Every week, I intend to update the blog with my picks for the week. No spread or anything along those lines, just a simple prediction on who will win each game that week. I'll log my record throughout the season and, at the end of the year, divide it down so that it reads out of 16, as per an NFL team's record. We'll see if I make the playoffs or not. So, without further ado, my picks for Week 1 -
Winning team is marked in bold.
Thursday Night -
Minnesota @ New Orleans
Sunday at 1:00pm EST -
Miami @ Buffalo
Detroit @ Chicago
Oakland @ Tennessee
Cincinnati @ New England
Carolina @ NY Giants
Atlanta @ Pittsburgh
Cleveland @ Tampa Bay
Denver @ Jacksonville
Indianapolis @ Houston
Sunday at 4:00pm EST -
San Francisco @ Seattle
Green Bay @ Philadelphia
Arizona @ St. Louis
Sunday Night -
Dallas @ Washington
Monday Night -
Baltimore @ NY Jets
San Diego @ Kansas City
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Final NFL offseason revelations.
A lot can happen in a week; this is a common theme in the NFL and it appears this season is no different already. We'll start with some NFC North news - namely, the odd surgery for Sidney Rice that will result in him missing at least the first half of the season. Immediately, this appeared dire for the Vikings and it still is a loss, no matter what, as Favre appeared to favor Rice to his other receivers. However, give the Vikings credit for having made what seems like a lopsided trade in their favor for Greg Camarillo, who was - in my opinion - a somewhat unheralded guy in Miami with fantastic hands, even if he lacks game-breaking speed. He seems like a good 3rd-down target for Favre, who I wouldn't be surprised to see develop significant trust in Camarillo fast. While I'm sure the Vikings would rather have Rice playing, the Camarillo move spares them having their receiving corps in disarray; now they'll still field one of the stronger receiving corps in the NFL with a likely four-some of Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, Camarillo and Greg Camarillo, not to mention tight end Visanthe Shiancoe and Adrian Peterson's ability to run a screen. Not a bad spot to be in after seeing your #1 WR go down.
Meanwhile, what's the preseason without a good quarterback controversy? Not surprising, the Arizona Cardinals didn't take long to lose faith in Kurt Warner's heir-apparent, Matt Leinart, who might be getting usurped with Derek Anderson as the preseason goes on. The Cardinals have a few options here, but I imagine Leinart has grown very weary of losing the confidence of Ken Whisenhunt's staff, who benched him for Kurt Warner two years ago, as well. It's becoming clear to me that Leinart's future might not be in the red-and-white of the Cardinals and, if it isn't Whisenhunt's desire to start him, it might be most fair to the young signal-caller to trade him, as well as most viable for the Cardinals, who still might be able to turn him for a 3rd- or 4th-round pick to any number of teams lacking capable quarterbacks to start.
It's become clear as the offseason has gone on that Roger Goodell will stop at nothing to push the sport to an 18-game regular season. I find this an intriguing concept only because I don't think football is particularly broken right now. It is by far the most popular American sport and I believe part of that is because it's a short season - 16 games makes every game meaningful (almost) and easy to keep track of. Adding games only complicates the game, risks more meaningless games than the couple that it has, and, of course, puts the players in harm's way for longer. I find that last point most interesting, given that player sentiment on the topic gravitates towards the additional damage per season an extra 2 games would put on them. It seems an odd card by the commissioner to play as a possible lockout looms for 2011. However, all of my reading suggests he is going to stick to his guns on this. Is it possible that he's doing this to use as a bargaining chip with the players in the collective bargaining negotiations? Personally, I see an 18-game season as detrimental to the sport compared to how it is now. The extensive, 4-game preseason may be a drag to casual fans, but I see the value to the sport of having that much time to evaluate personnel in actual game situations. The NFL isn't like the NHL or MLB, both of which have extensive farm systems to develop and evaluate talent. The NFL has the preseason and offseason workouts to figure things out - diminishing that time, in my opinion, will result in coaches having less time to evaluate prospects and thus may result in more busts than we already see, while deserving players - those rare gems that make their presences known in later preseason games - may end up going unnoticed. I remain open-minded, but as it stands now, I see a longer season as something extremely disadvantageous to the player base and I'll be interested to see how that plays out in the ongoing labor agreement negotiations.
