Last week saw me go 2-2 again, putting me at an even 4-4 for the playoffs thusfar.
As for this weekend's games...
Sunday at 3:00pm ET -
Green Bay (6-seed) @ Chicago (2-seed)
A cold-weather divisional game in Chicago for two outdoor teams. This is what January football is all about right here. Chicago will have home-field advantage, but Green Bay is comfortable out in the cold, so I question just how advantageous that will be, especially with the two cities close enough that the crowd could very well be split. Both teams have solid defenses - Chicago's might be slightly better due to experience, but Green Bay's might be slightly hungrier being the younger of the two. Chicago has the better run game as well, giving them an advantage if the weather gets really bad and in the clock management department, too. However, I like Aaron Rodgers over Jay Cutler if the game is close and calls for some heroics. I think up to now, Chicago has been the luckiest team in the league, ever since that TD-not-a-TD catch by Calvin Johnson in the first game of the season. I like Aaron Rodgers and a better overall Packers team to give them a dose of reality. I think it'll be close and I take Rodgers in a clutch, cold-weather situation over Cutler any day of the week. Green Bay to the Super Bowl.
Sunday at 6:30pm ET -
NY Jets (6-seed) @ Pittsburgh (2-seed)
Much like the earlier game, this is going to be a cold-weather outdoor game between two outdoor, cold-weather teams. Much like the other game, both teams have solid defenses - in fact, these two teams have two of the best defenses in the league. So the question becomes, which offense can overcome? I believe have won their big game already - they beat the Patriots and the Colts. But I have to feel like they're out of gas. They've slain their dragons and the Steelers are a new beast entirely. Without the ability to run the ball on the Steeler defense, I don't trust Mark Sanchez to be the game-changing quarterback the Jets might need. He can manage a game just fine, but win it... well, we'll see. Ben Roethlisberger, meanwhile, has two Super Bowl rings and plenty of big-game playoff experience. He's a gamer, a winner and I believe that this game will come down to which QB can make the big play at clutch time - and in that case, it's no question to me, it's Big Ben. Pittsburgh to face Green Bay in the Super Bowl.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Friday, January 14, 2011
Pierce's Picks - Divisional Playoff Weekend
Wild Card Weekend was just that - wild - and I went 2-2 on my picks.
Let's move on to this week's matchups:
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
Baltimore (5-seed) @ Pittsburgh (2-seed)
A huge matchup against one of the best rivalries of football right now. These teams are virtually mirror images of each other, built to punch each other right in the mouth and keep punching. I think the Ravens are on the rise with their retooled offense and while they're a great playoff road team, I find it hard to go against a gamer like Ben Roethlisberger, who is one of those guys who goes out there and puts it all on the line to win the game. Defensively, they have Troy Polamalu doing the same thing. I love the intensity of Joe Flacco and Ray Lewis for Baltimore, but at the end of the day, I think Ben can make the big play in the big moment and Joe isn't quite there yet.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Green Bay (6-seed) @ Atlanta (1-seed)
The two best teams in the NFC are matched up here and I have zero doubt that the winner goes to the Super Bowl. They played a close match in the regular season and while part of me thinks momentum can carry the Packers through the Falcons, I'm sticking to my guns on one of my steady rules of picks over the past two years - don't go against the Falcons at home. I think Aaron Rodgers is a better gamer than Matt Ryan, but I think the healthy Falcons team is better overall than a Packers team ravaged by injury over the season. The Falcons play mistake-free football and their home-field advantage gives them the edge here for me.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Seattle (4-seed) @ Chicago (2-seed)
I don't like either team in the playoffs. As I think about these teams, I see one who stumbled into the playoffs due to a weak division and another who stumbled into the playoffs due to lucky break after lucky break. But one of them has to win and go to the NFC Championship. This is less about which team is better, to me, than it is which team is less worse. It boils to to which I like less... the Seahawks on the road, or Jay Cutler in a pressure situation. Given that it's going to be absolutely freezing out there, I'm going with the home team, perhaps against my better judgment.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
NY Jets (6-seed) @ New England (1-seed)
All week long, the Jets have yap-yap-yapped. And the Patriots maintain their usual business-like silence. I'm not sure how a team can yap-yap-yap when the last time these teams played, it was a 45-3 obliteration that made one team look like they were still playing high school ball. I consider Tom Brady one of the top-5 all-time QBs and one of the best playoff QBs - I'm not going against him in the playoffs after he's had the most masterful regular season of his career. I don't expect 45-3 to be the score again, but I think this will still likely be the widest margin of victory of the weekend... I get the feeling that Belicheck and the Patriots like rubbing the Jets' nose in it after all the yap-yap-yap... and to be honest, I don't blame 'em.
