Well, with no news other than "still in limbo" on the NFL lockout, we return to our division previews. I'll wrap them up tomorrow, even if the NFL solves itself, and speak on that Sunday if necessary (fitting, right, talking football on Sunday?).
The NL Central - The only four-horse race in baseball.
(Standings as of July 22nd)
Pittsburgh - 51-45
Milwaukee - 53-47
St. Louis - 51-47
Cincinnati - 48-50
Chicago - 39-60
Houston - 33-65
The NL Central is going to provide the most entertaining race the rest of the way. For starters, being the odd six-team division in the league, it's got a little more going on than the rest - as a result, it also has four teams positioned as viable contenders.
I'll touch briefly on the Cubs and Astros, the two teams out of the race. The Astros are the worst team in baseball and unlikely to move much at the deadline to improve. They don't have a lot of pieces to sell, although there's been rumors that they could offer starting pitcher Brett Myers, although his stats and his contract might suck some of the value out of him. The Cubs have a lot more potential selling pieces - widespread speculation has surrounded Aramis Ramirez, but his no-trade clause could nix that. Carlos Pena is another potential trade piece, and I've recently read that Carlos Zambrano might be available, but he also has a no-trade clause. I expect Pena to move - he's a free agent after this season and would be one of the better bats on the market, it seems unlikely and unwise for the Cubs not to ship him.
Now, the contenders.
The Reds were the feel-good story of last year's NL Central, with MVP Joey Votto leading them to a surprise playoff berth. Votto continues to impress this year, but the Reds are facing surprisingly stiffer competition, not just from the Cards and Brewers, as to be expected, but from the Pirates. The Reds are still a solid team and I actually like them to make a late-season surge more than the Cardinals. Johnny Cueto is the revelation of their pitching staff, improving from his 12-7, 3.64 ERA, season last year to a 6-3 record and 1.98 ERA so far this year. Unfortunately, the rest of the starters for the Reds all have ERAs over 4.00 - Mike Leake sits at 4.11, and the other three are actually above 5.00. This is the reason for their 4-game deficit from the top. The pitching has to improve if the Reds are going to challenge; if it doesn't, they'll continue to slide. I think they'll finish third in the division ahead of the Cardinals, when all is said and done (and by a slim margin), but unless that starting pitching shapes up fast, it won't be better than that. Rumor has the Reds in the market for Ubaldo Jimenez, if the Rockies trade him, and I believe it. He'd be a big help immediately. If the Reds are going to contend this year, a trade for a starting pitcher to bolster that rotation is imperative.
The Cardinals were the favorite to win the division early, until staff ace Adam Wainwright was lost for the season in spring training. A mid-summer injury to stud hitter Albert Pujols further complicated matters, but to their credit, the Cardinals are hanging on and finding help where they need it. With five guys hitting above .300 and their everyday lineup all above .240, they're finding bats when they need them. Lance Berkman and Pujols both have 20+ homers on the year. Their pitching staff presents a problem, though - they're surviving without Wainwright, but it's clear that his presence is missed. Jaime Garcia has the best ERA of their starters, at 3.11. The rest of the staff ranges from 3.45 to 5.04. This is a manageable situation if you have a staff ace like Wainwright, but the Cards don't this year and it's why they're one game behind, with that gap likely to grow as the division race wears on. On the plus side, they're in good health as a team right now and if they can stay that way, it might make up the difference. I feel like the Cards' fate is out of their hands - they have a shot to win the division if they play good and steady, but I fear their starting pitching isn't good enough to sneak past all three teams ahead of them; those teams would have to collapse to some degree to give the Cards the opportunity they need. I don't expect the Cardinals to be trade-deadline sellers; I think they'll continue to push. Rumors have swirled around outfielder Colby Rasmus, but unless they can get a difference-making pitcher for him, it seems unlikely.