I'll close this entry with my current radical theory. It's been well-documented that Tom Brady's involvement in the Patriots is less than it once was - he's older now, in his 30s, and not the same fired-up youngster he once was. He has a wife and children on the West Coast and it was clear this offseason that his priority was his family, not football. Even when I see him now, he looks less interested than he used to. This has led me to wonder... what does Tom Brady have to gain from playing for much longer? He holds several single-season records. He's won multiple Super Bowls. He's been a Super Bowl MVP and a regular season MVP. He won't ever threaten career passing records. At the same time, the Patriots - ever-thrifty front office they are - haven't been in much of a rush to get him resigned, as he is in the final year of his contract. They may be waiting for more news on the labor agreement, but part of me wonders... let's assume next year is a locked-out year, that there is (sadly) no football in 2011. I would not be surprised if Brady retired after this season, particularly if the Patriots don't offer him a respectable contract. Here's someone I could see being uninterested in watching his body deteriorate as he plays into his late-30s, not when he could be home with his wife and kids and growing old to still be able to play with those kids, or his grandkids. I could see him doing like Bill Cowher did and taking a nice broadcasting gig in the meantime. Anyway, it's a thought... we've seen better players than Brady leave the game prematurely so as to preserve their body. It's not outside of the realm of possibility. But it would certainly be different, a much-needed shock of reality to a sport that routinely has athletes put their bodies on the line at the expense of their futures... especially as the 18-game debate starts to close and become reality.
Meanwhile, what's the preseason without a good quarterback controversy? Not surprising, the Arizona Cardinals didn't take long to lose faith in Kurt Warner's heir-apparent, Matt Leinart, who might be getting usurped with Derek Anderson as the preseason goes on. The Cardinals have a few options here, but I imagine Leinart has grown very weary of losing the confidence of Ken Whisenhunt's staff, who benched him for Kurt Warner two years ago, as well. It's becoming clear to me that Leinart's future might not be in the red-and-white of the Cardinals and, if it isn't Whisenhunt's desire to start him, it might be most fair to the young signal-caller to trade him, as well as most viable for the Cardinals, who still might be able to turn him for a 3rd- or 4th-round pick to any number of teams lacking capable quarterbacks to start.
It's become clear as the offseason has gone on that Roger Goodell will stop at nothing to push the sport to an 18-game regular season. I find this an intriguing concept only because I don't think football is particularly broken right now. It is by far the most popular American sport and I believe part of that is because it's a short season - 16 games makes every game meaningful (almost) and easy to keep track of. Adding games only complicates the game, risks more meaningless games than the couple that it has, and, of course, puts the players in harm's way for longer. I find that last point most interesting, given that player sentiment on the topic gravitates towards the additional damage per season an extra 2 games would put on them. It seems an odd card by the commissioner to play as a possible lockout looms for 2011. However, all of my reading suggests he is going to stick to his guns on this. Is it possible that he's doing this to use as a bargaining chip with the players in the collective bargaining negotiations? Personally, I see an 18-game season as detrimental to the sport compared to how it is now. The extensive, 4-game preseason may be a drag to casual fans, but I see the value to the sport of having that much time to evaluate personnel in actual game situations. The NFL isn't like the NHL or MLB, both of which have extensive farm systems to develop and evaluate talent. The NFL has the preseason and offseason workouts to figure things out - diminishing that time, in my opinion, will result in coaches having less time to evaluate prospects and thus may result in more busts than we already see, while deserving players - those rare gems that make their presences known in later preseason games - may end up going unnoticed. I remain open-minded, but as it stands now, I see a longer season as something extremely disadvantageous to the player base and I'll be interested to see how that plays out in the ongoing labor agreement negotiations.