Let's move on to this week's matchups:
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
Baltimore (5-seed) @ Pittsburgh (2-seed)
A huge matchup against one of the best rivalries of football right now. These teams are virtually mirror images of each other, built to punch each other right in the mouth and keep punching. I think the Ravens are on the rise with their retooled offense and while they're a great playoff road team, I find it hard to go against a gamer like Ben Roethlisberger, who is one of those guys who goes out there and puts it all on the line to win the game. Defensively, they have Troy Polamalu doing the same thing. I love the intensity of Joe Flacco and Ray Lewis for Baltimore, but at the end of the day, I think Ben can make the big play in the big moment and Joe isn't quite there yet.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Green Bay (6-seed) @ Atlanta (1-seed)
The two best teams in the NFC are matched up here and I have zero doubt that the winner goes to the Super Bowl. They played a close match in the regular season and while part of me thinks momentum can carry the Packers through the Falcons, I'm sticking to my guns on one of my steady rules of picks over the past two years - don't go against the Falcons at home. I think Aaron Rodgers is a better gamer than Matt Ryan, but I think the healthy Falcons team is better overall than a Packers team ravaged by injury over the season. The Falcons play mistake-free football and their home-field advantage gives them the edge here for me.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Seattle (4-seed) @ Chicago (2-seed)
I don't like either team in the playoffs. As I think about these teams, I see one who stumbled into the playoffs due to a weak division and another who stumbled into the playoffs due to lucky break after lucky break. But one of them has to win and go to the NFC Championship. This is less about which team is better, to me, than it is which team is less worse. It boils to to which I like less... the Seahawks on the road, or Jay Cutler in a pressure situation. Given that it's going to be absolutely freezing out there, I'm going with the home team, perhaps against my better judgment.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
NY Jets (6-seed) @ New England (1-seed)
All week long, the Jets have yap-yap-yapped. And the Patriots maintain their usual business-like silence. I'm not sure how a team can yap-yap-yap when the last time these teams played, it was a 45-3 obliteration that made one team look like they were still playing high school ball. I consider Tom Brady one of the top-5 all-time QBs and one of the best playoff QBs - I'm not going against him in the playoffs after he's had the most masterful regular season of his career. I don't expect 45-3 to be the score again, but I think this will still likely be the widest margin of victory of the weekend... I get the feeling that Belicheck and the Patriots like rubbing the Jets' nose in it after all the yap-yap-yap... and to be honest, I don't blame 'em.
Friday, January 7, 2011
Pierce's Picks - Wild Card Weekend
I went 11-5 to close out the regular season, putting my final season record at 161-95, giving me a regular season mark of 63% or so, the rough equivalent of a 10-6 average.
Now, onto the playoff picks - as well as a winner, I'll offer my justification.
