Super Bowl XLV Recap

A few words about Sunday's big game...

First, Dallas...

Dallas is catching a lot of jabs for the city's response to the snow and ice that stormed through there in the last week. Really? I realize that many of the people there were from the northern parts of the country, but Dallas and the rest of Texas is not a place that gets that kind of weather often. In a time when economic restraint should be practiced, perhaps people should realize that having substantial amounts of city budget set aside for weather events that may or may not happen on a yearly basis isn't the best course of action. I've lived in cities that have great snow response - Detroit and its suburbs, for example. I've lived in cities with virtually zero snow response - Seattle and it's suburbs. And places that get good amounts of snow but seem to have not yet discovered salt for some reason (that's you, Minneapolis, and we really need to talk about that). Seattle, much like Dallas, doesn't get snow every year. Some years a big storm rolls through and the city is paralyzed for a day or two. Remember everyone, salt costs money. Plows cost money. Maintaining those things costs money. It is unfortunate that said storm rolled through Dallas at the time of the Super Bowl, but holding it against Dallas that they didn't have the preparedness of a northern, oft-snow-laden city is ludicrous. Unfortunate timing, that's all it is.

The game...

Okay, it wasn't the epic game I expected. If there's one thing required to make a game epic, it's lead changes. Green Bay took hold of this game early and never lost its grip - oh, it came loose at times, but Green Bay held this game the entire time. Aaron Rodgers played like an MVP, if not better - his stat line had his receivers not had the dropsies would have been pretty incredible - and remembering the 7-3 Green Bay loss to Detroit late in the season makes me think that he might have been deserving of some season MVP consideration. All things considered, my hat is off to the Packers - resilience was their name and their game and any team that survives that many injuries to win the championship earns my respect. Unlike other years, I expect no fallout from either team - I have no doubt they'll both be playoff teams next year.

The Packers.

Two questionable mentions here, one for the players and one for the coach. To the players - sorry, receivers - man up and stop dropping the ball. Rodgers played as well as you could ask and his receivers almost dropped the ball and, as a result, gave the Steelers a chance to win. To McCarthy - why only 11 rushes? Especially in the second half, with the lead, it seemed the abandoned the rush when they could have been chewing more clock. That they rushed so little only further enhances the profile of Aaron Rodgers, who it is safe to say has arrived as one of the elite of the NFL. He's no longer just an elite fantasy football quarterback - he is an elite quarterback and should be mentioned alongside Tom Brady and Peyton Manning here on out.

The Steelers.

Where was the top-ranked defense of the league? More importantly, where was Troy Polamalu? The Defensive Player of the Year was more like the Defensive Player of Where on Sunday. I don't mean to hate, but Polamalu is the lynchpin of that defense and he might as well have not been out there at all. Beyond that, they couldn't get pressure on Rodgers - not enough, at least - but that's more a testament to good protection by the Packers line. I think Rashard Mendenhall is taking a lot of flak for his fumble when the scrutiny should be as much - if not moreso - on the two picks thrown by a Ben Roethlisberger who looked not-quite-right all night. I thought Mendenhall's hard running kept them in the game for the most part. But really, the story here was the lack of defense. Rodgers shredded the Steelers defense at will. That Randle El 2-point conversion play was, hands down, the best play of the game, though.

The aftermath.

I can't imagine how vindicated the Packers brass must feel now. They've watched Brett Favre ride various waves of success and calamity in New York and Minnesota, all the while building this young team and taking their fair share of criticism for shedding the aged quarterback. But here they stand, three years after that epochal franchise event, holding Lombardi. Aaron Rodgers has arrived and Favre has physically fallen apart, almost certainly done with his career, not out with glory, but out because he simply can't anymore. I watched Brett Favre go from a kid to an old man in the span of about 18 years. I hope to never see that again. I think many people are curious as to what he thinks right now. But the limelight is on Rodgers and well so - he has been patient and simply waited. His moment came and he stepped up to it. That's his team and will be for some time to come.