I'll close this entry with my current radical theory. It's been well-documented that Tom Brady's involvement in the Patriots is less than it once was - he's older now, in his 30s, and not the same fired-up youngster he once was. He has a wife and children on the West Coast and it was clear this offseason that his priority was his family, not football. Even when I see him now, he looks less interested than he used to. This has led me to wonder... what does Tom Brady have to gain from playing for much longer? He holds several single-season records. He's won multiple Super Bowls. He's been a Super Bowl MVP and a regular season MVP. He won't ever threaten career passing records. At the same time, the Patriots - ever-thrifty front office they are - haven't been in much of a rush to get him resigned, as he is in the final year of his contract. They may be waiting for more news on the labor agreement, but part of me wonders... let's assume next year is a locked-out year, that there is (sadly) no football in 2011. I would not be surprised if Brady retired after this season, particularly if the Patriots don't offer him a respectable contract. Here's someone I could see being uninterested in watching his body deteriorate as he plays into his late-30s, not when he could be home with his wife and kids and growing old to still be able to play with those kids, or his grandkids. I could see him doing like Bill Cowher did and taking a nice broadcasting gig in the meantime. Anyway, it's a thought... we've seen better players than Brady leave the game prematurely so as to preserve their body. It's not outside of the realm of possibility. But it would certainly be different, a much-needed shock of reality to a sport that routinely has athletes put their bodies on the line at the expense of their futures... especially as the 18-game debate starts to close and become reality.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Favre's back; Westbrook signs with 49ers.
I caught three personnel moves as the week went on and I find interesting aspects of all three. I'll get to the most obvious one last, since it begs for the most involved discussion.
First of all - Pete Carroll at Seattle sheds another former USC player, as the Seahawks trade former first-rounder Lawrence Jackson (DE) to the Lions. Now, I noticed this in part because I'm a Lions fan, but also because Carroll seems to have little love for his former players and it's always interesting to see a first-round pick from the last three years get traded for less. It's still unsaid what the Lions paid - an undisclosed draft pick - but it's unlikely higher than a 4th-rounder, from what I've read. For the Seahawks, it's another pick to build a new core around. For the Lions, they get another possible DE to add to the scheme; it's clear they don't have a lot of faith in their depth at DE. Cliff Avril is still a question mark as a starter. Working in a former first-rounder who is, admittedly, not a specialist in any regard (neither a prolific run-stuffer or pass-rusher) seems a logical move for a team lacking DE depth and still questioning one of their starters. I'll be keeping an eye on Mr. Jackson during the last three Lions preseason games (I'll be watching the Denver game later today).
Second up - Brian Westbrook selects a team! And lucky for him, it wasn't St. Louis! I mentioned before that he seemed headed there and it seemed logical - it gave the Rams a second viable RB behind Steven Jackson and made a nice insurance policy in case he doesn't get through the season. But you have to imagine that Westbrook, who has tasted the Super Bowl before but never won it, was less than enthused about joining a team that was only just embarking on a rebuilding cycle. Fortune smiled upon him, then, as the 49ers second-year backup RB retired suddenly, creating a sudden vacuum behind Frank Gore there. As soon as the news broke, I liked it. Gore and Westbrook are as different as two RBs can get and this will make the 49ers a better team. Westbrook isn't a tough-as-nails Singletary-type of guy, but he can provide an excellent check-down receiving option to Alex Smith and help spell Gore occasionally. Keep him to 10-15 touches (including receptions) per game and he should stay healthy and effective. And of course, they kept him off the roster of another team in the division, which is always a bonus, too.