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
New Orleans (5-seed) @ Seattle (4-seed)
It's hard to pick for the weakest division winner in the history of the NFL, although I think they have a slight chance here. Qwest Field is a tough place to play and the Saints have run-game troubles. But the Seahawks have been blown out at home this year against other winning teams and I don't expect a team with a losing record to make it a round in the playoffs. The Saints are banged up and not in an ideal state, but I expect them to pull out a win here.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
NY Jets (6-seed) @ Indianapolis (3-seed)
Part of me wants to go with the Jets here - they tooled themselves for this game and they gave Peyton and the Colts one heck of a game last year when the Colts were healthy. But I think swagger can only carry you so far and the team has been out of sync lately. I also think the Colts, with their mechanical style of (usually) mistake-free offensive efficiency are one of the best swagger-killers in the league as a result. Much like the Saints, I think the Colts have their problems and aren't likely to go far, but I think they send the Jets packing early.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Baltimore (5-seed) @ Kansas City (4-seed)
Joe Flacco and his Ravens are one of the better road playoff teams around right now and while I do think the Chiefs are a sound team, I think Baltimore's got the big-play capability that the Chiefs lack. In some ways, these teams mirror each other, but Baltimore is a little further along in the process. The Chiefs promising season ends here.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
Green Bay (6-seed) @ Philadelphia (3-seed)
The clear game of the weekend, this game will feature two unstoppable, high-power offenses. To me, this game boils down to one simple question - which defense do I expect to make a big play when needed? If that's the question, then the answer is Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. I think the young Eagles defense isn't ready and the seasoned Packers defense is.
Now, onto the playoff picks - as well as a winner, I'll offer my justification.
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
New Orleans (5-seed) @ Seattle (4-seed)
It's hard to pick for the weakest division winner in the history of the NFL, although I think they have a slight chance here. Qwest Field is a tough place to play and the Saints have run-game troubles. But the Seahawks have been blown out at home this year against other winning teams and I don't expect a team with a losing record to make it a round in the playoffs. The Saints are banged up and not in an ideal state, but I expect them to pull out a win here.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
NY Jets (6-seed) @ Indianapolis (3-seed)
Part of me wants to go with the Jets here - they tooled themselves for this game and they gave Peyton and the Colts one heck of a game last year when the Colts were healthy. But I think swagger can only carry you so far and the team has been out of sync lately. I also think the Colts, with their mechanical style of (usually) mistake-free offensive efficiency are one of the best swagger-killers in the league as a result. Much like the Saints, I think the Colts have their problems and aren't likely to go far, but I think they send the Jets packing early.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Baltimore (5-seed) @ Kansas City (4-seed)
Joe Flacco and his Ravens are one of the better road playoff teams around right now and while I do think the Chiefs are a sound team, I think Baltimore's got the big-play capability that the Chiefs lack. In some ways, these teams mirror each other, but Baltimore is a little further along in the process. The Chiefs promising season ends here.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
Green Bay (6-seed) @ Philadelphia (3-seed)
The clear game of the weekend, this game will feature two unstoppable, high-power offenses. To me, this game boils down to one simple question - which defense do I expect to make a big play when needed? If that's the question, then the answer is Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. I think the young Eagles defense isn't ready and the seasoned Packers defense is.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Looking ahead from 2010 - NFL Playoffs and 2011
I said it first...
First of all - I must gloat just a moment in saying right now that I called it. Andrew Luck will stay at Stanford. Like I told people, you don't go to Stanford to leave school early for the NFL. You go to graduate. Once his degree is in hand, the NFL will be ready and waiting for him. Now, where his coach ends up, that's a more interesting situation. A month ago, I would have said Michigan, but that appears to be not happening anymore and with Luck staying at Stanford, I wouldn't be surprised if Harbaugh did, too. San Francisco seems logical to me, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jon Gruden ends up in Denver. As for Miami... maybe, but I also read that Harbaugh would prefer to coach in the NFC, as opposed to facing his brother on a semi-regular basis in the AFC. We'll see.
Meanwhile, in the Maize & Blue...
As for the University of Michigan, say what you want, but it was time to let Rich Rodriguez go. I expect him to be successful elsewhere, but his bull-in-a-china-shop attitude when he came to Michigan, trampling on tradition at times without even being aware of it, made it clear he wasn't the right man there, not from day one. Maybe that wasn't fair to him, but at the same time, he was ignorant for not being aware of the traditions he came to at Michigan and for disregarding them as he did. It was time for the university to move on and I expect Denard Robinson to do so, too. But in 3 years, RichRod hadn't gotten the program beyond a one-man offense and a shoddy defense... winning eases lots of wounds, but he wasn't able to accomplish that. Whoever comes in will come to a bare cupboard and the Wolverine faithful will have to be prepared for another couple rough years ahead.