Meanwhile, if I'm Pittsburgh, I walk away with all sorts of questions. What happened to Polamalu? If he is the catalyst on defense, his disappearance, even on-field, has a crippling effect and if he can't play at a high level anymore, if he's suffered one injury too many, then the vaunted Pittsburgh defense might be in trouble on the back end. Not serious trouble, but trouble in the sense that they might go from a perennial top-5 defense to a top-10 or top-16 defense. I think this Super Bowl was also a chance for Tomlin to stake his ground. There are those who consider the 2008 Steelers to be a carryover from the Cowher area, a team that Cowher assembled and Tomlin simply had to not mess up. This was his chance to step out on his own and his team faltered. I believe this team is built for the long-term and that Tomlin will get his second ring, and Ben his third, but it'll take a little more time - and if they can't do it while veterans like Polamalu and Hines Ward are still playing at a high level, that journey becomes more difficult as time goes on, especially with Baltimore nipping at their heels.

Looking forward...

I expect a labor dispute that results in a lockout. It may not result in lost season games, but there will be a lockout. Bear in mind what that means - no trades, no free agency, and murky waters when it comes to signing rookies. There's a lot of interest to be had here. I think Roger Goodell is starting to want something sooner than later, perhaps realizing finally that a lockout - a lost season - would define his career as commissioner four years into his tenure. I have little pity for millionaire players and billionaire owners, but I do feel for the second/third-string players making the league minimum and moreso than that and more importantly, I feel for all of the local business that thrives because of football games. I feel for the stadium employees and the vendors who won't have jobs. I feel for the ball-boys and the groundskeeper. Remember that football is a business and as such, it employs and is lucrative for far more than the players. It's been said by other people than me, but it stands to reason - the true losers in any labor conflict here are the fans and those people who make a living (not millions) from football. So here's hoping that whatever extent this labor dispute goes to, it is resolved in time for the 2011 season.

Pierce's Picks - Conference Championship Weekend

Last week saw me go 2-2 again, putting me at an even 4-4 for the playoffs thusfar.

As for this weekend's games...

Sunday at 3:00pm ET -
Green Bay (6-seed) @ Chicago (2-seed)
A cold-weather divisional game in Chicago for two outdoor teams. This is what January football is all about right here. Chicago will have home-field advantage, but Green Bay is comfortable out in the cold, so I question just how advantageous that will be, especially with the two cities close enough that the crowd could very well be split. Both teams have solid defenses - Chicago's might be slightly better due to experience, but Green Bay's might be slightly hungrier being the younger of the two. Chicago has the better run game as well, giving them an advantage if the weather gets really bad and in the clock management department, too. However, I like Aaron Rodgers over Jay Cutler if the game is close and calls for some heroics. I think up to now, Chicago has been the luckiest team in the league, ever since that TD-not-a-TD catch by Calvin Johnson in the first game of the season. I like Aaron Rodgers and a better overall Packers team to give them a dose of reality. I think it'll be close and I take Rodgers in a clutch, cold-weather situation over Cutler any day of the week. Green Bay to the Super Bowl.

Sunday at 6:30pm ET -
NY Jets (6-seed) @ Pittsburgh (2-seed)
Much like the earlier game, this is going to be a cold-weather outdoor game between two outdoor, cold-weather teams. Much like the other game, both teams have solid defenses - in fact, these two teams have two of the best defenses in the league. So the question becomes, which offense can overcome? I believe have won their big game already - they beat the Patriots and the Colts. But I have to feel like they're out of gas. They've slain their dragons and the Steelers are a new beast entirely. Without the ability to run the ball on the Steeler defense, I don't trust Mark Sanchez to be the game-changing quarterback the Jets might need. He can manage a game just fine, but win it... well, we'll see. Ben Roethlisberger, meanwhile, has two Super Bowl rings and plenty of big-game playoff experience. He's a gamer, a winner and I believe that this game will come down to which QB can make the big play at clutch time - and in that case, it's no question to me, it's Big Ben. Pittsburgh to face Green Bay in the Super Bowl.

