Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Wednesday, June 29th - Will someone step up in the AL Central?

It's there for the taking...

I'm waiting for a team to really step up in the AL Central and run away with the division.  As far as I can tell, it's wide open for almost anyone.  Cleveland has played well early this season, but are now faced with some critical injuries to their lineup.  Detroit has played well throughout and continues to, but every time they grab a lead, they seem to drop just enough games to let Cleveland take it back.  In fact, these two teams seem to be playing musical chairs with the top spot over the past month.

The Chicago White Sox are floundering in the middle of the pack - about where I expected them to be this season.  In fact, out of every team in the AL Central, the White Sox are the only one living completely up to my expectations of them.  They get hot sometimes, cold at other times, and mostly just stay in the middle of the pack.  Kansas City is awful, but no one is surprised by that - they are, however, worse than I expected.  And the Minnesota Twins have collapsed entirely, something punctuated by Monday night's 15-0 blowout at Target Field. 

Despite the distance of the Twins and Royals out of first place (9 and 10 games, respectively), it seems like all it would take is for either team to get really hot and they'd have a realistic shot at the division.  Part of this is because neither team at the top - Detroit or Cleveland - seems to want to win the division so far.  The AL Central is a notoriously weak division, commonly preyed upon in the playoffs by the AL East winner or AL East runner-up, usually referred to as the AL Wild Card.  With the exception of the AL West, the Detroit Tigers have the lowest winning percentage (.538) of all division leaders.  Cleveland, one game behind, is at .526.  Both teams would be as low as fourth in the AL East, or third in the NL East and NL West. 

I said at the start of the season that Detroit would take the division.  I like the Tigers lineup a lot this year, but I've also argued that the true fulcrum of their season may very well be Rick Porcello - the third pitcher in their rotation.  This is Porcello's third season.  He had a magnificent rookie year in 2009, posting a 14-9 record and 3.96 ERA, capped off by a remarkable starting performance in Game 163, the one game playoff with the Twins (which was lost in extra innings).  He slumped last season, posting a 10-12 record and 4.92 ERA.  My opinion of the Tigers rotation was that Verlander and Scherzer would be steady, whereas Brad Penny and Phil Coke would be questionable, but good enough to fill out the 4th and 5th starter roles.  It was Porcello upon which I felt much relied; if he bounced back, the Tigers would take the division.  If not, they would falter.  So far, his pitching is a lot like the Tigers season - at times steady, at times hot, and at times horrendous.  He has posted a terrible June, going 2-3 in the month with a 6.97 ERA.  On the season, he's 6-6 with a 5.06 ERA and only 45 strikeouts. 

The Tigers are buoyed right now by the dominant pitching of Verlander and the reliable pitching of Scherzer.  Like the Indians, it wouldn't take much to set their ship off into murky waters.  The AL Central gets a bad rep as a weak division, partly due to teams being in the lower payroll brackets there.  But over the past decade, both the Tigers and Twins have joined the $100-million club in their spending.  Has it paid off?  The Twins spending has earned them a collapse this year, as they appear to be in the same shape the Tigers were several years ago - too much of their payroll tied up in bloated contracts.  Of their $113M payroll, the Twins owe $67.75M of it to five players: this was my fear for the Twins this season, that injuries would expose their lack of depth and doom them.  So it has.  The Tigers payroll is more balanced, with only two particularly gross contracts on unreliable or aged players (Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen); indeed, that depth helps cover the fact that they have a team ERA of 4.23 and only one starter (Verlander) posting an ERA under 4.  The Cleveland Indians, hot on the tail of the Tigers, have a team payroll of $48M.

It's possible that the division will chase itself through September.  It happens often.  But, for the first time in five years, wouldn't it be nice to see a team come out of the division chase strong and actually put up a fight against their almost-guaranteed AL East playoff opponent?  While my bias always pulls for the Tigers, I'd happily take a dominant Indians or Twins team if it means they'll stick it to the Yankees or Red Sox in the first round of the playoffs.  Sometimes, the only thing the chase does is tire you out at the end - and baseball, and the playoffs of any sport besides, are a marathon, not a dash.

Around the MLB -

Philadelphia 5, Boston 0 - Cliff Lee throws a complete game, his third straight shutout - he's gone 32 innings without allowing a run.
NY Yankees 12, Milwaukee 2 - Greinke only lasts two innings after the Yankees score 7 early.
Texas 7, Houston 3 - C.J. Wilson pitches seven solid innings, allowing 2 runs, and gets his first Major League hit: a triple.
NY Mets 14, Detroit 3 - The Mets blast two grand slams off reliever Daniel Schlereth to crush the Tigers.
St. Louis 6, Baltimore 2 - Two HRs and a solid start from Kyle Lohse propel the Cards to the win.
Arizona 6, Cleveland 4 - Wily Mo Pena wins it on a pinch-hit, two-run, walk-off HR after the Indians had tied it in the top of the ninth.
Pittsburgh 7, Toronto 6 - Jays hit four HRs in loss to Pirates.
Colorado 3, Chi. White Sox 2 - Rockies win in 13 on Ty Wigginton's walk-off single.
Tampa Bay 4, Cincinnati 3 - David Price throws 12 strikeouts in start; Evan Longoria bails out the Rays bullpen with a walk-off HR.
Minnesota 6, LA Dodgers 4 - Twins bullpen throws 4 scoreless innings to hold onto a big character win after Monday's loss.
Oakland 1, Florida 0 - Gio Gonzalez and Javier Vazquez duel it out through eight and seven sterling innings (respectively).  Oakland wins on Kurt Suzuki's sac-fly in the 2nd.
San Diego 4, Kansas City 2 - Clayton Richard notches the win after seven innings and only two runs allowed.
LA Angels 11, Washington 5 - Vernon Wells goes 4/5 at the plate and crushed his 6th HR over the past 14 games.
Atlanta 5, Seattle 4 - Pineda walks the bases loaded in the seventh to give the Braves all the opportunity they needed to pull ahead.
San Fracisco 13, Chi. Cubs 7 - Giants score in droves (3 in first, 3 in third, 5 in fifth) to rampage to the win in the first game of a day-night doubleheader.
San Francisco 6, Chi. Cubs 3 - Barry Zito returns from the DL and notches his first win of the season.

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