Wednesday, July 20th - The NL East Division Race Preview.

The NL East - Stacked from top to bottom.


(Standings as of July 20th)

Philadelphia - 60-36
Atlanta 57-40 (3.5 GB)
New York - 48-48 (12 GB)
Washington - 48-49 (12.5 GB)
Florida - 47-50 (13.5 GB)

Welcome to the most competitive division in baseball.  The AL East has nothing - NOTHING - on this division, where it's weakest member is three games below .500 and would be a division race contender in the AL and NL Central divisions.  It's almost kind of sad - all five clubs are objectively good teams, but realistically, this is Philadelphia's and Atlanta's race.

We'll start by looking at the three bottom teams in this division.  It's safe to say that none will be pushing for the division pennant, unless a minor miracle happens.  And, as you may have guessed, that puts all three teams in place to be sellers as the trade deadline nears.  The Marlins, at the bottom, really don't have much to sell off other than some relief pitching, though - and this is going to be a market stacked with relief pitchers, so they may stand pat.  The Nationals, as well, are a young up-and-coming team and unlikely to sell off any parts.  The Mets are in the most interesting position of most teams in baseball, in terms of selling - they have multiple names they could potentially put out there, including starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey, outfielder Carlos Beltran, third-baseman David Wright and shortstop Jose Reyes.  Beltran appears the most likely to move, with an expiring contract and the potential to be the best bat in the market.  Reyes would be a true free agent prize, but rumor from ESPN and SI is that he won't accept a trade without a contract and his price will be quite high - he's also extremely popular as a Met, so they may want to keep him as the franchise's face.  Wright's name continues to be mentioned, as a bat and an infield boost for teams in need of that, but his injury and the Mets not saying much on that front leaves me thinking he'll also be staying.  But Beltran is more than likely on the move, soon.

So, onto the contenders.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the consensus pick to win it all since the season started and they've not disappointed in that.  They are the best team in baseball.  They've stayed relatively healthy, with their only serious injuries at the moment being to Brad Lidge, who is rehabbing a rotator cuff, and Roy Oswalt's bulging discs.  Their batting lineup won't wow you - their batting leaders are All-Star Shane Victorino (.299) and Placido Polanco (.274).  But all of their position players are hitting over .225, leaving no glaring holes in their lineup, either.  No, the strength of the Phillies is in their pitching - their starting rotation is simply the best in baseball and, better yet, they have six viable starters when healthy.  Oswalt's injury gave way to more innings for Vance Worley - who has stepped up to the spotlight with a 5-1 record and a 2.15 ERA, the best among the team's starters.  Oswalt has the highest ERA among the starters, with 3.79.  Only Kyle Kendrick joins Oswalt as a starter with an ERA over 3.00.  This pitching staff is as good as advertised - better, actually, because of the rise of a rookie like Worley.  The Phillies can play small-ball off the bats because you aren't going to score much on them.  Despite their abundance of starting pitching and the lack of it on the trade market, don't expect them to trade away any pieces - with Oswalt's health in question, they'll hold onto what they have.  I'll be surprised if they make any moves at the trade deadline.

So what do the Braves have to do to catch up to their rival?  To start, get Chipper Jones and Jason Heyward back in the lineup and off the DL.  Like the Phillies and many other contenders, the Braves have all their position players hitting over .225, roughly.  Three of their everyday starters are hitting above .275, with Brian McCann leading the way with a .313 average.  The Braves have three solid starters in Jair Jurrjens (12-3, 2.26 ERA), Tommy Hanson (10-5, 2.73 ERA) and Tim Hudson (9-6, 3.44 ERA).  Derek Lowe and Brandon Beachy round out a respectable rotation.  Of further note is the stalwart Braves bullpen - with their primary relievers all pitching sub-4.00 ERA baseball.  This is a team built to contend with the Phillies, as they offer much of the same - solid pitching and respectable hitting.  The Braves offer the slightly better batting order, while the Phillies offer the slightly better pitching lineup.  Much like the Phillies, the Braves aren't likely to be wheelin' and dealin' at the trade deadline - their team doesn't have any gaping holes that have to be filled to continue to push the race.

So - who wins?  I say the Phillies, because I take pitching over hitting.  But it's going to come down to two things - health and head-to-head series.  So if you're a true baseball fan, mark your calendar for when these two teams play each other, because those games will make or break the division for them (although, let's be honest, the loser's consolation prize will be the NL Wild Card, anyway).

Around the MLB -


Baltimore 6, Boston 2 - Jeremy Guthrie's strong seven innings held the Red Sox, while the Orioles took advantage of Kyle Weiland in his first start, docking him for three runs before adding three more on the bullpen.
Pittsburgh 1, Cincinnati 0 - James McDonald dominated the Reds for almost-seven innings, while the Pirates bullpen took care of the rest.
Detroit 8, Oakland 3 - Carlos Guillen hit his first HR in the year as the Tigers steamrolled the A's to give Rick Porcello his 9th win.
Toronto 6, Seattle 5 - A walk-off sacrifice fly by John McDonald scored Rajai Davis in the 14th and handed the Mariners their tenth straight loss.
Tampa Bay 3, NY Yankees 2 - A key fly ball got lost in the Trop's lights, resulting in a 2-run seventh inning that put the Rays on top for good.
San Diego 4, Florida 0 - Tim Stauffer keyed up a six-inning shutout start for the Padres, while the bullpen took care of the rest.
NY Mets 4, St. Louis 2 - Dillon Gee allowed 2 runs over seven innings, while the top of the order provided the baserunners the Mets scored.
Phillies 4, Chi. Cubs 2 - Matt Garza went seven shutout innings before the Cubs' bullpen collapsed, with Sean Marshall blowing the save and the win.
Houston 7, Washington 6 - Both teams dinged eleven hits, but it was Houston's bullpen that came up big in the eighth and ninth, holding the Nats off.
Kansas City 4, Chi. White Sox 2 - After two runs in the first, Royals' rookie Danny Duffy held them scoreless the rest of the way, letting the bullpen get the finish while the offense took care of the rest.
Minnesota 2, Cleveland 1 - Down 1-0 in the ninth, Danny Valencia laced a walk-off, two-RBI single to spoil Justin Masterson's dominant, almost-eight inning start.
Colorado 12, Atlanta 3 - Ubaldo Jimenez continues to find his old form, limiting the Braves to 2 runs over almost-seven innings.
Milwaukee 11, Arizona 3 - The Brewers crushed three home runs in a five-run first inning, providing all the firepower needed for Yovani Gallardo to pitch the victory.
Texas 7, LA Angels 0 - Alexi Ogando shutdown the Angels over eight innings, giving the Rangers their 11th straight win and putting more distance between them and the Angels.
San Francisco 5, LA Dodgers 3 - Madison Bumgarner allowed three in the third, but that was all the Dodgers got as the Giants cruised the rest of the way.