And so we move on to the finale of this update, the big event of the week - naturally, the return of Brett Favre. For the record, I never assumed at any point this offseason that Favre would not return - so when news broke last month that he didn't plan to, naturally, I rolled my eyes. His return was inevitable to me; it seemed as much last year. I seriously doubt his ability to make it through a whole season this year and I seriously doubt that he will be as efficient as he was last year, but that, of course, remains to be seen. There is no question that - this year - he makes the Vikings a better team. But I remain disgusted at how the Vikings organization has just bent over for this man and let him write his own rules throughout. I've said before that while this gives them a better chance to win now, I'm not sure what the long-term effect of doing such a thing is. Certainly, Tavaris Jackson can't trust the coaching staff's word anymore and Sage Rosenfels is as close to a cast-off as you can be when you're earning $3m/year. So what the Vikings do after this year (assuming no Favre return then)... is a good question, but one they're happy to ignore for the moment. I suppose the most shocking thing about this is that the Vikings are now planning to restructure Favre's contract, particularly alongside his speech about how he's "doing it for the guys." Given, a lot of the numbers going around for the new Favre 1-year deal look inflated, because $8m of his salary last year was deferred to this year. Nonetheless, a lot of it seems unnecessary (sending 3 players to go "convince" him, and clumsily trying to cover it up?), but that's the state of the Vikings... a team in desperation, knowing that their window is only open for so long and that it is closing and that this man gives them the best chance to win while they have the opportunity... no matter the cost.
First of all - Pete Carroll at Seattle sheds another former USC player, as the Seahawks trade former first-rounder Lawrence Jackson (DE) to the Lions. Now, I noticed this in part because I'm a Lions fan, but also because Carroll seems to have little love for his former players and it's always interesting to see a first-round pick from the last three years get traded for less. It's still unsaid what the Lions paid - an undisclosed draft pick - but it's unlikely higher than a 4th-rounder, from what I've read. For the Seahawks, it's another pick to build a new core around. For the Lions, they get another possible DE to add to the scheme; it's clear they don't have a lot of faith in their depth at DE. Cliff Avril is still a question mark as a starter. Working in a former first-rounder who is, admittedly, not a specialist in any regard (neither a prolific run-stuffer or pass-rusher) seems a logical move for a team lacking DE depth and still questioning one of their starters. I'll be keeping an eye on Mr. Jackson during the last three Lions preseason games (I'll be watching the Denver game later today).
Second up - Brian Westbrook selects a team! And lucky for him, it wasn't St. Louis! I mentioned before that he seemed headed there and it seemed logical - it gave the Rams a second viable RB behind Steven Jackson and made a nice insurance policy in case he doesn't get through the season. But you have to imagine that Westbrook, who has tasted the Super Bowl before but never won it, was less than enthused about joining a team that was only just embarking on a rebuilding cycle. Fortune smiled upon him, then, as the 49ers second-year backup RB retired suddenly, creating a sudden vacuum behind Frank Gore there. As soon as the news broke, I liked it. Gore and Westbrook are as different as two RBs can get and this will make the 49ers a better team. Westbrook isn't a tough-as-nails Singletary-type of guy, but he can provide an excellent check-down receiving option to Alex Smith and help spell Gore occasionally. Keep him to 10-15 touches (including receptions) per game and he should stay healthy and effective. And of course, they kept him off the roster of another team in the division, which is always a bonus, too.