Week 1 NFL Preseason observations

Let's preface this quickly - it's preseason football. Preseason football is, in the great scheme of things, meaningless. It's a place where second- and third-stringers fight for jobs, it's not a place where first-stringers showcase. Part of this is because many teams run very vanilla schemes in the preseason, so as not to tip their hand to their foes and to give those men fighting for jobs the best opportunity to make an impact. Remember that the 2008 Lions, who infamously went 0-16, were undefeated in the preseason that year, 4-0.

A few Lions observations to start - Stafford looks good. He threw crisply and more accurately than I remember last season. Almost everything he threw was hitting his receivers in their hands and even the interception was more due to Jahvid Best than Stafford. I've been reading about his progress this season and it looks like it is translating to the field. He looked very comfortable with Calvin Johnson, too. Jahvid Best looks fast, but I have trouble buying him running up the middle at all. He's shifty, but he seems far better suited to cutback and outside running. If they throw him up the middle, he's going to get stuffed more often than not. The defensive line looks intimidating. I knew the first play the first-stringers were out because the Pittsburgh offensive line stopped moving backwards. Ndamukong Suh and Corey Williams look immense and indomitable - both men are moving other men. This will be the strength of the defense - and good thing, because the secondary is still severely lacking. Pressure on the QB will be necessary all game long and if a runner gets past the front-four, watch out.

On the Vikings - four sacks for Sam Bradford. The Viking defensive front looks solid, but even so, I think it's going to be a long year for Bradford. He doesn't have many weapons in St. Louis. Maybe that's why the Rams are reportedly pursuing Brian Westbrook - the more help they can get Bradford, the better. I still think that Favre will be back for the Vikings, but the debate is on between Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson already. I say wait on that - one preseason game does not make a starter when a position is in competition. The Vikings do look deep though, moreso than I expected. The offense looked sharp with a lot of its would-be starters out of the game. But then again, they were playing the Rams.

Other teams around the league - that was some comeback by the Arizona Cardinals against the Texans. Preseason or not, a 16-point second-half comeback is impressive and says a lot about the third-stringers in Arizona, their desire to play, and what Ken Whisenhunt is doing there... Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson still look like one of the best QB-WR tandems in the league... Green Bay lost to Cleveland, but Aaron Rodgers still looks like he's on fire and showing no signs of letting up. He is the best young quarterback in the league, I believe that's no longer a question - the Packers, regardless of the grace of how it was done, made the right decision letting Favre go... Washington looks a little frightening on offense... it might have been Buffalo's defense, in part, but their passing game looked solid, even with disgraced Rex Grossman leading the attack. And in typical Mike Shanahan fashion, the Redskins are absolutely flush with talented RBs - Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Ryan Torain - enough so that this team will always have fresh, reliable legs all season long. This is an invaluable trait of a Mike Shanahan offense and is a huge part of his success. I don't entirely buy Washington yet, but if I were in the NFC East, I'd be keeping my eye on this team... Carolina looks like a young team in transition, I'm not sure if I buy Jimmy Clausen yet, he looks impatient in the pocket for someone with so much hype about him... Baltimore looks like it will be a dangerous passing team this year, with Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton and Donte' Stallworth... Miami looked horrible in the rain, it seemed like neither Chad Henne nor Brandon Marshall could get a grip on the ball. I'm sure Tony Sparano is hoping that was only due to the rain.

Quick injury note - RB Ben Tate for the Houston Texans might be out for the year. That certainly alters their RB landscape and, assuming they don't add another running back before the season starts, means that the progress of Steve Slaton and Arian Foster become crucial to their offense. It also means that both Slaton and Foster get significant fantasy value boosts, since Ben Tate was getting talk of being the opening-day starter.