And how about the Silver & Black...
How do you fire a coach who goes 6-0 in division? Tom Cable took the Raiders from a dysfunctional 5-11 to a gritty, tough, respectable 8-8 and got fired for his troubles. I'm still in awe. The Raiders were built in his image and it was an image that fit Raider football - tough, in-your-face, not-gonna-knock-us-down, etc, and now after a season of marked progress, he's gone. It's a mystifying move to me and only continues to demonstrate just how dysfunctional Al Davis and the Raiders are. Even if he wanted Hue Jackson to coach, or an outside shot at Harbaugh, I don't think you let a player's coach like Cable go, not if he has his players winning. Terrible move, Oakland. To the fans of the Silver and Black... ouch.
Coaching Predictions -
I like Denver to go after an offensive-style coach who will mesh well with Elway's front office and Tebow at QB. I think Jon Gruden, if he wants to return to coaching, is a good fit here, especially in a division he's coached in before that would give him a shot at Al Davis twice a year.
In Carolina, I'd keep my eye on Rob Ryan. He's overdue for a head coaching job (I thought he'd get one before Rex, honestly) and I think he fits what Carolina wants and needs - a tough defensive guy who can build a team that can withstand the offensive firepower of Atlanta, Tampa Bay and New Orleans. He'll need an experienced offensive coordinator for that side of the game, but otherwise, I think it's a very likely scenario.
San Francisco is the most likely Harbaugh scenario, but I'm not sold on it yet. If I had to put money on it, I'd probably go with Harbaugh. As for alternatives to that, there's not a lot of high-caliber coaching talent that seems readily available. If he was interested, I could see Brian Billick returning to the NFL here, but I expect if no Harbaugh, they'll find an up-and-coming offensive assistant like Hue Jackson, unless Oakland makes him their head coach.
Cleveland is a tough one and part of me expects to see Mike Holmgren step in, which isn't an ideal situation, but very possible. Mularkey from Atlanta appears to be a high possibility, but I expect them to be fairly exhaustive in their search - I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland is the last team with a coaching vacancy to fill it.
On my NFL Awards -
MVP - Tom Brady. There's just no question here. If you watched the Patriots or look at his stat-line, you can see why.
Offensive Player - Michael Vick. Absolutely electric. Not perfect, but he's the one who has the Eagles surging and when it comes down to a single offensive player you're forced to design your entire gameplan around, it's Michael Vick.
Defensive Player - Troy Polamalu. The Steelers defensive lives and breathes by this guy - if he's gone, so are they. And much like Vick, when you look at a single defensive player that you have to design your gameplan around, Polamalu and his flowing locks are exactly that. He's a dervish on the field capable of whatever the game calls for. That he missed time this year and the Steelers floundered a bit without him is testament to his deserving of this award.
Offensive Rookie - Sam Bradford. Boring, predictable, but he had a great rookie year as QB and was a main reason the Rams were NFC West contenders.
Defensive Rookie - Ndamukong Suh. The lynchpin of the Detroit Lions defense from here on out, he is as good as advertised and his disruptive line play only makes his fellow linemen better.
Coach of the Year - Bill Belicheck. The mad genius dumped Randy Moss, prompting many people (not including yours truly) to think that he'd given up on the season. Instead, this very young Patriots roster was coached to one of the most stunning seasons of football I've seen. I hold Belicheck to a high bar and normally wouldn't select him for this award, but the sheer youth and inexperience on defense, which has improved as the season went on, as well as the young skill players on offense, is too compelling for me to overlook.