And so we move on to the finale of this update, the big event of the week - naturally, the return of Brett Favre. For the record, I never assumed at any point this offseason that Favre would not return - so when news broke last month that he didn't plan to, naturally, I rolled my eyes. His return was inevitable to me; it seemed as much last year. I seriously doubt his ability to make it through a whole season this year and I seriously doubt that he will be as efficient as he was last year, but that, of course, remains to be seen. There is no question that - this year - he makes the Vikings a better team. But I remain disgusted at how the Vikings organization has just bent over for this man and let him write his own rules throughout. I've said before that while this gives them a better chance to win now, I'm not sure what the long-term effect of doing such a thing is. Certainly, Tavaris Jackson can't trust the coaching staff's word anymore and Sage Rosenfels is as close to a cast-off as you can be when you're earning $3m/year. So what the Vikings do after this year (assuming no Favre return then)... is a good question, but one they're happy to ignore for the moment. I suppose the most shocking thing about this is that the Vikings are now planning to restructure Favre's contract, particularly alongside his speech about how he's "doing it for the guys." Given, a lot of the numbers going around for the new Favre 1-year deal look inflated, because $8m of his salary last year was deferred to this year. Nonetheless, a lot of it seems unnecessary (sending 3 players to go "convince" him, and clumsily trying to cover it up?), but that's the state of the Vikings... a team in desperation, knowing that their window is only open for so long and that it is closing and that this man gives them the best chance to win while they have the opportunity... no matter the cost.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Week 1 NFL Preseason observations
Let's preface this quickly - it's preseason football. Preseason football is, in the great scheme of things, meaningless. It's a place where second- and third-stringers fight for jobs, it's not a place where first-stringers showcase. Part of this is because many teams run very vanilla schemes in the preseason, so as not to tip their hand to their foes and to give those men fighting for jobs the best opportunity to make an impact. Remember that the 2008 Lions, who infamously went 0-16, were undefeated in the preseason that year, 4-0.
A few Lions observations to start - Stafford looks good. He threw crisply and more accurately than I remember last season. Almost everything he threw was hitting his receivers in their hands and even the interception was more due to Jahvid Best than Stafford. I've been reading about his progress this season and it looks like it is translating to the field. He looked very comfortable with Calvin Johnson, too. Jahvid Best looks fast, but I have trouble buying him running up the middle at all. He's shifty, but he seems far better suited to cutback and outside running. If they throw him up the middle, he's going to get stuffed more often than not. The defensive line looks intimidating. I knew the first play the first-stringers were out because the Pittsburgh offensive line stopped moving backwards. Ndamukong Suh and Corey Williams look immense and indomitable - both men are moving other men. This will be the strength of the defense - and good thing, because the secondary is still severely lacking. Pressure on the QB will be necessary all game long and if a runner gets past the front-four, watch out.
On the Vikings - four sacks for Sam Bradford. The Viking defensive front looks solid, but even so, I think it's going to be a long year for Bradford. He doesn't have many weapons in St. Louis. Maybe that's why the Rams are reportedly pursuing Brian Westbrook - the more help they can get Bradford, the better. I still think that Favre will be back for the Vikings, but the debate is on between Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson already. I say wait on that - one preseason game does not make a starter when a position is in competition. The Vikings do look deep though, moreso than I expected. The offense looked sharp with a lot of its would-be starters out of the game. But then again, they were playing the Rams.
Other teams around the league - that was some comeback by the Arizona Cardinals against the Texans. Preseason or not, a 16-point second-half comeback is impressive and says a lot about the third-stringers in Arizona, their desire to play, and what Ken Whisenhunt is doing there... Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson still look like one of the best QB-WR tandems in the league... Green Bay lost to Cleveland, but Aaron Rodgers still looks like he's on fire and showing no signs of letting up. He is the best young quarterback in the league, I believe that's no longer a question - the Packers, regardless of the grace of how it was done, made the right decision letting Favre go... Washington looks a little frightening on offense... it might have been Buffalo's defense, in part, but their passing game looked solid, even with disgraced Rex Grossman leading the attack. And in typical Mike Shanahan fashion, the Redskins are absolutely flush with talented RBs - Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Ryan Torain - enough so that this team will always have fresh, reliable legs all season long. This is an invaluable trait of a Mike Shanahan offense and is a huge part of his success. I don't entirely buy Washington yet, but if I were in the NFC East, I'd be keeping my eye on this team... Carolina looks like a young team in transition, I'm not sure if I buy Jimmy Clausen yet, he looks impatient in the pocket for someone with so much hype about him... Baltimore looks like it will be a dangerous passing team this year, with Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton and Donte' Stallworth... Miami looked horrible in the rain, it seemed like neither Chad Henne nor Brandon Marshall could get a grip on the ball. I'm sure Tony Sparano is hoping that was only due to the rain.