When Wainwright went down, I got a feeling that the opinion was the Brewers would run away with the division. They're a team built to win right now and wanting to, especially with Prince Fielder potentially leaving soon as a free agent. If they can't hold onto the slugger once he hits the market, then their best chance to win is before that happens. The Brewers have the most fearsome lineup in the division, in my opinion - Fielder has 22 homers, with Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun right behind him with 19 and 18, respectively. The weakest links in their lineup are infielder Casey McGehee (.226) and Carlos Gomez (.220). But Gomez is out indefinitely with a fracture, opening his lineup spot for one of the other outfielders - all of whom are hitting better than .220. The Brewers' pitching staff lacks a strong single ace; the man who was supposed to fill that role sits with the worst ERA of their starters (4.74) - Zack Greinke. The rest of the staff sits with ERAs in the 3.00s and low 4.00 range. If the Brewers can assemble a package, I could see them bringing in another starter, but it's hard to see where they might assemble that. I'm not hearing their name in many trade rumors, making me think they'll stand pat. In truth, the biggest problem the Brewers face is their abysmal record on the road - as of today, they're 20-33 on the road, a .377 winning percentage. Looking at their home record - 33-14, .702, the best in baseball, if they could pull their road record to .500 or close to it (say, .425), they should win the division and I think they will - although not without the Pirates, of all teams, giving them a serious run for it.
And so we come to those Pirates, the surprise, feel-good story of the year. The Pirates are winning in the simplest of ways - by playing good fundamentals. Like many surprise teams, they're doing what I've always said is key to winning - playing good fundamentals. Strip away the flash and flair and play good, fundamental ball and I think any club in any sport will make .500. Do it all season long and you might do better, although that comes down to your competition, too (you generally need to do better than that to beat the Yankees and Phillies, for example). But in the NL Central, it might be enough. The Pirates batting lineup is nothing special - the everyday lineup ranges from a high average of .280 (which belongs to the face of this team, Andrew McCutcheon) to .230. Only McCutcheon has more than 10 home runs (14). Like most teams that lack flash and play good fundamentals, they're winning with small-ball. Their pitching lineup has been reliable, supporting this type of play - Jeff Karstens leads their ERA with a 2.28, and Kevin Correia leads in wins, with 11. Correia, ironically, sports the second-highest ERA of the starters, a 4.04. The highest is a 4.15 and the other two are in the 3.00 range. Not bad. Of their primary relief staff (40+ innings pitched), the highest ERA is a 3.30. These are good numbers. Many pundits, when a team plays good fundamentals early, expects it to wear off. The Pirates continue to do so. If they keep doing it, the division is in their grasp - but with Milwaukee on their heels, the Pirates have to be aware that all it'll take is one slip. The team ERA and the resultant runs-allowed number (360) makes them hard to beat and is indicative of the kind of solid fundamentals on display this season at PNC Park. If the Pirates look to buy at the deadline, it'll be for a big bat, to add some pop to the lineup, but I doubt their ability to put together a tempting enough package for one - at least, not without jeopardizing the future that could be built on this year.
I like the Pirates, and my heart is pulling for them, because in the big-money, haves-and-have-nots sport of baseball, we love our Cinderella teams, but I think the Brewers will find a way to edge them out at the end of the season - but one thing is for sure: this could make for the best stretch race of the year.
Around the MLB -
San Diego 5, Florida 3 - Former Tiger prospect Cameron Maybin had a career day, going 4/5, scoring twice, stealing two bases, knocking in a run, and impressing with his glove to secure a sweep for the Padres.
St. Louis 6, NY Mets 2 - Jake Westbrook pitched eight magnificent innings of two-run ball after getting some offensive support from Albert Pujols right away in the first inning.
Toronto 7, Seattle 5 - Ricky Romero held on into the eighth for the Blue Jays, when the Jays' bats nullified the Mariners attempted eighth-inning comeback, when they tied the game at 5.
Atlanta 9, Colorado 6 - After dropping four runs in the first two innings, Tommy Hanson buckled down and the Braves surged in the third, fifth and seventh innings to split the series.
LA Angels 1, Texas 0 - Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson's epic pitchers' duel was decided by an unearned run in the second. Wilson pitched the complete game loss, giving up two hits and striking out eight. Weaver exited after seven, with seven hits allowed and six strikeouts.
Tampa Bay 2, NY Yankees 1 - James Shields won his rematch with C.C. Sabathia as the two dueled again. Sabathia pitched the complete game loss, while Shields exited in the eighth allowing only one run.
Detroit 6, Minnesota 2 - Justin Verlander rolled to his 13th win, going eight innings and allowing one run, while striking out nine. The Tigers have won ten straight against the Twins dating back to last September.
Arizona 4, Milwaukee 0 - Ian Kennedy was on a tear last night, going seven shutout innings and giving up only four hits. Justin Upton, Miguel Montero and Kelly Johnson all homered to backup their All-Star pitcher.
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