electric player in college football right now, but he also hasn't faced a serious defense yet. He will today against Michigan State. Until now, he's separated himself by leaps and bounds from the rest of the pack insofar as the Heisman race goes - he's accomplishing feats that are simply unbelievable. But the question remains, can he do it against a credible defensive unit? While this game isn't likely to have huge bearing on who plays in the BCS Championship in January, it will be an entertaining matchup between two unbeatens in an in-state rivalry game and it is a huge benchmark game for Denard "Shoelace" Robinson. If he can light up the Spartan defense, I say the Heisman race ends today.

And the NHL season begins...
And it already seems like a season to remember. In the first night of play, we had the first fight of the year, in which Steve MacIntyre of the Oilers knocked out Raitis Ivanans of the Flames with a blow that, reportedly, might have resulted in some brain damage (Ivanans had to be helped off the ice). In the second night of play, the Atlanta Thrashers' goalie, Ondrej Pavelec collapsed unexpectedly while play was stopped at the other end of the ice. Meanwhile, on Friday, the Red Wings notched a most dominant win, 4-0 against the Anaheim Ducks. In a most remarkable way to start the year, the Wings see Jimmy Howard notch a shutout in the first game of the year, see hometown newcomer Mike Modano score a goal on his first shot in the Red and White, and see one of their best players - Pavel Datsyuk - record a Gordie Howe Hat Trick (goal, assist, fight), a rather unlikely event for a man who's won four straight Lady Byng Trophies (for sportsmanship). As coach Mike Babcock and fellow star Henrik Zetterburg joked after the game, it probably won't be a fifth straight this year now. I've said it since the Wings signed Modano - the magic is with this team this year and Friday night's win to open the season has not changed my mind. Lord Stanley's Cup is coming back to Detroit in 2011.

Pierce's Picks - Week 5

I didn't have time last week to do a Recap, so I'll just leave it at this - I was a rough 7-7 again last week.

That puts me at 35-27 for the season.

Gold remains the color used to denote winners.

Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
Jacksonville (2-2) @ Buffalo (0-4)
Tampa Bay (2-1) @ Cincinnati (2-2)
Atlanta (3-1) @ Cleveland (1-3)
St. Louis (2-2) @ Detroit (0-4)
Kansas City (3-0) @ Indianapolis (2-2)
Green Bay (3-1) @ Washington (2-2)
Chicago (3-1) @ Carolina (0-4)
Denver (2-2) @ Baltimore (3-1)
NY Giants (2-2) @ Houston (3-1)

Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
New Orleans (3-1) @ Arizona (2-2)
San Diego (2-2) @ Oakland (1-3)
Tennessee (2-2) @ Dallas (1-2)

Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (2-2) @ San Francisco (0-4)

Monday Night -
Minnesota (1-2) @ NY Jets (3-1)

Byes -
Miami, New England, Pittsburgh, Seattle

So a couple words on my picks - I like Carolina to get an unlikely win against the Todd Collins Show; I don't like Chicago and I like them less without Cutler. I think San Francisco can beat the Kolb-led Eagles. Randy Moss adds a lot to the Vikings, but not enough to beat a team that's better at every position. If Kansas City were hosting Indianapolis, I'd be all over picking them to win... on that note, if you look at ESPN's Eliminator Challenge, 28% of participants are locked into the Colts beating the last unbeaten team... I'm not that confident in that pick, not by a longshot. I think Cincy is overrated and Tampa is underrated, plus I think most teams play with a boost coming out of their bye. The Lions have to win this week at home or I think all of their offseason momentum evaporates and it just becomes another ho-hum year of struggling to be mediocre.

Saturday, October 2, 2010

Pierce's Picks - Week 4

Last week was a rough 7-9.

On the season, I'm at 28-20.

We'll keep with the gold color for marking winners.

Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
San Francisco (0-3) @ Atlanta (2-1)
NY Jets (2-1) @ Buffalo (0-3)
Cincinnati (2-1) @ Cleveland (0-3)
Detroit (0-3) @ Green Bay (2-1)
Denver (1-2) @ Tennessee (2-1)
Seattle (2-1) @ St. Louis (1-2)
Carolina (0-3) @ New Orleans (2-1)
Baltimore (2-1) @ Pittsburgh (3-0)

Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
Indianapolis (2-1) @ Jacksonville (1-2)
Houston (2-1) @ Oakland (1-2)
Arizona (2-1) @ San Diego (1-2)
Washington (1-2) @ Philadelphia (2-1)

Sunday Night -
Chicago (3-0) @ NY Giants (1-2)

Monday Night -
New England (2-1) @ Miami (2-1)

Byes -
Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota, Tampa Bay

I like to think this might be the week my Lions get an unlikely victory that shocks the world, but that's probably not happening and I'm not betting on it. If Pittsburgh can beat Baltimore and start 4-0 without Big Ben, that team earns my vote of confidence as the most dominant team in the NFL through the first quarter of the season. The Bears might go 4-0 also, but they're winning with luck as much as anything, although the weakness of their schedule going forward might propel them even higher yet. A lot of teams like the 49ers, Seahawks, Giants and Broncos could use victories this week to help even out their records or regain some semblance of respect, but I have trouble thinking it's going to happen.