First of all - I must gloat just a moment in saying right now that I called it. Andrew Luck will stay at Stanford. Like I told people, you don't go to Stanford to leave school early for the NFL. You go to graduate. Once his degree is in hand, the NFL will be ready and waiting for him. Now, where his coach ends up, that's a more interesting situation. A month ago, I would have said Michigan, but that appears to be not happening anymore and with Luck staying at Stanford, I wouldn't be surprised if Harbaugh did, too. San Francisco seems logical to me, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jon Gruden ends up in Denver. As for Miami... maybe, but I also read that Harbaugh would prefer to coach in the NFC, as opposed to facing his brother on a semi-regular basis in the AFC. We'll see.
Meanwhile, in the Maize & Blue...
As for the University of Michigan, say what you want, but it was time to let Rich Rodriguez go. I expect him to be successful elsewhere, but his bull-in-a-china-shop attitude when he came to Michigan, trampling on tradition at times without even being aware of it, made it clear he wasn't the right man there, not from day one. Maybe that wasn't fair to him, but at the same time, he was ignorant for not being aware of the traditions he came to at Michigan and for disregarding them as he did. It was time for the university to move on and I expect Denard Robinson to do so, too. But in 3 years, RichRod hadn't gotten the program beyond a one-man offense and a shoddy defense... winning eases lots of wounds, but he wasn't able to accomplish that. Whoever comes in will come to a bare cupboard and the Wolverine faithful will have to be prepared for another couple rough years ahead.
And how about the Silver & Black...
How do you fire a coach who goes 6-0 in division? Tom Cable took the Raiders from a dysfunctional 5-11 to a gritty, tough, respectable 8-8 and got fired for his troubles. I'm still in awe. The Raiders were built in his image and it was an image that fit Raider football - tough, in-your-face, not-gonna-knock-us-down, etc, and now after a season of marked progress, he's gone. It's a mystifying move to me and only continues to demonstrate just how dysfunctional Al Davis and the Raiders are. Even if he wanted Hue Jackson to coach, or an outside shot at Harbaugh, I don't think you let a player's coach like Cable go, not if he has his players winning. Terrible move, Oakland. To the fans of the Silver and Black... ouch.
Coaching Predictions -
I like Denver to go after an offensive-style coach who will mesh well with Elway's front office and Tebow at QB. I think Jon Gruden, if he wants to return to coaching, is a good fit here, especially in a division he's coached in before that would give him a shot at Al Davis twice a year.
In Carolina, I'd keep my eye on Rob Ryan. He's overdue for a head coaching job (I thought he'd get one before Rex, honestly) and I think he fits what Carolina wants and needs - a tough defensive guy who can build a team that can withstand the offensive firepower of Atlanta, Tampa Bay and New Orleans. He'll need an experienced offensive coordinator for that side of the game, but otherwise, I think it's a very likely scenario.
San Francisco is the most likely Harbaugh scenario, but I'm not sold on it yet. If I had to put money on it, I'd probably go with Harbaugh. As for alternatives to that, there's not a lot of high-caliber coaching talent that seems readily available. If he was interested, I could see Brian Billick returning to the NFL here, but I expect if no Harbaugh, they'll find an up-and-coming offensive assistant like Hue Jackson, unless Oakland makes him their head coach.
Cleveland is a tough one and part of me expects to see Mike Holmgren step in, which isn't an ideal situation, but very possible. Mularkey from Atlanta appears to be a high possibility, but I expect them to be fairly exhaustive in their search - I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland is the last team with a coaching vacancy to fill it.
On my NFL Awards -
MVP - Tom Brady. There's just no question here. If you watched the Patriots or look at his stat-line, you can see why.
Offensive Player - Michael Vick. Absolutely electric. Not perfect, but he's the one who has the Eagles surging and when it comes down to a single offensive player you're forced to design your entire gameplan around, it's Michael Vick.
Defensive Player - Troy Polamalu. The Steelers defensive lives and breathes by this guy - if he's gone, so are they. And much like Vick, when you look at a single defensive player that you have to design your gameplan around, Polamalu and his flowing locks are exactly that. He's a dervish on the field capable of whatever the game calls for. That he missed time this year and the Steelers floundered a bit without him is testament to his deserving of this award.
