I want to take some time this month to give a quick preview and synopsis of each division race shaping up in baseball. We're going to begin with the division closest to home for me - the AL Central - and move through the AL before talking about the NL.
The AL Central - Up for grabs!
(Standings as of July 17th)
Cleveland - 49-43
Detroit - 49-45 (1 GB)
Chicago - 46-48 (4 GB)
Minnesota - 43-49 (5 GB)
Kansas City - 38-56 (12 GB)
This division yearns for a team to really take charge. Cleveland has been in charge for most of the season, but by the slimmest of margins, with Detroit having been on their tail all year long and occasional taking the lead from them. Minnesota began the year as the worst team in baseball but have steadily improved and, by virtue of no strong division leader, are arguably in contention. Chicago, like Minnesota, has not played exceptional ball this year, but is also in the mix. Kansas City has no hope or chance of accomplishing anything this season and really won't even be sellers at the trade deadline; their roster is mostly up-and-comers from their farm system, so given those facts, that's the last time I'll be mentioning the Royals in this post.
Everyone's been expecting Cleveland to fall off sometime this year. Since April, the word has been "the Indians can't keep this going all season." Well, I hate to break it to everyone who thought that, but it's July now and the Indians aren't going anywhere. They've got a solid rotation, a solid lineup and they're playing solid baseball. They aren't flashy, they aren't lighting up the stat sheets, but they're playing good baseball and sometimes - especially in a wide-open division like the AL Central - that's all it takes. If another team doesn't step up and take charge, Cleveland's steady play will win them the division and they'll end up losing in the first round of the playoffs to either New York or Boston. The only player the Indians are going to be missing for an extended period of time is Shin-Soo Choo and, so far, they've been faring fine without him. The biggest questions for the Indians going forward is: Can Justin Masterson keep pitching a 2.80 ERA and will they find a reliable fifth starter?
The Tigers are known, under Jim Leyland, for second-half drop-offs. Already this season, they're 0-2, dropping their first two second-half games to the White Sox. But this is a Tiger team with a sense of urgency - both Leyland and GM Dave Dombrowski are in the last years of their contracts and ownership has basically intoned that extensions come with results. A division title is the expectation and the feeling is that the team can do it. Detroit is in good shape health-wise - only Austin Jackson is missing from the lineup regularly right now due to injury and his strikeout problems haven't led to him being missed. The Tigers have the nastiest middle-of-the-order of the AL Central's batting lineups, with everyday starters Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Jhonny Peralta all hitting over .300. Starters Brennan Bosch and Alex Avila are both hitting above .280. The big question for the Tigers moving forward is pitching - Verlander is their unquestioned ace, but after his 2.29 ERA, the next best starter's ERA is Brad Penny's 4.50. With Phil Coke's return to the bullpen and Charlie Furbush being sent back to Triple-A after getting shelled by the Royals before the All-Star Break, the Tigers also lack a fifth starter at the moment. They need better production from their pitchers not named Verlander or their meaty batting lineup won't matter when it's sitting at home in October. Because of that lineup and because of their definitive ace, I think the Tigers have the best chance to survive a playoff series against New York or Boston - but they have to get there, first. Expect them to go out looking for pitching help - starting or relief - before the trade deadline.
The Chicago White Sox are a team I do not understand. That's probably partly the idea; they have a pretty eccentric manager in Ozzie Guillen, but you get the feeling that his time is running short as this team continues to lack a strong identity. Like the Tigers, the White Sox lack any major injuries - they have a couple guys on the 15-day DL, but most recoveries are looking on-schedule. Their off-season deal for Adam Dunn is flaming out, as he's batting .159. The rest of their lineup is solid; only Konerko is above .300, with A.J. Pierzynski close at .290. The rest are in the .250 area - respectable and able to get the job done. It's not a lineup to be feared, but as Verlander found out on Friday, it's a lineup that can hang some runs on you either way. The White Sox are also in the best position pitching - they have an excess of starters, meaning they'll be able to bargain one away before the trade deadline. Right now, they have six viable starters, with Gavin Floyd's ERA of 4.37 the worst, other than the oft-injured (and currently on the 15-day DL) Jake Peavy's 5.27. But if you remove Peavy from the argument, they have a five-man rotation with the best ERA at 3.10 and the worst at 4.37 - like their batting lineup, nothing spectacular, but respectable and able to get the job done. The White Sox are a perfectly average team, but if they play good baseball, they have a shot at the division. However, like the Indians, I believe they're built for the sustained success of a division race and not the intensity of the playoffs. They'll have cards to play at the trade deadline, though, so if they make a considerable acquisition, that could change.