Quick injury note - RB Ben Tate for the Houston Texans might be out for the year. That certainly alters their RB landscape and, assuming they don't add another running back before the season starts, means that the progress of Steve Slaton and Arian Foster become crucial to their offense. It also means that both Slaton and Foster get significant fantasy value boosts, since Ben Tate was getting talk of being the opening-day starter.
A few Lions observations to start - Stafford looks good. He threw crisply and more accurately than I remember last season. Almost everything he threw was hitting his receivers in their hands and even the interception was more due to Jahvid Best than Stafford. I've been reading about his progress this season and it looks like it is translating to the field. He looked very comfortable with Calvin Johnson, too. Jahvid Best looks fast, but I have trouble buying him running up the middle at all. He's shifty, but he seems far better suited to cutback and outside running. If they throw him up the middle, he's going to get stuffed more often than not. The defensive line looks intimidating. I knew the first play the first-stringers were out because the Pittsburgh offensive line stopped moving backwards. Ndamukong Suh and Corey Williams look immense and indomitable - both men are moving other men. This will be the strength of the defense - and good thing, because the secondary is still severely lacking. Pressure on the QB will be necessary all game long and if a runner gets past the front-four, watch out.
On the Vikings - four sacks for Sam Bradford. The Viking defensive front looks solid, but even so, I think it's going to be a long year for Bradford. He doesn't have many weapons in St. Louis. Maybe that's why the Rams are reportedly pursuing Brian Westbrook - the more help they can get Bradford, the better. I still think that Favre will be back for the Vikings, but the debate is on between Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson already. I say wait on that - one preseason game does not make a starter when a position is in competition. The Vikings do look deep though, moreso than I expected. The offense looked sharp with a lot of its would-be starters out of the game. But then again, they were playing the Rams.
Other teams around the league - that was some comeback by the Arizona Cardinals against the Texans. Preseason or not, a 16-point second-half comeback is impressive and says a lot about the third-stringers in Arizona, their desire to play, and what Ken Whisenhunt is doing there... Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson still look like one of the best QB-WR tandems in the league... Green Bay lost to Cleveland, but Aaron Rodgers still looks like he's on fire and showing no signs of letting up. He is the best young quarterback in the league, I believe that's no longer a question - the Packers, regardless of the grace of how it was done, made the right decision letting Favre go... Washington looks a little frightening on offense... it might have been Buffalo's defense, in part, but their passing game looked solid, even with disgraced Rex Grossman leading the attack. And in typical Mike Shanahan fashion, the Redskins are absolutely flush with talented RBs - Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Ryan Torain - enough so that this team will always have fresh, reliable legs all season long. This is an invaluable trait of a Mike Shanahan offense and is a huge part of his success. I don't entirely buy Washington yet, but if I were in the NFC East, I'd be keeping my eye on this team... Carolina looks like a young team in transition, I'm not sure if I buy Jimmy Clausen yet, he looks impatient in the pocket for someone with so much hype about him... Baltimore looks like it will be a dangerous passing team this year, with Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton and Donte' Stallworth... Miami looked horrible in the rain, it seemed like neither Chad Henne nor Brandon Marshall could get a grip on the ball. I'm sure Tony Sparano is hoping that was only due to the rain.
Quick injury note - RB Ben Tate for the Houston Texans might be out for the year. That certainly alters their RB landscape and, assuming they don't add another running back before the season starts, means that the progress of Steve Slaton and Arian Foster become crucial to their offense. It also means that both Slaton and Foster get significant fantasy value boosts, since Ben Tate was getting talk of being the opening-day starter.
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