Offensive Rookie - Sam Bradford. Boring, predictable, but he had a great rookie year as QB and was a main reason the Rams were NFC West contenders.
Defensive Rookie - Ndamukong Suh. The lynchpin of the Detroit Lions defense from here on out, he is as good as advertised and his disruptive line play only makes his fellow linemen better.
Coach of the Year - Bill Belicheck. The mad genius dumped Randy Moss, prompting many people (not including yours truly) to think that he'd given up on the season. Instead, this very young Patriots roster was coached to one of the most stunning seasons of football I've seen. I hold Belicheck to a high bar and normally wouldn't select him for this award, but the sheer youth and inexperience on defense, which has improved as the season went on, as well as the young skill players on offense, is too compelling for me to overlook.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Pierce's Picks - Week 17
The fantasy season is over and so goes the regular season. Last week I went 8-8, putting my season mark through 16 up to 150-90.
Winners in gold.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Carolina (2-13) @ Atlanta (12-3)
Pittsburgh (11-4) @ Cleveland (5-10)
Minnesota (6-9) @ Detroit (5-10)
Oakland (7-8) @ Kansas City (10-5)
Miami (7-8) @ New England (13-2)
Cincinnati (4-11) @ Baltimore (11-4)
Tampa Bay (9-6) @ New Orleans (11-4)
Buffalo (4-11) @ NY Jets (10-5)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (11-4) @ Green Bay (9-6)
Tennessee (6-9) @ Indianapolis (9-6)
NY Giants (9-6) @ Washington (6-9)
Jacksonville (8-7) @ Houston (5-10)
Dallas (5-10) @ Philadelphia (10-5)
Arizona (5-10) @ San Francisco (5-10)
San Diego (8-7) @ Denver (4-11)
Sunday Night -
St. Louis (7-8) @ Seattle (6-9)
We'll finish the season with one storyline that'll be talked about going throughout the playoffs - finding out whether or not the NFC West will finish with a division winner under .500. Let's hope not. I'm picking St. Louis. Lots of these games mean little and many teams will rest starters, so it's hard to discern winners always. I like Dallas and Miami for those reasons. I like Detroit to beat Minnesota and finish the season strong. Jacksonville loses David Garrard, as well, giving Houston the opportunity to finish with a win, also.
I'll be continuing my picks throughout the playoffs and I'll continue to bring my thoughts to this blog as time allows.
Winners in gold.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Carolina (2-13) @ Atlanta (12-3)
Pittsburgh (11-4) @ Cleveland (5-10)
Minnesota (6-9) @ Detroit (5-10)
Oakland (7-8) @ Kansas City (10-5)
Miami (7-8) @ New England (13-2)
Cincinnati (4-11) @ Baltimore (11-4)
Tampa Bay (9-6) @ New Orleans (11-4)
Buffalo (4-11) @ NY Jets (10-5)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (11-4) @ Green Bay (9-6)
Tennessee (6-9) @ Indianapolis (9-6)
NY Giants (9-6) @ Washington (6-9)
Jacksonville (8-7) @ Houston (5-10)
Dallas (5-10) @ Philadelphia (10-5)
Arizona (5-10) @ San Francisco (5-10)
San Diego (8-7) @ Denver (4-11)
Sunday Night -
St. Louis (7-8) @ Seattle (6-9)
We'll finish the season with one storyline that'll be talked about going throughout the playoffs - finding out whether or not the NFC West will finish with a division winner under .500. Let's hope not. I'm picking St. Louis. Lots of these games mean little and many teams will rest starters, so it's hard to discern winners always. I like Dallas and Miami for those reasons. I like Detroit to beat Minnesota and finish the season strong. Jacksonville loses David Garrard, as well, giving Houston the opportunity to finish with a win, also.
I'll be continuing my picks throughout the playoffs and I'll continue to bring my thoughts to this blog as time allows.
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