The Minnesota Twins are in this race because of the weakness of the division. This puts them in the most unfortunate place of all the teams involved, in my opinion. With a number of expiring contracts this season, the Twins would be in a perfect position to sell if they were completely out of it; but given the money they've spent on players, the obligation is to go for it and it appears they intend to do just that. This is a team, though, that can't stay healthy - Justin Morneau is out indefinitely, Jason Kubel and Denard Span have been out for almost a month, Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker are both pitching rehab sessions. Those are five starters on the DL and, in fact, all season long the Twins have had starters on the DL. A healthy Twins team might be able to contend. However, Gardenhire's Twins are unable to beat the Yankees in the playoffs - something that might be due in part to the lack of an ace or a lineup that plays inspired playoff baseball. This season has proven one disturbing fact about the Twins: their minor league cupboard is not promising. While the expectation is to win now, I think the Twins should shelve this season and set the foundation to win next season and the year after that. With Joe Mauer's absurd contract to work around, they'll have trouble re-signing all of their expensive free agents. With many teams looking to deal down the stretch, they could fetch top trade dollar for the likes of Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Cuddyer, in particular, I think, would be a trade deadline prize for any team - and the irony is that he could still be a free agent after this season and re-sign with the Twins if he wanted. But the Twins need to realize that a win-now attitude sacrifices their future - in fact, it reminds me of the Vikings and their attempt to "win now" with Brett Favre, neglecting to stock up on young talent and pave the road ahead. The Twins might have a chance, yes. There's no doubt of that, especially in the AL Central. But they aren't a playoff team this year, even if they do take the division. They're trying to win in a season clearly against them, when they should be dealing to pave the way ahead for next year and the years after. This is a team that could make some trades to set up a prime lineup next year - but only if they sacrifice this year.
My prediction? I'm sticking with my preseason choice of the Tigers. I think their lineup wins them some games their pitching blows, I think Verlander gives them an edge over the other teams and I think the urgency for Leyland and Dombrowski plays into it. But Cleveland and Chicago are worrisome - especially if Chicago can make a significant trade to give their starting pitching a shutdown guy or their lineup some extra pop. Cleveland will win if no one else steps up as the race goes on. As for Minnesota, well, I think it's an exercise in futility. They have a shot, but it's a longshot. They should sell. No matter what, as it is most years, this is a division that will come down to the wire.
Around the MLB -
Florida 13, Chi. Cubs 3 - Big Z gets chased off the mount early in his return from the DL as the Marlins lead a rout of the Cubs.
NY Yankees 4, Toronto 1 - C.C. Sabathia is chasing Cy Young as he puts up another great start for his 14th victory.
LA Angels 4, Oakland 2 - Jered Weaver allowed two runs over seven to pick up his 12th win in the first game of a doubleheader.
Oakland 4, LA Angels 3 - Rich Harden pitched the A's into extra innings in the second game, which was won on Scott Sizemore's walk-off RBI single in the tenth.
Boston 9, Tampa Bay 5 - James Shields suffers another loss, this time being burned for six runs over six innings by the Red Sox.
Chi. White Sox 5, Detroit 0 - Former Tiger Edwin Jackson zipped a complete game shutout past his old team, while Juan Pierre kept busy on base with four hits in five at-bats.
NY Mets 11, Philadelphia 2 - Jon Niese wins again as the Mets demolish Cole Hamels, pinning seven runs on the usually stalwart Phillies' starter.
Baltimore 6, Cleveland 5 - After dueling to a 3-2 score in the eigth, the Baltimore bats lit up to a 6-2 lead, then had to stymie the Tribe's ninth-inning attempt to comeback.
Houston 6, Pittsburgh 4 - A 4-3 lead evaporated for Pittsburgh as Houston rallied for the game-winning runs in the eighth.
Minnesota 4, Kansas City 3 - Carl Pavano and Jeff Francis provided a 3-3 tie after both pitched seven, but it was Michael Cuddyer who cracked the winning RBI in the eighth.
St. Louis 4, Cincinnati 1 - Chris Carpenter shutdown the Reds, holding them to one run, as Albert Pujols provided the punch with a 3-run HR in the fifth.
Washington 5, Atlanta 2 - Tommy Hanson suffered a rough outing, allowing five runs over six innings, as the Nats beat up on the Braves to back John Lannan's start and Wilson Ramos' 3 RBIs.
Arizona 3, LA Dodgers 2 - Ian Kennedy went seven innings for his 10th win, while Hiroki Kuroda suffered his 11th loss despite 7 strikeouts and a 3.13 ERA on the season.
Milwaukee 8, Colorado 7 - K-Rod gets his first win with his new team thanks to Rickie Weeks' HR in the top of the ninth that ultimately put the Brewers on top for good.
San Diego 11, San Francisco 3 - Barry Zito was demolished for eight runs over four innings as the Padres rolled over the Giants.
Texas 5, Seattle 1 - The Mariners' scoreless streak ended, but lose their eighth straight as C.J. Wilson holds them to one run for his tenth win.
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